Caribbean-bound system increases formation chance while Tropical Storm Don turns, NHC says

The chances a tropical storm or depression could form have increased as a tropical wave makes its way toward the Caribbean while Tropical Storm Don has begun its run to the north Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook Friday, forecasters said the Caribbean-bound system is an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

The formation chance through the next week is now 40%, which is increased from 20%.

“While environmental conditions appear marginal due to dry air to the north, some slow development of this system is possible through early next week, as it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic,” the NHC said.

Forecasters give it a 10% chance to form into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days, and a 30% chance to form in the next seven days.

If it were to become a named system, it would become Tropical Storm Emily.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Don continues to churn as it makes its predicted shift to the north Atlantic.

As of 5 a.m., the NHC said the storm was located 1,045 mile west of the Azores headed west-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and stronger gusts. Its tropical-storm-force winds extend out 60 miles.

“A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast over the weekend,” forecasters said. “Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Weakening is forecast to begin later this weekend.”

The system is no threat to land, according to the five-day forecast, and it’s expected to lose its tropical characteristics by Monday when it weakens to a depression.

The storm began last Friday as Subtropical Storm Don before losing power to becoming Subtropical Depression Don, then finding tighter circulation as it moved south and becoming Tropical Depression Don this week and gaining enough strength Tuesday to become Tropical Storm Don.

It’s the fourth named storm of the season after a busy June that saw three tropical storms form.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.