Reform predicted to win 18 seats

Follow the latest general election polls

Reform UK will win 18 seats and a higher vote share than the Conservatives at the general election, a new MRP poll has predicted.

Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson would all win seats if the results were replicated on July 4, with Reform’s forecast vote share of 17 per cent two points ahead of the Conservatives on 15 per cent.

The poll of almost 20,000 voters predicts that the Tories will be pushed into third behind the Liberal Democrats, with Sir Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition.

The Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus survey, conducted between June 14 and 24, also forecast that Labour would win a large majority.

The Lib Dems were forecast to win 71 seats, 11 ahead of the Conservatives on 60 – down 305 from the 365 they won in 2019.

It would represent the worst Tory election result since 1900.

Rishi Sunak and a swathe of senior ministers would lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, and Oliver Dowden, the Deputy Prime Minister.

A number of Tories tipped to run for the party leadership in the event of an election defeat were also forecast to lose their seats. They include Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary, and Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons.

Senior Tories on course to survive the Labour landslide include James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, Tom Tugendhat, the security minister, and Laura Trott, the chief secretary to the Treasury.

Suella Braverman, the former Home Secretary, is predicted to be ousted by Reform in Fareham and Waterlooville.

She said last month that she would “welcome” Mr Farage joining the Conservatives, a prospect which he dismissed because of what he said were “high tax, high immigration” Tory policies.

The survey represents Reform’s best polling return to date. Their previous best was on June 15 when Survation predicted the party would win seven seats.

Mr Tice, the party’s chairman, said the “bombshell poll” represented an “election bloodbath”.

‘Vote Reform, get Reform’

Rupert Lowe, the former Ukip MEP who was predicted to win in Great Yarmouth, said: “Another mega-poll just out. Reform winning in EIGHTEEN seats. Great Yarmouth is one of them.

“A vote for the Tories here is a wasted vote. Only Reform can beat Labour. Vote Reform, get Reform!”

Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “The Conservatives are predicted to be in third place in terms of both votes and seats. That would be a disaster for them.

“Labour look set for a massive landslide, but with about one million fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017.

“More than one voter in every three is going to vote for a party other than Labour or the Tories, which shows many people want change but are not thrilled by Labour.”

07:29 PM BST

That’s all for now...

Please follow our live coverage of the final head-to-head debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer here.

07:24 PM BST

Labour would ‘run riot’ in Government, says Cleverly

James Cleverly has warned that Labour would “run riot” in Government if Sir Keir Starmer wins the general election.

“Where Labour runs things, they run it badly,” he said. “We have a plan, they do not.

“Where we will bring people’s taxes down, Labour will put people’s taxes up. Of course, I would rather be talking about that choice.”

07:17 PM BST

Cleverly attacks Labour over ‘hundreds of billions’ tape

James Cleverly has attacked Labour after a leaked audio clip revealed a shadow minister saying that reaching Labour’s target for decarbonising the economy will cost “hundreds of billions” of pounds.

“Today we’ve the seen the person who’d be the number two at the Treasury in a Labour government, they have basically said  that they are hiding the true costs of their green taxes,” the Home Secretary told Sky News.

“He said £28 billion was a tiny amount of money and actually the figure would be hundreds of billions.

“That’s come to light today and he said in the audio clip that they would be dishonest about the numbers because of media scrutiny.

“So tonight I think the Prime Minister will push for honesty.”

07:11 PM BST

Who won the previous debates?

As the clock ticks down to the final head-to-head between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, you can find out who won the previous televised debates here.

06:45 PM BST

Exclusive: Labour’s net zero target could cost hundreds of billions, leaked audio reveals

Reaching Labour’s target for decarbonising the economy will cost “hundreds of billions” of pounds, a shadow minister has disclosed in a recording obtained by The Telegraph.

Darren Jones, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said the £28 billion per year originally allocated to Labour’s green investment plan was a “tiny” amount.

He said the fact that Sir Keir Starmer had downgraded his investment plans from £28 billion to £4.7 billion “made it sound as if we basically junked the whole thing but we definitely haven’t”.

Mr Jones told a public meeting in Bristol that private capital would have to be used to upgrade infrastructure, but “public subsidy” would still be needed alongside that.

Read the full story from Associate Editor Gordon Rayner here.

06:35 PM BST

‘Something happening out there,’ says Farage after new poll

06:25 PM BST

Pictured: Cleverly at the wheel

06:09 PM BST

Betting row has been a distraction, Cleverly admits

James Cleverly has admitted that the betting row has distracted from “really important issues” in the Conservatives’ general election campaign.

The Home Secretary said he was “furious that people who should have been motivated exclusively by public service” wagered on the election.

“Of course this distracts the conversation away from the really important issues,” he said.

“It is important. We are going to let the Gambling Commission do its work. But, as I say, I’d much prefer to be talking about the low-tax choice under the Conservatives and the high-tax choice under Labour.”

05:58 PM BST

In full: MRP poll puts Lib Dems in second and Reform on 18 seats

05:50 PM BST

Labour ‘to make voter registration automatic’

The Labour Party will make registration for voting automatic if it wins the general election, it has been reported.

