After latest realignment moves, which other schools will the Pac-12 try to scoop up?

The Pac-12 is back.

Well, almost.

The “Conference of Champions” is on the way to rebuilding, starting with the acquisition Thursday of four Mountain West schools: Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno State. They will begin play in the new league in the fall of 2026.

That gets Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould to six members with Oregon State and Washington State. She needs at least two more additions to reach the NCAA’s minimum threshold to qualify as an FBS conference, and she has a matter of only months to do it. The Pac-12 must reach eight members by July 2026, the end of the NCAA’s two-year grace period that allows a league to reestablish itself.

That seems like a long time. In the world of such massive and costly moves, it is not. The Pac-12 would prefer to have its full membership during negotiations for a new television deal, something it would probably like to get solidified sooner rather than later. Any TV network would prefer to know what it's buying before it bought it.

In its statement announcing the new additions Thursday, the Pac-12 provided criteria for additional new members. But as is often the case, brand power, on-field success and television markets will move the needle more than anything. That said, there are other factors to consider, such as total membership number. You don’t want to spread yourself too thin and take on programs that don’t add enough value.

Remember, television contracts serve as the biggest revenue generator for athletic departments. You must distribute television money — often evenly — to your members. With each new member, you decrease the amount of the whole.

There is something else to consider: exit and penalty fees for potential new members. These can be costly, and despite the narrative that the Pac-12 has endless money to pay for all of these transactions, it does not. Yes, the conference has more than $100 million in new revenues due to it through bowl contracts, CFP distribution and NCAA tournament units, but it is using many of those funds for operational purposes.

But enough about all of this. Who else could or would the Pac-12 invite? The league wants to be known as the “best of the rest” outside of the power four leagues. Who would agree to make the move? And what’s the ripple effect on the other G5 conferences and college sports as a whole?

ACC and Big 12

The Pac-12’s first option was not to rebuild. It was a fine option and one it was comfortable with, but it certainly wasn’t the priority. Oregon State and Washington State’s top option was the same as all the other schools left searching for a home after Washington and Oregon left for the Big Ten: They wanted to join an established power conference.

Overtures to the Big 12 and ACC went nowhere. They showed little to no interest as they did last fall when the leagues took Colorado, Utah, Arizona State and Arizona (Big 12), and Stanford and Cal (ACC).

There was hope, expressed even publicly at times, that a significant realignment event in the ACC — FSU, Clemson and others exiting — would trigger a domino effect that could benefit the Pac-12’s future. Perhaps they could serve as replacements and form an ACC West Coast wing with Stanford and Cal? Or, maybe the Cardinal and Bears would be willing, in an ACC left in disarray, to join it in its rebuild quest?

Neither has happened.

That leaves the Pac-12 here — rebuilding with the addition of Mountain West schools. And before you ask, Stanford and Cal did sign the ACC grant of rights, binding them to the league until 2036 as the current deal is written (this is not new information and was reported last fall when the two programs joined the conference).

For now, as the ACC agreement is written, they are not candidates in a Pac-12 rebuild. But, one day, if the ACC starts losing members, could they be? Sure.

For now, that’s not the case, and it would likely take a catastrophic event to convince the two to turn down millions each in ACC television revenue to return to the Pac-12. While they are not yet receiving full ACC shares, they will eventually get them and those figures are expected to be significantly more than the TV value of the Pac-12 (as much as triple the figures).

Subscribe to College Football Enquirer on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

American Athletic

If the Pac-12’s next preferred expansion targets were in the Mountain West beyond the four already named, it'd likely have taken them this week.

It didn’t — a sign that the Pac-12 first may look for easterly candidates. That includes a host of programs, many of them now members of the American Athletic Conference, for years the premier Group of Five league in college athletics.

The AAC has the most attractive members from a TV market, brand value and on-field success perspective, including Memphis, Tulane, UTSA, North Texas, Rice and even one in Florida (South Florida). The Texas schools would make strong travel partners with one another. Same goes with Tulane and Rice, two high academic institutions that are in close proximity (though Rice is a hard sell).

