Football 301 Playbook: One big question for all 16 losing teams in NFL Week 1

Nate Tice

The NFL is back. That means people and teams are winning. That also means we have the correlated losers, too. For this week’s edition of the Football 301 Playbook, I looked at the 16 losers of Week 1, and one question that I have for each team. Some big, some small, some about players, some more arbitrary. Onto the words.

Result: Lost 18-10 vs. Steelers
Question: Is everything OK with the offense?

I mean, there are a lot of questions to ask, most of them Kirk Cousins related. What I want to focus on are the ramifications of Cousins not being able to move. Like at all.

First were the obvious tendencies that ESPN’s Field Yates tweeted Sunday night, with the Falcons passing the ball every single time they aligned in a shotgun formation.

There is also the move to pistol sets, which is a way to get to under-center plays, including the play-action plays that have been a key to Cousins’ success in the NFL (and really the whole reason you sign Kirk Cousins). Cousins, notably coming off an Achilles injury, did not have a single play-action dropback in his first game as a Dirty Bird. Sure, you can throw the ball without play-action, and it’s not exactly the magic wand that people may think it is. But it was supposed to be a big part of this iteration of the Falcons' offense. Get the Sean McVay guy, get the play-action quarterback, run the ball (in the Falcons case, outside zone to the left over and over) and bootleg off those plays to create explosive plays through the air. Cousins is good at it, and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson knows the drill, let’s do this thing.

The first week can lead to overreactions, but this game plan certainly was alarming. T.J. Watt, one of the best players at taking advantage of opponents' tells and tendencies, certainly seemed to notice. Even when his responsibility would be to contain the quarterback from keeping the ball in bootleg situations, Watt would simply race Bijan Robinson down from the backside without a care in the world of Cousins running past him.

There’s plenty of football to play, but the Falcons justifiably have raised a few eyebrows this year.

Result: Lost 33-17 vs. Cowboys
Question: How long does this go?

As exciting as this Browns defense could be, the elephant in the room is the quarterback. Deshaun Watson is not only failing to play up to his (fully guaranteed) contract. He is not even close to playing like a league average quarterback right now.

The Joe Flacco boon in 2023 was a bit of high variance and competency. While the Browns' passing game, both concepts and weapons, aren’t anything otherworldly, they are well above the NFL baseline. The Browns are right now operating like they have an inexperienced rookie quarterback, waving the white flag as soon as they get into third-and-long. The concepts show a lack of faith in their quarterback and the statistics back that up. Not a single one of Watson’s five pass attempts on third-and-long (7+ yards) situations went past the first-down marker. He scrambled on three others (none converting) and was sacked on the other two of his 10 dropbacks. The lack of points is enough to frustratingly point at for Browns fans, but all of the underlying numbers look rotted with this passing game.

The Cowboys' defense is tough, and defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer threw plenty of funky looks at Watson and his offensive live. But this is why you are paid the big money as a quarterback: to win in obvious passing situations and overcome less-than-ideal situations, not every time but at least sometimes.

Result: Lost 47-10 at Saints
Question: How was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

It’s not looking great on either side of the ball in Carolina. Everything right now is for glimmers of hope and some matter of consistency or creativity on either side of the ball. Bryce Young looks overwhelmed and overmatched, and the surroundings still aren’t strong enough to support him right now.

Losing defensive lineman Derrick Brown to a season-ending knee injury is another heaping of misery to add onto this pile. I want to have a more extended talk about the Panthers in a few weeks, and I’m hoping that there is more (any) positivity to chew on then.

Result: Lost 34-28 at Bills
Question: Should we be worried about Marvin Harrison Jr.?

No, you should not. The Bills' defensive game plan and Cardinals answer to their opponent were both variables for Harrison’s less-than-stellar first game statistics (one catch for 4 yards) and tracking numbers (sub-17 mph max speed).

The Bills “clouded” Harrison's side on 39% of the Cardinals' dropbacks, third-highest in the NFL in Week 1. Cloud meaning the Bills ran a Cover 2 variation, featuring a cornerback underneath and a safety over the top, to provide levels of coverage on Harrison’s side of the field. It’s a common tactic against upper-echelon passing threats and can lead to opportunities for other players and the run game. It also speaks to the respect Harrison is already getting.

The Cardinals tried to attack the softer areas of these coverages with routes like curls and underneath throws, something the presence of Harrison provided for others in this offense. It’s also something that will naturally put a cap to the top speed a receiver hits, given the stop-and-start nature of those breaking routes.