The Guardian claimed that the party’s plans would adds millions to the electoral roll, many of them young.

Those who wish to vote are currently required to fill out a form to do so.

Labour’s manifesto included a pledge to “improve voter registration” without specifying any details.

05:33 PM BST

Reform to win 18 seats, poll predicts

A new poll has predicted that Reform UK will win 18 seats at the general election, the highest forecast for the party to date.

The MRP poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus predicted that party leader Nigel Farage, chairman Richard Tice and Tory defector Lee Anderson will all win seats on July 4.

Reform’s previous poll high was seven seats, which it was predicted to win by Survation last week.

The poll found that Reform would pick up 17 per cent of the national vote share, two points ahead of the Conservatives on 15 per cent.

A total of 19,993 voters were surveyed between June 14 and 24.

05:17 PM BST

Poll: Lib Dems to overtake Tories

The Liberal Democrats will overtake the Conservatives and become Britain’s next opposition, a poll has found.

The MRP survey of 19,993 voters by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus put Labour on 450 seats, the Lib Dems on 71 and the Tories on 60.

The poll, conducted between June 14 and 24, also predicted that Reform UK would win 18 seats, the highest forecasted for Nigel Farage’s party to date.

Mr Farage, party chairman Richard Tice and Tory defector Lee Anderson would all win seats if the survey was replicated on election day.

05:10 PM BST

Farage not campaigning in Scotland because it is not safe, says Tice

Nigel Farage is not campaigning for Reform UK in Scotland because it is not safe for him, Richard Tice has said.

Reform’s chairman said Mr Farage’s last visit had been “frankly dangerous”. The then UKIP leader had to be escorted to safety in a police riot van after a mob disrupted a visit to Edinburgh.

“Last time he was here, it was frankly dangerous,” Mr Tice said. “It was just dangerous. It was not safe.”

He added: “You have got to keep your leaders safe and secure, and we have the ability to share the load and that’s exactly what I’m doing. I’m delighted to be here.

04:55 PM BST

Footage of Lord Cameron’s hoax call with Russian pranksters released

Video footage has been released showing Lord Cameron discussing a Labour government on a hoax call with Russian pranksters who pretended to be a former Ukrainian president.

The Foreign Secretary discussed Sir Keir Starmer’s likely policy on Ukraine with someone purporting to be Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president from 2014 to 2019, earlier this month.

The Foreign Office made the duped call public knowledge on June 7 in a bid to prevent the footage being manipulated.

A spokesman said on Wednesday that the pranksters were “clearly Russian”, adding that “disinformation is a tactic straight from the Kremlin playbook”.

Earlier this month, the UK Government made the hoax call public knowledge to stave off any attempts to manipulate video footage of the former prime minister from the communications.

04:46 PM BST

Husain: I’m prepared to halt Sunak and Starmer in BBC debate

Mishal Husain has warned Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer that she is prepared to “halt” them during the BBC’s head-to-head debate tonight.

She said: “Once we’re into the flow, the debate will run straight through, for an hour and a quarter.

“Where necessary, I will be nudging the two men back to what was in the question, clarifying points, and yes, probably having to call a halt from time to time.

“I can’t predict how the overall tone will be, because that depends on the debaters, for whom these 75 minutes carry both opportunity and risk.”

The debate, which is being held at Nottingham Trent University, is being broadcast on BBC One at 8.15pm.

04:32 PM BST

Man admits throwing projectiles at Farage

A 28-year-old man has admitted throwing a coffee cup and another item at Nigel Farage as he campaigned on Reform UK’s election battle bus.

Josh Greally was arrested in the town centre in Barnsley, South Yorkshire, on Tuesday June 11 after he threw what looked like a paper cup containing a liquid, and another object, at Mr Farage. Neither of the objects hit the politician, who was on the top deck of the bus.

Greally, of Damsbrook Drive, Clowne, Derbyshire, appeared before a district judge at Barnsley Magistrates’ Court on Wednesday, where he pleaded guilty to a public order offence during the 10-minute hearing.

Judge Tim Spruce said it appeared that the first item thrown was a coffee cup but it was not clear what the second item was, and could have been another cup or some paper.

He asked for a pre-sentence report to be prepared and said Greally will be sentenced on August 28 at the same court. Judge Spuce told the defendant: “All sentencing options are open.”

04:21 PM BST

Starmer opposes ban on political betting

Sir Keir Starmer has said he opposes a ban on political betting and that he has never made such a bet himself.

“I’ve never placed a political bet, I only bet on the horses, so that’s where I stand on this,” the Labour leader said.

“And I don’t think that we should be lured into thinking this is a problem with the rules, it’s a problem with politicians.

“You can see from the reaction of the public that they know straight away that what’s been going on in the Tory party, this sort of insider dealing, is wrong.”

04:09 PM BST

Tories to win just 76 seats, poll predicts

The Conservatives will win just 76 seats at the general election, a new MRP poll has predicted.

