Fact check: Excess deaths are far below pandemic levels

Reform UK’s “contract“, published on June 17, includes the claims: “Excess deaths are nearly as high as they were during the Covid pandemic. Young people are over-represented.”

Evaluation

Excess deaths are far lower than during the Covid-19 pandemic: from an average of more than 2,000 excess deaths per week during the first 52 weeks of the pandemic, they have fallen to around a quarter of that in 2023 (the most recent comparable period).

More young people aged 0-24 have died than expected in the first four months of 2024, the only age group for which this is the case. However, across 2023, excess deaths were much more likely among older people.

The facts

In the Reform UK manifesto – which the party calls its “contract” – published on June 17, under the heading “Excess Deaths and Vaccine Harms Public Inquiry”, the party says: “Excess deaths are nearly as high as they were during the Covid pandemic. Young people are over-represented.”

Excess deaths data is monitored by the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) for England. It is calculated by comparing the number of deaths reported each week to an average for the preceding five years.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, excess deaths peaked in the week ending April 17 2020, when 11,683 more people died than expected. Over the 52 weeks of data recorded for the pandemic, between March 21 2020 and March 19 2021, an average of 2,072 excess deaths were recorded each week.

This is almost four times the 519 weekly excess deaths recorded between December 31 2022 and December 29 2023.

Since the end of 2023, the OHID has changed the methodology it uses to calculate excess deaths, and it is not comparable with the previous system.

The OHID has published revised figures for 2023 under the new methodology, showing an average of 209 excess deaths each week. In the first four months of 2024, the most recent data published, 729 fewer people have died than expected on average each week.

In the first four months in 2024, people aged 24 and younger were the only age group with more deaths than expected, with around six excess deaths per week.

But across 2023, by far the highest number of excess deaths was in the 85-plus age group, with 203 excess deaths per week on average, compared with six (again) for those aged 0-24.