Harrison doesn’t win with his long speed; he’s a big and smooth technician. I am holding off on worrying until he plays in a game that didn’t feature gusts of wind over 25 mph.

Result: Lost 16-10 vs. Patriots
Question: When do we get to the fireworks factory?

Is there even a fireworks factory to begin with? The Bengals lost in Week 1 again. Joe Burrow, outside of a throw down the pipe to Ja’Marr Chase, looked passive for most of the game. The run game was again efficient, leading the NFL in rushing success rate for the week, churning out 5 yards over and over that has become the expectation in this offense built out of incremental gains.

Constantly getting 5 yards has become a negative with this Bengals offense, though. The offense just doesn’t feel threatening. Tee Higgins didn’t play and I know feel isn’t what you’re coming for in an article series with “301” in the title, but there is a lack of teeth in this passing game. That's how the beginning of 2023 felt as well. When you play a defense like the Patriots, who missed tackles at the lowest rate in the NFL in Week 1, then the offense looks and feels short and choppy like a scratched DVD (Blu-ray?)

Bengals players and coaches say they are comfortable with starting slow, and their coaching staff has shown that they can adapt and find answers midseason in the past (although former OC Brian Callahan is now the head coach of the Titans). Burrow seems to still be not all the way comfortable, at least not to the level we’ve seen in the past. He was working away from possible answers a hair too quickly and threw the ball further than 10 air yards only a half-dozen times (about a fifth of his possible attempts). It might be just another ramp-up period as the Bengals' offense settles into this year’s version. But that was a passing game that felt tight in Week 1

Result: Lost 32-19 at 49ers
Question: What's next?

The Jets' offense looked workable, albeit with limitations because of Aaron Rodgers' age and recovery from an Achilles injury. The Jets had to use tosses whenever they wanted to run to the outside, something that isn't a major component of this offense. This was likely not because of the want to continue to operate from under center but Rodgers' own limitations for reaching to hand the ball off. This is the same road block the 2015 Denver Broncos ran into when they wanted to major in outside zone but elder statesman Peyton Manning was unwilling or unable to hand the ball off consistently. The Broncos' compromise was more pistol formations (something we’ve already seen used with other older quarterbacks this year in Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford).

This defense also has strong aspects. Even when trying to corral the 49ers' explosive offense, there were still several good moments Monday night, but this team could use the presence of Haason Reddick, who is still in the midst of his fine-heavy holdout.

Result: Lost 27-20 at Chiefs
Question: How does this offense become more cohesive?

The Ravens' offense seemed more like a collection of ideas rather than a cohesive whole last Thursday night against the Chiefs. It featured formational variety, that “multiple” offense coaches love to tout, but was often disconnected and lacking flow.

A patchy and overmatched offensive line, undoubtedly still reeling from the loss of coach Joe D'Alessandris, also contributed to that lack of flow. How the Ravens mitigate this huge question mark will be key for how far they can go in 2024, especially to keep the offense from becoming Lamar Jackson scrambles and 3 yards of Derrick Henry falling forward. Thursday night, especially the end of the game which featured 195-pound running back Justice Hill in a one-on-one blocking situation against All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones on back-to-back plays, was not exactly encouraging. The Ravens have earned my trust as an organization to find answers. Tune in next week to see how they get out of this one.

Result: Lost 29-27 vs. Texans
Question: How many races to 30 can we win?

The Colts' offense featured an efficient run game with plenty of Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson. It also featured two of the coolest throws you’ll ever see in a game. That’s pretty much going to be the formula for the Colts scoring this year: Lots of jabs, crosses and some cartoonishly wound-up haymakers.

My defensive concern with the Colts has already reached critical mass. The Texans trampled all over the Colts on the ground on Sunday, which was supposed to be the better part of this defense filled with interesting and “meh.” Nineteen of the Texans' 33 running back runs were successful, including 10 going for first downs. That’s a tip of the cap to the improvement in offensive personnel for the Texans, but also a cause for concern for a Colts defense that is already facing injuries and hasn’t shown much it can lean on.

Result: Lost 20-17 at Dolphins
Question: How cool is this defense?!