The poll of 18,595 voters by WeThink, which was conducted between May 30 and June 21, forecasted a 139-seat majority for Labour, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party winning 465 constituencies.

The Liberal Democrats were predicted to win 52 seats, the SNP 29 and the Green Party and Reform UK three each.

04:00 PM BST

Greenpeace branded hypocrites for driving diesel van

A Conservative junior minister has accused Greenpeace activists of hypocrisy for driving a diesel van to climb on top of the Tory election battle bus.

Mark Spencer, a junior Defra minister, said: “It’s hypocrytical, really. They came to protest at an event where the Conservative MP came in a rechargeable vehicle, but they came in a diesel van.”

03:54 PM BST

‘Legitimate’ to climb onto Tory bus, Greenpeace claims

Greenpeace has defended its protest on the roof of the Conservative battle bus as “legitimate and important”.

Paul Morozzo, a spokesman for the environmental activist group, said: “We’re just making the point that if you want to vote with the climate in mind, if you want to vote for all the benefits the climate brings in terms of the economy and public services, then you vote for different parties.

“In an election where the debate is so sort of poor and weak, and there’s so many lies and untruths about both the economy and climate, we think it’s legitimate and important to make our point, and in whatever way we can.”

03:47 PM BST

Martin Lewis attacks Conservatives for using him in attack ad

Martin Lewis has attacked the Conservatives for using him in an attack ad claiming Labour would hike taxes.

The Money Saving Expert founder criticised a post by the Tories on X, formerly Twitter, which included a clip of him describing how a senior Labour member had told him they wanted to introduce a policy that was not in its manifesto.

The video was featured alongside the words: “They’re not telling you the full truth. Labour have said they wouldn’t put up your taxes. But it’s now becoming clear that they have every intention to put them up.”

Mr Lewis hit back, writing on X, formerly Twitter: “NO WHERE in this comment do I talk about taxes.

“And the policy that I discussed (I will keep private as it was private) was NOT about taxes, or tax rises, it was about something that would be a positive change.”

03:43 PM BST

Greenpeace protester named

The Greenpeace protester who climbed onto the roof of the Conservative battle bus has been named as Amy Rugg-Easey.

She has now descended from the roof using a ladder following the incident in Nottinghamshire.

“We’ve had enough of this Government lurching from one scandal to the next while gambling with our future,” she said. “We need clean power, not Paddy Power.”

03:37 PM BST

Pictured: Greenpeace activist on Tory battle bus

03:17 PM BST

Greenpeace activist climbs on Tory battle bus

A Greenpeace activist has climbed onto the roof of the Conservative campaign battle bus.

The protester is said to be refusing to get down from the coach.

03:15 PM BST

Pictured: Scottish Lib Dem leader embraced by toy sloth

03:00 PM BST

Streeting: I placed bet on Javid becoming health secretary

Wes Streeting has said he has bet on politics, saying he won a wager he placed on Sajid Javid becoming health secretary in 2021.

Speaking to ITV, the shadow health secretary said: “I have not bet on this election. I did once successfully bet on Sajid Javid being the next health secretary. Yes, that’s the extent.”

Asked if he had inside knowledge of Mr Javid’s appointing, Mr Streeting said: “No I most certainly didn’t. What I did do was an educated guess that Boris Johnson hated reshuffles. Sajid Javid was sat on the back and therefore I was successful on that occasion.”

The senior Labour politician was a junior member of Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet when Mr Javid took the role in June 2021.

02:51 PM BST

Candidate’s office shot at overnight

Police are investigating after a DUP candidate’s constituency office was shot at four times overnight.

Sammy Wilson, who is standing for re-election in East Antrim, said the window and doors of the property in Carrickfergus were damaged in the incident.

“Throughout my years as a public representative, I have never been deterred from putting forward my views and I won’t be deterred now,” Mr Wilson said.

Supt Ian McCormick, the Police Service of Northern Ireland’s district commander, urged witnesses to come forward and appealed for “CCTV, dashcam or other video footage”.

“People standing as candidates in our elections or involved in canvassing are a key part of our democratic process and it is unacceptable when they become the subject of abuse,” he said.

02:44 PM BST

Labour suspends party member after Westminster honeytrap arrest

A Labour Party member has been suspended from the party after being arrested in Islington, north London.

The Metropolitan Police said this morning that a man in his 20s had been arrested in connection with the Westminster honeytrap scandal.

In April, reports emerged that approximately 20 Westminster figures were targeted with flirtatious messages and explicit photographs from senders with the aliases “Charlie” or “Abi”.

William Wragg, the former Tory MP, resigned the party whip after admitting that he shared colleagues’ phone numbers with a man he met on Grindr because he was “scared” the man “had compromising things on me”.

Labour declined to comment.

02:38 PM BST

Ex-minister demands ‘long overdue’ apology from Truss

A former minister has demanded a “long overdue” apology from Liz Truss.

Sir Conor Burns, who served as a junior minister under Boris Johnson and Ms Truss, was responding to news that the ex-Prime Minister’s Popular Conservatism movement would hold a rally in Westminster on July 9, five days after polling day.