If given the chance — not all will get interest from the Pac-12 (this is speculative) — these schools must decide if moving to a conference across the country, in a completely different region and cultural fit, is offset by the Pac-12’s brand and television value.

The problem: We don’t really know its TV value, but those at the Pac-12 estimate it to be higher than the best Group of Five deal, which is the American, which distributes to its original members about $8-10 million annually.

If the Pac-12 is at $10-12 million per school, is that worth a move across the country? What about $15 million? That latter figure seems high, but who knows.

Don’t expect new AAC commissioner Tim Pernetti to not be proactive. According to those with knowledge of his thinking, Pernetti is interested in pursuing Mountain West programs, such as Air Force. Pernetti already has Army and Navy in his conference. Air Force is a sensible and attractive addition, and the AAC could offer more in distribution than the Mountain West, which is at about $5-6 million.

The American isn’t the only league with teams of interest to the Pac-12. The Sun Belt has Texas State, an up-and-coming athletic department with a burgeoning football program, large student body and a location just outside of the bursting metro of Austin.

Something to also keep in mind with all this: The Pac-12 lost its designation as an autonomous/power conference, a moniker that gave it more voting privileges within NCAA governance and more revenue in the CFP distribution model.

While unlikely to earn back the status, there is a “look-in” provision in the CFP contract after the 2027 playoff that can be triggered to re-evaluate revenue distribution. The Pac-12, if stable enough with enough brands, could make an argument for more CFP money.

Mountain West

What if the Pac-12 is stymied out East?

That leaves it with few choices except to turn its attention again to Mountain West members.

Many around college athletics expressed surprise that UNLV was not included in the Pac-12’s initial phase of expansion. Located in a major city and with a football program on the way up, the potential is there.

However, politics are at play. According to those with knowledge of the discussions, separating the two — the University of Nevada and UNLV — is a hurdle. It doesn’t mean it cannot be done. And, perhaps at a later date, they could eventually move together to the Pac-12. Or the hurdle is crossed and UNLV moves alone?

The Pac-12's interest in other Mountain West programs is unclear, and there is, again, a reason it probably did not invite them in the first phase.

But the question looms: What does the Mountain West do?

Commissioner Gloria Nevarez is not sitting idly by. In fact, the league has vetted possible members, something that traces back to last year when San Diego State and Boise State were in consideration to join the old Pac-12.

New Mexico State, new to Conference USA, makes geographic sense. So does UTEP, also in CUSA. Both programs would likely see a doubling of annual distribution. Could they even get a signing bonus? The Mountain West is due as much as $110 million in exit and penalty fee money from the departing four members and the Pac-12.

Tarleton State, an up-and-coming FCS program with tons of money and potential residing just outside of Dallas-Fort Worth, is an option as well. And what about FCS teams like North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Montana State and Montana?

Keep in mind that the NCAA recently increased the entrance fee for those moving from FCS to FBS to a whopping $5 million.

Basketball schools

Back to the Pac-12.

There are plenty of West Coast basketball brands that may be attractive to any new Pac-12 conference. The easy one is Gonzaga, a program with a storied basketball tradition that routinely advances to the Sweet 16 and has made two trips to the Final Four since 2017.

For the longest time, power conferences have flirted with the Zags, which doesn’t offer football. The latest run came via the Big 12, which entered into serious deliberations last year with the school before deciding against the addition.

Gonzaga makes sense geographically, too, as it is located just 80 miles north of Washington State’s campus. There are more programs out West that offer basketball success. Saint Mary’s, for instance, located in Moraga, California.

But the Pac-12 doesn’t want to grow too big as it dilutes the revenue distribution of other programs.

And, so, the Pac-12’s search to rebuild marches onward. It’ll almost certainly move East first, then back West, then… well, who knows.

Washington State president Kirk Schulz, a key leader in the rebuilding effort, suggested to Yahoo Sports in an interview earlier this week that more movement is on the way.

“Five years from now, when these grants of rights are up, there’s likely to be more shuffling again. How do I prepare Washington State to have choices down the road?”