2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages
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On 21 July, Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris. This historic move changed the landscape of the election and how many felt about the race. As the election enters its final weeks, Guardian US is averaging national and state polls to see how the two candidates are faring. We will update our averages once a week, or more if there is major news.
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Latest analysis: After two weeks of a roughly three-point Kamala Harris lead, Guardian US polling averages have Donald Trump and Harris tied for the first time since we started tracking the polls in August. Many of the high-Harris enthusiasm polls from late August are dropping off of our 10-day rolling average, while several new high-quality polls have Trump in a narrow lead. Though the results are within the margins of error for the polls, Trump’s lead in those individual polls has led to a big increase in his national average.
The first presidential debate between Harris and Trump is Tuesday night. The last presidential debate was arguably one of the most consequential in modern political history, so we will be closely following the impact that the candidates’ performance has on their national standings. – Will Craft, 10 September
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Notes on data
To calculate our polling averages, Guardian US took a combination of head-to-head and multi-candidate polls and calculated a rolling 10-day average for each candidate. Our tracker uses polls gathered by 538 and filters out lower-quality pollsters for national polls. Our state polling averages use a lower quality threshold for inclusion due to the small numbers of state polls. If there were no polls over the the 10-day period, we leave the average blank.
Polling averages capture how the race stands at a particular moment in time and are likely to change as the election gets closer. Averages from states with small numbers of polls are also more susceptible to errors and biases. Our averages are an estimate of the support that the candidates have in key swing states and on the national stage. The election is decided by the electoral college, so these averages should not be taken as a likelihood of winning the election in November.
Read more about the US election:
Can 0.03% of votes really swing the presidential election?
Sign up for The Stakes: a free newsletter on the 2024 US presidential election
Read our polling analysis from 7 September, 4 September and 30 August
Candidate illustrations by Sam Kerr