He said: “Starting with a full throated (long overdue) apology from Truss for the huge damage she has done, and continues to do, to the Conservative cause and a promise of prolonged silence?”

02:30 PM BST

Good afternoon

Tim Sigsworth here, taking over from my colleague Jack Maidment for the rest of the day. I will be with you until 10pm.

02:15 PM BST

Starmer told he looks ‘younger in person’ during visit to GP surgery

Sir Keir Starmer was told he looked “younger in person” as the Labour leader and Wes Streeting met patients at Long Lane Surgery GP practice in Coalville in the East Midlands today.

“Ooh, this is a surprise,” one exclaimed as the Labour leader and shadow health secretary walked over to sit with them in the surgery’s sunny courtyard.

“You look younger in person,” one patient said to Sir Keir. “You do,” another agreed.

“That’s the right way round,” Sir Keir said. Mr Streeting asked: “How much have you paid these people?”

02:04 PM BST

Boris Johnson welcomes Rutte’s appointment as next Nato boss

Boris Johnson has become the latest senior UK political figure to welcome the appointment of Mark Rutte as the next boss of Nato.

The former prime minister said Mr Rutte had been a “great champion of Ukraine”. Rishi Sunak, Sir Keir Starmer and Lord cameron have all already welcomed the appointment.

02:00 PM BST

‘You are the problem’: Sunak hits back at David Tennant in trans row

Rishi Sunak has criticised David Tennant, telling the actor “you are the problem” after he said he wished Kemi Badenoch would “shut up” because of her views on women’s rights.

The former Doctor Who star also said he wished the Business Secretary, considered a front-runner in a future Tory leadership contest, “did not exist any more”.

Mrs Badenoch, who has said she wants to ban trans women from women’s lavatories and defend single-sex spaces, accused Tennant of being a “rich, lefty, white male celebrity” who had attacked her even though she was the only black woman in government.

You can read the full story here. 

01:56 PM BST

Starmer welcomes Rutte’s appointment as next Nato chief

01:44 PM BST

Alex Salmond: General election should provide ‘popular mandate for independence’

Alex Salmond said a majority victory for Scottish independence-supporting candidates on July 4 should be viewed as a “popular mandate for independence”.

The Alba leader said Scotland was at a “pivotal moment in its history” as he launched the party’s manifesto today.

The UK Government, Mr Salmond said, has vetoed the “democratic wishes of Scots” since the 2014 referendum.

He said: “On July 4 Scotland goes to the polls in a UK general election – the Alba Party believes that every single national election should be used to seek a mandate to begin negotiations for independence.

“That means the election itself should provide the popular mandate for independence. Scotland stands at a pivotal moment in its history.”

The SNP has said that if it wins a majority of seats on July 4 it should trigger negotiations with the UK Government on holding a second referendum.

01:31 PM BST

Starmer insists Labour wager is ‘materially different’ to Tory betting scandal

Sir Keir Starmer said a Labour candidate betting on himself to lose on July 4 was “materially different” to allegations of Tories using inside information to gamble on the general election date.

Labour suspended Kevin Craig yesterday after the party was informed by the Gambling Commission that he was part of its investigation.

He was selected to contest Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, a Tory stronghold. He admitted putting a bet on himself to lose the race.

Sir Keir told reporters today: “It’s materially different to the Tory being investigated – it’s one thing to use insider information about the date of the election.

“It’s different to bet against yourself but you know, my decision was based on the fact that the Gambling Commission are investigating. That’s what I said I would do, and that’s what I did.”

Asked for his reaction when he found out Mr Craig had bet against himself winning in his seat, Sir Keir said: “I wasn’t very happy, but I knew what was going to happen because I was clear in my own mind what the appropriate action would be.”

01:18 PM BST

Scottish Lib Dem leader has placed bets on general election

Alex Cole-Hamilton, the Scottish Liberal Democrat leader, has placed “flutters” on the current general election.

He said it was merely “showing confidence in his friends”.

Mr Cole-Hamilton insisted it was very different from allegations of insider betting.

Speaking during a campaign stop at Edinburgh Zoo today, Mr Cole-Hamilton said: “Like a lot of people who have an intense interest in politics, I have been known to have a flutter and I have put a very small number of bets on certain outcomes of races across the British isles at this election.

“But you can’t predict the outcomes of elections, it’s never a sure thing. I’m just backing my friends who are working hard and deserve to win.”

01:15 PM BST

Pictured: Starmer and Streeting visit a GP surgery in the East Midlands

01:10 PM BST

Starmer appears to criticise David Tennant over Badenoch comments

Sir Keir Starmer has appeared to criticise the actor David Tennant over comments he made about Kemi Badenoch.

The Labour leader said he “wouldn’t have engaged in the way” Mr Tennant did when he said the Tory Cabinet minister should “shut up”.

Sir Keir said: “I think in politics, as in life, it’s really important that we are able to robustly disagree with others.

“Obviously, that happens a lot in the general election campaign, but we should do it with respect for everybody involved in that robust discussion.