I know the Jaguars lost, the offensive line and play-calling has question marks and issues, and there were still all too many mistakes by the offense in critical moments (that Travis Etienne Jr. fumble in the red zone is both very much Jaguars and very much him). The positives were that Trevor Lawrence had some top-tier throws and the defense under Ryan Nielsen looking prepared and was looking to hit.

The Jaguars held Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa to his third-lowest dropback success rate since Mike McDaniel took over as head coach in 2022. Outside of two plays later in the game in which Jaguars defenders were just a step too slow against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Jags' defense outperformed the Dolphins and created a suffocating environment for Tagovailoa. Nielsen deployed different varieties of man coverage to confuse Tagovailoa and take away the middle areas of the field that the Dolphins love to attack (Darnell Savage had some real nice moments in the robber role on some of these plays).

Several players, including former No. 1 draft pick Travon Walker, had positive moments as well. Jaguars defenders played fast and it’s as positive of a performance from a unit that gave up 300+ passing yards as you could hope.

Result: Lost 24-17 at Bears
Question: Is this defense legit?

Until Will Levis became a forever meme, the Titans were playing tough football against the Bears. They pressured Caleb Williams 12 times and held him to 93 yards passing on a sub-50% completion percentage (being a rookie quarterback is hard!). The Titans' defensive line was constantly getting push, with rookie T’Vondre Sweat making a great first impression alongside Harold Landry, Jeffery Simmons and Arden Key all doing their thing (Simmons made a real mess of things). Nine different Titans finished with a pressure on Sunday and six finished with a stuff (a tackle that went for zero or negative yards). I am not sure what the exact ceiling of this defense is, but that was as good of a performance as you could have hoped for from this veteran-laden unit.

The offensive line and run game (hello, Bill Callahan) even had some good moments against a very good Bears defense. Levis made a mess of the end of the game, but there were some good plays by this Titans team until that point.

Result: Lost 26-20 at Seahawks
Question: How can this offense create explosive plays?

I’ll start with the good: the run game looks solid! Even with Audric Estime hitting injured reserve, there are still a couple of running backs who can do enough on the ground.

Bo Nix, however, looked a lot like the safer, yet chaotic, player that he looked like during his years at Oregon. Nix is a good athlete; Jayden Daniels and Nix were the only two quarterbacks to have a 20 mph or faster max speed in Week 1, and he has plenty of arm. But Nix too often takes the safer options presented to him or defers to escaping the pocket and entering scramble mode. This would be fine if he could consistently make proper decisions and the offense was able to eke out constant efficient gains (see: Bengals, Cincinnati). Nix can find good quick-game answers. But as the play extends, that’s when Nix becomes unraveled, both in structure and out of it. Too often he interlaces those safer decisions with forays to the wild side of Why Would You Throw That Land and What Were You Looking At Island. Things like making ill-advised decisions after staring targets down and willing players open when he should be working to other solutions. Nix was 13-of-25 for 70 yards and two interceptions on throws that took 2.5 seconds or more while also averaging 4.0 yards an attempt on throws that were quicker than 2.5 seconds.

Being a rookie quarterback is really hard. But for this offense to work and to build a path to a competent starter, Nix will have to start becoming comfortable pushing the ball with anticipation and knowing the answers he has at his disposal. Or Sean Payton will have to find ways to manufacturer it. Nix is fast and he has a strong enough arm, but turning every pass over 5 yards into a different variety of prayer is just too tough of a way to live in the NFL.

Result: Lost 22-10 at Chargers
Question: Did anyone speak up?

The Raiders' staff features 25 offensive, defensive and special teams coaches. Plus Marvin Lewis as an assistant head coach and a game management coach.

Twenty-seven coaches under head coach Antonio Pierce. Not a single one figured it would be a good idea to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Chargers' 43-yard line when down by six points? Whether Pierce overruled anyone who spoke up or no one spoke up at all, either one is an issue with the process under which the 2024 Raiders should be operating.

This is a team with an upper-half defense, a strong-legged punter and Gardner Minshew II at quarterback. They should be trying to eke out points in whatever way possible, creatively and aggressively. Dan Campbell, a former player in his own right, instituted an aggressive philosophy from Day 1 while coaching an overmatched 2021 Detroit Lions. Any time to earn points, whether it’s a field goal instead of a punt, or a fourth-down try instead of a field goal altogether, those little decisions add up over time. For a team living in the margins on offense, despite a cool group of pass catchers, this is how the Raiders can sneak points and wins for a team that should be operating in that exact way.

