Is Saoirse Ronan finally about to win her first Oscar?

Not many 30-year-olds can boast a CV to match that of Saoirse Ronan. She has already been nominated for four Oscars and, with her upcoming work in both The Outrun and Blitz, she could have six noms by the time she reaches her 31st birthday in April.

Either way, she'll be a record-breaker. Kate Winslet was 31 when she received her fifth nomination for Little Children and 34 when she got her sixth for The Reader. It was with that sixth nod that Winslet scored her first win. But could Ronan manage that big victory sooner?

There's certainly a lot of buzz around The Outrun. Ronan leads the movie as Rona, who has just emerged from rehab where she had been treated for alcoholism. She returns home to the Orkney Islands and tries to piece her life back together.

The Outrun premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year and has received critical acclaim. At the Telluride Film Festival, Ronan received a Silver Medallion for her performance. It's likely that this won't be the only award Ronan wins for The Outrun, but will she win an Oscar for it?

Reviews aren't a problem. The Guardian heaped praise upon Ronan's performance, writing that she is "at once titanic and quiet, and utterly convincing even in the very difficult art of acting drunk". Over at Entertainment Weekly, they wrote: "Ronan pivots from Rona's quieter moments of desperation to her feral drunken binges with an acrobat's skill, never playing one false note."

All of this certainly sounds like the type of work that could win an Oscar, so let's take a look at the competition.

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Best Actress is stacked this year, so much so that massive names such as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Angelina Jolie (Maria), and Zendaya (Challengers) could miss out altogether. There certainly isn't room for all of them.

Mikey Madison is expected to make the cut for Sean Baker's Palme d'Or winner Anora and awards watchers are also backing Marianne Jean-Baptiste for her latest collaboration with Mike Leigh in Hard Truths. There's also a fair amount of consensus around Karla Sofía Gascón's performance as the titular cartel leader in the musical crime movie Emilia Pérez — another Telluride award-winner.

That leaves two slots to be taken up by some of the names we've already mentioned, as well as the likes of Demi Moore (The Substance), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), and even Cynthia Erivo if Wicked turns out to be a hit. This is the crowded field into which Ronan's work in The Outrun has to battle.

So what about her other movie? Sir Steve McQueen's war movie Blitz has yet to premiere — it's opening the London Film Festival in October — so we can't be entirely sure of its awards prospects just yet. The film follows a young boy (Elliott Heffernan) roaming London during the blitz, with Ronan as the mother trying to find him and bring him home safely. It will arrive in cinemas briefly in November before showing up on Apple TV+.

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Ronan is officially entering the Best Supporting Actress race for this movie and therefore will avoid splitting her vote between two lead performances. The supporting category also looks a lot less competitive. Zoe Saldaña will almost certainly make it in for Emilia Pérez and the Academy looks set to honour Danielle Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson, having unforgivably snubbed her outstanding lead performance in Till a few years ago.

Outside of this, the category looks competitive, but open. If Blitz matches the quality of McQueen's other work, then Ronan's nomination is very much possible. That could see her competing on two fronts at the Oscars —a scenario that has happened 12 times before, with seven of those performers managing to win in at least one of their categories.

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Ronan is a clear Oscar favourite, even at her young age, and will almost certainly pick up the award at some stage in the future. But the evidence is mounting that 2025 could be her year, whether that's for one of her most raw, vulnerable lead performances or for another stellar supporting turn.

The Outrun is in UK cinemas from 27 September, while Blitz is released in cinemas on 1 November.