“I wouldn’t have engaged in the way that he did. I think it’s right that we have these robust discussions, but we must do it respectfully.”

01:02 PM BST

Labour leader: ‘I’ve never placed a political bet’

Sir Keir Starmer said he has never placed a bet on a political event.

The Labour leader said he only gambled on horse racing but suggested he did not think the rules on political betting needed to change.

The Labour leader told broadcasters: “I’ve never placed a political bet, I only bet on the horses. So that’s where I stand on this.

“And I don’t think that we should be lured into thinking this is a problem with the rules, it’s a problem with politicians.”

01:00 PM BST

Starmer: Sunak ‘took days and days and days’ before taking action on betting scandal

Sir Keir Starmer said his response to the Gambling Commission investigating Labour candidate Kevin Craig demonstrated his assertive style of leadership.

He told broadcasters: “I made very clear that if any of my candidates were being investigated in relation to the Gambling Commission, I’d remove them straight away, which is what I’ve done.

“That’s in a sharp contrast to Rishi Sunak, who took days and days and days before he took action.”

12:58 PM BST

Pictured: Ed Miliband visits a ‘Zero Bills’ home in Stafford with Octopus Energy

12:56 PM BST

Angela Rayner forced to cancel Glastonbury appearance

Angela Rayner and other senior politicians have been forced to cancel appearances at Glastonbury Festival because of their general election commitments.

The deputy Labour leader was scheduled to take part in a panel about the next national poll on Saturday at the Left Field stage, which plays host to socialist talks as well as live music performances.

But Rishi Sunak calling the election for July 4, months earlier than many expected, means she has had to withdraw from the event.

You can read the full story here. 

12:27 PM BST

Starmer denies Labour will lurch to the Left if party wins election

Sir Keir Starmer has denied that the Labour Party will lurch to the Left if it wins the general election.

The Labour leader insisted that he was “not going to be deflected” in his pursuit of “wealth creation” – despite winning the leadership in 2020 by making an array of Left-wing policy promises such as vowing to increase income and corporation tax, abolish universal credit and axe tuition fees.

His pledges to Labour members also included a promise to “defend free movement as we leave the EU”, nationalise the railways, water and energy, and abolish the House of Lords.

Speaking to the Daily Mail, Sir Keir took aim at the suggestion that he would adopt a range of socialist policies once elected that did not appear in his manifesto.

You can read the full story here. 

12:15 PM BST

Foreign Secretary welcomes appointment of Mark Rutte as next Nato chief

12:00 PM BST

Voter dissatisfaction with Sunak ‘worst of any PM in 40 years’

Voter dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak is at the highest level of any prime minister at this point in a general election campaign in more than 40 years, according to a new poll.

An Ipsos survey conducted between June 21-24 found 20 per cent of voters were satisfied with the job Mr Sunak is doing as Prime Minister.

But 75 per cent said they were dissatisfied with Mr Sunak’s performance, giving the premier a net score of minus 55.

Ipsos said: “His net score of -55 is the worst for any prime minister tracked by Ipsos at this stage of an election campaign going back to 1979. The previous worst was John Major in 1997 (-27).”

Ipsos’s general election records start in 1979.

11:43 AM BST

Voter dissatisfaction with Sunak Government hits benchmark

Voter dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak’s Government is at the highest level of any administration at this point in a general election campaign since 1979, according to a new Ipsos poll.

The latest edition of the Ipsos Political Monitor, conducted between June 21-24, found that 83 per cent of voters are dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country.

Ipsos said: “This is the worst score for a government in Ipsos’ records at this stage of a campaign going back to 1979 (when it was 64 per cent for Callaghan’s government; the previous worst was 72 per cent for Boris Johnson’s government in December 2019).”

11:28 AM BST

Sir Ed Davey bet on the outcome of 2010 general election

Sir Ed Davey has revealed he placed a bet on the outcome of the 2010 general election.

The leader of the Liberal Democrats said he had bet on how well his party would do.

Asked today if he had ever bet on the result of a political event, Sir Ed told the BBC: “I have made one or two bets over the years on football and on politics. Not very many, I am not really a betting person. What I can say is I am a serial loser.”

Asked again if he had bet on elections, he said: “Yeah, I particularly remember getting very excited in 2010. Thought we might do quite well and I was wrong, I’m afraid, so I lost that bet.”

Asked to clarify that he had bet on the outcome of the 2010 election, Sir Ed said: “I said that I thought we were going to do better as a party. I thought the Liberal Democrats were going to gain more seats. I was quite excited.

“I don’t usually bet but I bet on that occasion and I lost.”

11:14 AM BST

Small boat crossings since Sunak became PM top 50,000

More than 50,000 migrants have arrived in the UK after crossing the Channel since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister, including over 13,000 so far this year.

Home Office figures published this morning showed 144 people made the journey in three boats yesterday, taking the provisional total for 2024 to date to 13,045. This is already a record for the first six months of a calendar year.

