The choice in this general election couldn’t be clearer

Six long weeks of election campaigning are coming to an end, with the polls showing hardly any change in Labour’s lead from when the contest was called on May 22. Sir Keir Starmer is still on course to become prime minister on Friday with one of the biggest parliamentary majorities in history.

But while his party remains 20 points ahead of the Tories, this gap flatters to deceive. The polls have also shown a steady fall in support for Labour, from around 44 per cent of the vote share to as low as 38 per cent. Labour has maintained its distance from its opponents because Reform UK has been siphoning support from the Conservatives. If some of those voters return to the fold on Thursday, Sir Keir is still likely to win but by less of a margin than predicted.

If there were to be a uniform swing from Tory to Labour, then 38 per cent of the vote would not be enough to secure a Labour victory. It would be the largest party but would need deals with others.

But the presence of Reform and tactical voting in Tory-held seats could hand dozens of constituencies to Labour and the Lib Dems, much as in 1997 when the Tories were reduced to around 160 MPs. Some in the party now think that would be a good result on Thursday and confound predictions of a total wipeout.

Undecided voters need to consider the consequences not only of giving a party with no popular mandate such a large majority, but of wrecking the one party that will provide any opposition. The Lib Dems or Scottish Nationalists (who face their own reckoning) will back most of what Labour is planning. It really will be a one-party state.

Some on the Right want to punish the Tories for failing over 14 years to challenge the social democratic consensus. They hope then to see the party rebuild in opposition. Yet by voting Reform, or not at all, they risk seeing all the things they criticise the Tories over – from climate change policies to immigration and tax rises – worsen under Labour.

On the BBC yesterday, Rishi Sunak remained combative and hopeful, as indeed he must. He said that he was proud of his campaign, despite the troubles it has faced.

It has alerted the electorate to the dangers of Labour and the stark choice the country faces. If voters are not persuaded yet, they will find out soon enough.