Result: Lost 26-20 at Lions
Question: Can the Rams get healthy on offense and can they stop the run on defense?

The first question will be answered in a matter of time. The second one will require a bit of schematic help to fix.

The Lions earned nine first downs on the ground and were able to add 56.9% of win probability from the 28 carries they gave to their running backs on Sunday night. Of that probability, 24.6% was added in regulation, but the game was put to an end by an overtime steam roll that started with an end-around to wide receiver Kalif Raymond and then followed by runs of 21, 9, 3, 6, 8 and capped off with a 1-yard touchdown to David Montgomery. Those plays featured a variety of concepts, but often right at rookie defensive lineman Braden Fiske.

Stopping the Lions' run game is a tough ask for any defense, but it’s not a problem that will go away in the NFC West that features three of the potentially better run games in the NFL this season with the Seahawks, Cardinals and 49ers.

Result: Lost 34-29 vs. Eagles (in Brazil)
Question: When does Jordan Love come back?

I mean, that should be the only thing on everybody’s mind. The Packers' first game against the Eagles included plenty of slippage and referee shenanigans (not the fun and cheeky kind) that I am willing to throw it out like a horse handicapper with a race in the mud. Green Bay's run game came on as the game went along, finishing with a 55% success rate on 20 running back carries. Love had one stretch of head-scratchers sandwiched between the bouncy ball placement that make his game so interesting.

The defense has to add variety to their blitz package. What they threw at the Eagles was far too simplistic.

They did do some nice things as well, including containing Jalen Hurts as a runner (which is becoming a common theme).

Is Tucker Kraft their short and mid-term TE1? I’m a fan (as well as a fan of Luke Musgrave’s). Musgrave has tremendous long-term potential, but seems to have a permanent residency in Matt LaFleur’s doghouse. Kraft is a talented all-around player in his own right. He’s a good blocker who can win in-line and is a valid receiver who can get upfield quickly with the ball in his hands. Either way, I still like this Packers team, as long as Jordan Love is back there, that is.

Result: Lost 37-20 at Bucs
Question: Really, Kliff?

The Commanders' offense feature plenty of quick throws, static formations and a little too much reliance on iso ball. Lining up top receiver Terry McLaurin almost exclusively on the left side is a choice, and it may have had something to do with his quiet day: two catches, 17 yards.

This was exactly how Kliff Kingsbury’s offense was in Arizona. It’s something better defenses start to clamp down and it can often lead to frustratingly short drives featuring runs, screens and 4-yard stick routes.

(Next Gen Stats)
(Next Gen Stats)

Jayden Daniels was not great against the blitz in his first start (being a rookie quarterback is hard!), going 5-of-9 for 45 yards while taking two sacks. But he had some real positive moments as a scrambler and with his general accuracy. When he felt pressure, though, he was looking to scramble, finishing with the eighth-highest scramble rate since 2020 by a quarterback with a minimum of 20 dropbacks. And he did not attempt a single pass while throwing on the run in the entire game (even Kirk Cousins had one throw on the move Sunday). Daniels did do a fairly good job of avoiding big hits (until the very end of the game during a goal-line sequence that might as well have been an Oklahoma drill featuring Daniels). As a thrower, Daniels was accurate and efficient and finished in the upper half in terms of success rate, something that tracks from his college career.

This offense is going to continue to feel tight, despite some quality run game designs, if Kingsbury doesn’t start to add layers, though, no matter how many yards Daniels runs for or underneath throws he hits.

This defense also has the makings of a bottom-tier unit. So, get ready for plenty of plays when the Commanders are on your television.

Result: Lost 28-6 vs. Vikings
Question: Can Dexter Lawrence win Defensive Player of the Year?

Lawrence started the 2024 season essentially blowing up the Vikings' first offensive drive of the season and he didn’t let up.

Lawrence has already earned a couple of second-team All-Pro nods, and you can chalk it up to fresh legs, but he somehow looks even better in Week 1. As Giants reporter Justin Penik noted, Lawrence earned a pressure on Sam Darnold on nearly a third of the Vikings' dropbacks.

Now Ed Ingram is an NPC at guard for the Vikings, but Lawrence has now demonstrated the ability to wreck the run and pass versus any type of competition, overwhelming singled-up blockers and making a mess of any double-teams that work his way. The Giants' offense might put this defense in too many bad situations for it to overcome, but Lawrence is going to do his damndest on every play to try and even the odds for the Giants.

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