The latest arrivals mean the tally of crossings since Mr Sunak became premier in October 2022 now stands at 50,108.

10:49 AM BST

Tories claim Labour plotting ‘pensions tax raid’

The Tories claimed Labour was planning a “pensions tax raid” after Liz Kendall, the shadow work and pensions secretary, refused to rule out scrapping the 25 per cent tax-free allowance (see the post below at 10.39).

Laura Trott, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: “Labour are already planning a retirement tax by taxing the state pension for the first time ever.

“Now their shadow pensions secretary cannot rule out a further pensions tax raid – just one of the 17 tax rises Labour are planning, tax rises they do not intend to tell voters about before the election on 4 July.

“Keir Starmer should have the courage and conviction to be honest with the British people about the tax rises Labour are already planning, on top of the £2,094 in higher council tax and other taxes they will have to levy on working families to fill their spending black hole.”

10:39 AM BST

Labour refuses to rule out scrapping 25 per cent tax-free pensions allowance

Labour’s shadow work and pensions secretary has refused to rule out launching a raid on pensions if the party wins power on July 4.

Liz Kendall was asked repeatedly by Martin Lewis, the founder of the MoneySavingExpert website, if she could rule out scrapping the 25 per cent tax-free allowance on pensions but she failed to do so.

The allowance enables people to take up to 25 per cent of a pension pot as a tax-free lump sum.

Mr Lewis told Ms Kendall during an interview on ITV’s Good Morning Britain programme that he had spoken to a 62-year-old woman who was “panicking because she was hearing you were going to get rid of the 25 per cent tax-free allowance on pensions”.

Mr Lewis asked Ms Kendall if she could rule out such a move in the next parliament and she replied: “We have set out all of our plans in the manifesto. There is nothing in our manifesto that requires us to make any other changes.”

Mr Lewis said that was a “disingenuous” answer because a Labour government could opt to do things that are not in the party’s manifesto.

Asked if she could rule out Labour getting rid of the 25 per cent tax-free allowance in the next Parliament, Ms Kendall replied: “I’m being completely straight and honest. There’s nothing in our manifesto that requires us to make any other changes.”

Asked again if she could rule out getting rid of it, she said: “We have absolutely no plans for any other changes on taxes than is in our manifesto.”

10:25 AM BST

Watch: Sir Ed Davey tries CPR to ‘Stayin Alive’ soundtrack

Sir Ed Davey had a go at CPR training on a dummy during a general election campaign stop this morning.

The Lib Dem leader tried his hand at the life-saving technique as The Bee Gees famous song “Stayin’ Alive” played in the background.

Christopher Hope, GB News’ political editor, captured the moment:

10:05 AM BST

Four men released on bail after eco-protest arrests at PM’s home

Four men who were arrested at Rishi Sunak’s constituency home in North Yorkshire following an eco-protest have been released on bail, North Yorkshire Police said.

The men were detained at around 12.40pm yesterday before being escorted off the property and arrested on suspicion of aggravated trespass.

The force said that the men included one 52-year-old from London, one 43-year-old from Bolton, one 21-year-old from Manchester, and one 20-year-old from Chichester.

A spokesman said today that the four have all been released on conditional police bail and “the investigation remains ongoing”.

10:04 AM BST

Pictured: Glastonbury Festival attendee pokes fun at Sunak

09:43 AM BST

Starmer: I will still have the energy to be PM when I’m 71

Sir Keir Starmer has insisted he will still have enough energy to be prime minister at the age of 71, saying he wants to be in office for a decade.

The Labour leader said “of course” when asked if he would like to stay prime minister for ten years should his party win next week’s general election.

Making reference to his party’s promise of a “decade of national renewal”, he told ITV in an interview to be broadcast on Thursday: “Oh, I want to see that through. It’s my phrase.”

You can read the full story here. 

09:35 AM BST

Sunak congratulates Mark Rutte on becoming Nato’s next secretary general

Rishi Sunak has congratulated Mark Rutte, the outgoing prime minister of the Netherlands, on his appointment as Nato’s next secretary general.

The appointment was confirmed this morning and Mr Sunak said he was “confident” Mr Rutte would keep Nato “strong and united” when he takes over from Jens Stoltenberg.

The UK had backed Mr Rutte for the job. Downing Street said in February this year that he had “serious defence and security credentials”.

09:25 AM BST

Labour has lost women’s trust over trans issues, admits Streeting

Labour has “a lot of work to do to earn the trust” of women in the wake of rows about transgender rights, the shadow health secretary has said.

Wes Streeting said it had taken the party “a while to navigate what has been a pretty complicated and at times toxic debate”, saying it was now time to “show some humility” for the hurt caused.

In an interview with The Telegraph he also said the NHS had too often taken a “totally misguided approach” to such issues, in a way that was “dehumanising and degrading”.

His comments came after JK Rowling accused Labour of “abandoning” women, saying she would struggle to vote for a party which was “dismissive” and often “offensive” towards them.

You can read the full story here.

09:17 AM BST

Man arrested over Westminster honeytrap scandal

A man has been arrested over the Westminster honeytrap scandal.

