The Caitlin Counter: Is Caitlin Clark a viable MVP candidate?

Can Caitlin Clark join Candace Parker in winning Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season?

It’s the question that began this biweekly exercise to analyze Clark’s development as a pro and tracking her stats with Parker, the three-time WNBA champion who announced her retirement shortly ahead of Clark’s WNBA debut. It wasn’t some far-fetched claim, nor is it one now as end-of-season ballots work their way to voters this week.

Clark, a near-lock for Rookie of the Year, has cemented herself in the MVP conversation, even if winning is a long shot given the competition and the one-of-a-kind manner in which Parker won her ROY x MVP. And Clark could make her candidacy look even better with two games against two-time defending champion Las Vegas this week, though the Aces are without leading MVP candidate A’ja Wilson (ankle).

The Indiana point guard put together an all-time great rookie résumé and continues to smash records. Should she win ROY, she’ll become the 14th No. 1 pick to win the award in the league’s 28-year history. Only four of them were backcourt players and none was a point guard. If the season ended Monday, she would rank third among all ROY winners in scoring (19.2) behind Seimone Augustus (21.9) and A’ja Wilson (20.7), and blow away everyone in assists (8.5). Temeka Johnson leads all ROY winners at 5.2 apg; the overall rookie leader is Ticha Penicheiro in 1998 (7.5).

Her stats aren’t merely impressive for a rookie. They’re among the best in the league. She leads in assists and 3-pointers made (111, 3.1 per game) while ranking eighth in scoring, fifth in free-throw shooting (90.7%) and 13th in defensive rebounds (23rd overall in rebounds). She’s even top 25 in steals per game (1.3) and blocks (0.8). She not only set the rookie record for point-assist double-doubles (12), she broke the overall record set by veteran Courtney Vandersloot in 2017. The stat that will dog her is the pesky turnover average (5.7), a record she’d rather not possess.

The Fever offense she leads is the league’s best since the Olympic break and she has elevated a young team to the franchise’s first playoff appearance since 2016. They aren’t merely sliding into the playoffs; they’re sitting in the No. 6 seed and could pull off a first-round upset. From college to the pros, opposing coaches (and her own) consistently highlight how she makes everyone around her better by putting them in the best positions to succeed. In a battle of “most valuable,” she clearly belongs.

Clark winning MVP was always, and remains, a long shot. Forwards are historically favored in voting, putting her at an immediate disadvantage, and the winners typically helm a team that finishes top two. Wilson, who is poised to smash records despite her team sitting fourth, and Napheesa Collier, whose Lynx are the likely No. 2 seed after a surprisingly successful season, are widely viewed as the strongest contenders with many still pushing for Wilson to win a unanimous vote.

Parker, whose Los Angeles Sparks finished fifth in 2008, is one of the outliers. She is one of only four players to win MVP while finishing worse than third in the regular-season standings and the most recent to do so. Lauren Jackson (seventh in 2007, T-fifth in 2003), and Sheryl Swoopes (fifth in 2005) are the others.

Parker’s MVP win was unique, and may never be seen again, but it’s not only because of the numbers she put up in Year 1. It was the only time in WNBA history the MVP vote included fan voting in the totals, the WNBA confirmed.

Weeks before the end of that season, T-Mobile and the WNBA announced the opening of an online fan vote that would comprise 25% of the total MVP vote. All online voters were entered into a sweepstakes to win a trip to a Finals game, WNBA merchandise, a T-Mobile headset and a prepaid service card. It was the only season T-Mobile signed on to “present” (sponsor) the award after it went without a sponsor in 2007. Kia began sponsoring the award in 2009.

It’s impossible to tell if that fan vote helped push Parker, who brought new viewers to the league in a similar fashion to Clark, over the edge in MVP voting. She won with 276.79 points over Connecticut point guard Lindsey Whalen’s 242.08 points. Seattle point guard Sue Bird had 218.51 points in third. Because the vote was weighted between the two groups, an outside entity tallied it. The league did not disclose the fan vote totals nor the totals from the panel of 45 national sportswriters and broadcasters. The ballot requires voters to list their top five MVPs.

