Europe’s centre is still holding – for now
The success of Right-wing parties in the European parliament elections has confirmed the improving fortunes of populists and nationalists across the bloc. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party took more than 30 per cent of the vote and forced Emmanuel Macron into calling a snap election.
Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party came in comfortably ahead of its rivals while in Germany the Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant gains, with the Social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz sliding to its worst result in a national poll. In Austria, the populist Freedom party came top, just pipping the conservative People’s party and the Social Democrats.
Yet, despite these advances, the pro-EU centrists still emerged on top. In Germany, the traditionalist Christian democratic Right won a commanding victory with 31 per cent of the vote. Geert Wilders’ anti-immigration Party for Freedom in the Netherlands did less well than expected, while Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary performed below expectations.
Pro-EU parties topped the polls in Spain and Poland. The upshot is that in the Strasbourg parliament pro-EU centrists, Greens and socialists will hold on to a majority of seats, boosting the chances of Ursula von der Leyen securing a second term as European Commission president.
Socialists won the largest share of the vote in Malta, Romania and Sweden, helping the centre-Left retain its position as the parliament’s second-largest group, albeit far weaker than in the 1990s.
While the narrative is of a pro-Right surge across Europe, the reality is much more complex. To what extent is this a vote against incompetent mainstream parties that promise much but deliver little?
If they (including the Tories here in the UK) were to address some of the concerns felt especially by young people, who are drifting away from the centre ground, they could burst the populist bubble.
President Macron took everyone by surprise when he responded to the results by calling a snap election to the French assembly just a few weeks before Paris hosts the Olympics. He has taken a huge gamble since the National Rally looks likely to win, leaving him a lame duck for the remainder of his term and ushering in a period of “cohabitation”.
Mr Macron may have calculated that voters will see whether Ms Le Pen and her protege Jordan Bardella are as effective in government as they are an opposition, a judgment that will be critical when it comes to electing a new president in 2027.