The scandal dominated Westminster at the start of April as around 20 Westminster figures were targeted.

William Wragg, now a former Tory MP, admitted that he had sent the numbers of colleagues to a man who contacted him on Grindr, a gay dating app, after he had sent intimate pictures of himself.

Several MPs, members of their staff and political journalists were later sent flirtatious texts, and in several cases explicit photos, from senders with the aliases “Charlie” or “Abi”.

A spokesperson for the Metropolitan Police said: “On Wednesday, 26 June, police executed a warrant at an address in Islington.

“A man was arrested on suspicion of harassment and committing offences under the Online Safety Act. He was taken into custody where he remains.

“The arrest relates to an investigation being carried out by the Met’s Parliamentary Liaison and Investigation Team following reports of unsolicited messages sent to MPs and others. The investigation remains ongoing.”

08:59 AM BST

Starmer turns campaign focus to GP appointments

08:39 AM BST

Stride: ‘I don’t know where all of this will lead’

Mel Stride said he did not know how many Tories could end up being dragged into the Gambling Commission investigation on election betting after the BBC reported it could be as many as 15.

The Work and Pensions Secretary told LBC: “I don’t know what the number is, what the number may or may not end up as, or indeed which parties may be involved, because we have obviously just heard that a Labour candidate has apparently betted against himself in the constituency in which he is standing and has been suspended as a consequence.

“So I don’t know where all of this will lead, it could be that there will be others across different political parties going forward.

“But what I do know is that in the case of those Conservative candidates, who are being investigated by the Gambling Commission, they have been suspended. They are not supported as Conservative candidates in this election.

“Indeed, the Prime Minister has been very clear that in the event that they are found to have broken the rules by the Gambling Commission, they will be expelled from the Conservative Party.”

08:26 AM BST

Sunak takes aim at David Tennant over Badenoch comments

08:23 AM BST

Badenoch blasts Labour candidate amid David Tennant row

Kemi Badenoch has hit back at a former Labour MP who said she agreed with David Tennant’s comments about the Business and Trade Secretary.

Dawn Butler, who is standing in Brent East for Labour, tweeted that “not all Black women think the same” and “I agree with David Tennant”.

The Doctor Who actor said yesterday that he wished Ms Badenoch “did not exist any more” because of her views on women’s rights. He also told her to “shut up”.

Ms Badenoch responded to Ms Butler this morning and claimed she had revealed the “true face of the Labour Party”:

08:17 AM BST

Pictured: Gillian Keegan visits a pub in Chichester on the campaign trail yesterday

08:08 AM BST

Cabinet minister rejects Osborne criticism of Sunak

Mel Stride said he disagreed with George Osborne after the former chancellor suggested Rishi Sunak’s response to the betting scandal had shown that he is not a real political leader.

Asked the question during an interview on Times Radio, the Work and Pensions Secretary said: “No I don’t [agree], and I agree with a lot of what George says actually, I think he is a very astute political observer, but I don’t agree on this.

“As I have said I think what the party has done is to have its internal enquiries, to look at the issues around these candidates.

“What you and I and George don’t know is what those discussions were, what kind of mitigating circumstances there may or may not have been, what information was required and so on and so forth and sometimes that does take a bit of time.”

08:02 AM BST

Mel Stride defends Alister Jack over betting ‘joke’

Mel Stride defended his Cabinet colleague Alister Jack after the latter admitted betting on the timing of the general election.

Mr Jack, the Scottish Secretary, said he had placed three bets - two in March and one in April - and insisted he had “not breached any gambling rules” and he was not under investigation by the Gambling Commission.

He denied earlier reports that he had won £2,100 on a wager, as he tried to dismiss the remarks, reported by the BBC, as a “joke”.

Asked about the “joke”, Mr Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary, told Times Radio: “I don’t know. Politicians are criticised for being too serious and out of touch with people and need to loosen up a bit on the one hand.

“And on the other hand, if they make a joke here or there or whatever they are jumped on for being too frivolous.

“The important thing with Alister I think is the fact, as I have said, the bets that he placed did not occur in May. He is very clear that he has not broken any of the rules and is not indeed being investigated by the Gambling Commission.”

07:56 AM BST

Labour heading towards ‘massive majority’ on July 4, warns Stride

Labour appears to be heading to a “massive majority” victory at the general election on July 4, Mel Stride said this morning.

The senior Tory, a close ally of Rishi Sunak, told Sky News: “I’m extremely worried for the future if we have a Labour government, particularly if we have one that is totally unrestrained because it has a massive majority, which is what we appear to be heading towards, with very little opposition in Parliament.

“I would just say to people on that score that I think it’s really important that we think very carefully about holding Labour to account, if they are to win this coming general election, and that people do vote Conservative so that we have a decent opposition at least to an overweening Labour Party.”

07:55 AM BST

Up to 15 Tories ‘investigated by Gambling Commission over betting scandal’

As many as 15 Conservative candidates and officials are under investigation by the Gambling Commission over bets on the date of the general election, it has been claimed.