It’s easy to imagine a fan vote in 2024 would lean toward Clark. She nearly won the All-Star fan vote, falling 1,346 votes shy of Wilson (217,773 total votes). Would that fan vote have been enough to win MVP in this era? Probably not, considering Wilson would draw a significant number as well. Still, Clark will earn points in the MVP voting this year from some members of the 68-person panel who place her in the top five. Not many rookies build their WNBA careers on a foundation of being an MVP candidate.

Caitlin Counter

We're tracking Clark's numbers in comparison with Candace Parker, who was the only WNBA rookie to be named league MVP.

Season averages: Points (FG%/3FG%/FT%), rebounds, assists (turnovers), steals, blocks
Advanced stats: Player efficiency rating; offensive/defensive rating (via Her Hoop Stats); true shooting percentage, win shares per 40; plus/minus

Caitlin Clark (through 36 games)

Season averages: 19.2 PPG (42.3/34.7/90.7); 5.8 RPG, 8.5 APG (5.7 TOV); 1.3 SPG, 0.8 BPG
Advanced: 19.1 PER; 103.7/106.2 O/DRTG; 59.2 TS%; 3.4 WS; -1.6 +/-

Totals: 692 PTS (217-513/111-320/147-162), 209 REB, 306 AST (204 TOV), 48 STL, 27 BLK

Candace Parker (33-game season)

Season averages: 18.5 PTS (52.3/42.3/73.3); 9.5 REB, 3.4 AST (2.8TOV); 1.3 STL, 2.3 BLK
Advanced (full season): 27.4 PER; 112.5/88.4 O/DRTG; 58.2 TS%; 0.24 WS; 3.5 +/-

Totals: 549 PTS (214-413/10-22/124-168), 294 REB, 105 AST (87 TOV), 38 STL, 67 BLK

Caitlin Clark’s major record watch

Clark’s stats are as of Monday through 36 games. The Fever have four games remaining in the regular season and are guaranteed two playoff games.

Points (rookie): 744 (Seimone Augustus, 2006 Lynx) — Clark is 52 points away from breaking the record and at her current average could do it against Dallas on Sunday. She’s scored at least 10 in 32 games, one off tying the mark set by Augustus and Wilson (2018), and at least 20 points in 18 games, two off tying Augustus.

Assists (overall): 316 (Alyssa Thomas, 2023) — Clark, who has 12 games of double-digit assists, could easily pass this mark in her next outing. Thomas and Sabrina Ionescu (314) competed for the title last year when the league expanded to 40 games. Clark already passed Ticha Penicheiro for the rookie assists record.

3-pointers (overall): 128 (Ionescu, 2023) — Clark, who holds the rookie record already, is 17 3s from passing Ionescu. She would need to beat her 3.1 average each game to pass it in the regular season.

A familiar trajectory

Every couple of weeks we’ll compare Clark to another rookie in history based on one statistical category comparison.

It could be argued that Clark’s rookie WNBA season didn’t begin with draft night, but rather Diana Taurasi’s “reality is coming” remark that continues to reverberate.

The active reality is winning MVP as a guard is incredibly difficult. There are only two guard winners in the league’s 28-year history and neither were point guards. Cynthia Cooper, a 5-foot-10 Hall of Famer who led USC from 1982-86, won the first two with the Houston Comets in 1997-98. Cooper won unanimously the first year and with 37 of 45 votes (426 points of a 450 max) the second.

Taurasi won her singular MVP in 2009, when she received 27 of 39 first-place votes and 323 points to Tamika Catchings’ 163. She was listed as a guard/forward that year, ranked top 10 in nearly every category and led the Mercury to the No. 1 seed. It was the 6-foot former UConn star’s sixth WNBA season and she spent her offseasons overseas.

The legend who may be playing her final games began her career similar to Clark and is one of those 14 No. 1 picks to win ROY. She averaged 17 ppg (sixth), 4.4 rpg (28th), 3.9 apg (10th), 1.3 spg (25th) and 0.7 bpg (22nd) as a rookie with Phoenix, but the Mercury finished outside of the playoff picture. Taurasi didn't play in the playoffs until her fourth season, when she won the first of three championships. In that category, Clark is already ahead.