Two Tory candidates were suspended on Tuesday over allegations they put money on a July poll and five party figures have now been publicly named as part of the watchdog’s inquiries.

Victoria Derbyshire, the BBC Newsnight presenter, told viewers on Tuesday night that the number of Tories being scrutinised could actually be up to three times that number.

“In our investigation I’ve found that up to 15 Conservative Party candidates and officials are being scrutinised for alleged betting on the timing of the election,” she said.

The Telegraph understands the Conservative Party does not recognise the number cited by Ms Derbyshire.

07:40 AM BST

Ban on politicians making political bets should be considered, suggests minister

Mel Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary, suggested a total ban on politicians betting on political events should be considered.

Asked if it should be banned, he told Times Radio: “Quite possibly and I think we do need to have a debate about it.”

But he said there were “all sorts of variations of gambling around politics”.

“My personal view, I would just say that people shouldn’t do it, but I think we should have a debate about it more broadly,” he said.

“But let me be very, very clear: by saying that, I totally recognise that using inside information, as may have been the case for certain individuals in this way, is utterly wrong.”

07:26 AM BST

Sunak ‘thoroughly angered’ by betting scandal, says Stride

Rishi Sunak has been left “thoroughly angered” by the general election betting scandal, the Work and Pensions Secretary said.

Mel Stride said the decision to withdraw support from two Tory candidates was a  “major step” and Mr Sunak had been “right to make it”.

He told Times Radio: “It is a major step to make and he was right to make it and I know he has been thoroughly angered by the whole situation.

“Because as I say, this is taking up now a lot of airtime…”

07:21 AM BST

Stride defends Sunak’s handling of betting scandal

Rishi Sunak has taken “very clear and decisive action” over the general election betting scandal, Mel Stride said this morning.

The Conservative Party withdrew its support from two Tory candidates yesterday but Mr Sunak was criticised for having not taken the step sooner.

But Mr Stride defended the Prime Minister, telling Times Radio: “There will have been internal inquiries around exactly what happened going on, I imagine, from the moment that this issue surfaced.

“Clearly it is  not unreasonable for it to take a little bit of time, depending on the circumstances and you and I don’t know what those are and what needed to be investigated and questions that needed to be asked and so on.

“It is not unreasonable for that to take just a little bit of time in some circumstances. That is how I see this as having happened and as I say, very clear and decisive action has been taken by the Prime Minister.”

07:01 AM BST

Poll: Majority of voters believe Sunak handled election betting scandal badly

A clear majority of voters believe Rishi Sunak has handled the general election betting scandal badly, according to a new YouGov poll.

A survey conducted by the company yesterday found 36 per cent of respondents believed the Prime Minister had handled it “very badly” and 24 per cent said “fairly badly”, giving a total score of 60 per cent for badly.

Some 16 per cent said Mr Sunak had handled it well, broken down into 3 per cent “very well” and 13 per cent “fairly well”.

06:45 AM BST

What is happening in the general election campaign today?

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will take part in the final head-to-head debate of the general election tonight, with just eight days of the campaign remaining.

The Prime Minister is set to clash with the Labour leader from 8.15pm in a BBC One show broadcast from Nottingham and hosted by Mishal Husain, a presenter of the Today programme.

The 75-minute debate will be seen as the last chance for Mr Sunak to shift the dial as the Conservatives continue to trail Labour by around 20 points in the polls while also shedding support to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Sir Keir will start the day in the East Midlands at 9.30am on a campaign visit with Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary.

In Scotland, Alex Salmond will launch the Alba Party’s manifesto as the former SNP first minister argues his challenger party is the only one focused on achieving Scottish independence.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, will participate in a farm shop visit with his party’s candidate for Gordon and Buchan, while Richard Tice, the chairman of Reform, focuses his attention on the Scottish economy and Reform’s opposition to net zero at a press conference.

06:38 AM BST

Heappey: There won’t be a Tory government elected on July 4

James Heappey, the former Tory minister, has ruled out the Conservative Party winning the general election next week.

He said it was “plain to see” that there will not be a Tory government after July 4.

Mr Heappey, who is not standing at this election, was asked for his assessment of Rishi Sunak’s electoral prospects on polling day.

He told GB News: “There won’t be a Conservative government elected next week, that is plain to see.

“And so I think that what people have got to consider is whether or not it is healthy for our democracy if parliament were to become increasingly just irrelevant, which is what it would become if the majority was so vast.

“Heck, there have been people on the Left who were complaining that an 80 seat majority gave Boris Johnson untrammelled power. Well, they ain’t seen nothing yet.”

06:36 AM BST

Betting scandal ‘sucks’ for Tories, says former defence minister

The general election betting scandal does politics as a whole a “massive disservice”, a former defence minister has said.

James Heappey, the former Tory MP, said “the whole thing sucks” and “plays to the public’s perception of politicians generally”.

He told GB News: “I think all it does is just creates that sort of weary sigh as people look at each other in the coffee queue in the morning, and does politics on the whole a massive disservice.”