Impact of Covid lockdowns to disrupt England’s schools into the 2030s, report says

Repairing the damage to children’s education caused by the pandemic lockdowns and closures will disrupt England’s schools until the mid-2030s, according to a new report.

The analysis, published by the Association for School and College Leaders (ASCL), forecasted that the after-effects of the pandemic will hit schools in a series of waves, with different age groups requiring varying solutions for their problems with learning, behaviour and absence.

Tim Oates, the report’s author and an expert on assessment, said: “While secondary schools are reporting an increase in reading difficulties among year 7 pupils, poor personal organisation and challenging patterns of interaction, staff in primary schools are reporting very serious problems of arrested language development, lack of toilet training, anxiety in being in social spaces, and depressed executive function.”

Related: ‘Bubble’ of post-pandemic bad behaviour among pupils predicted to peak

Oates said it was a mistake to think schools have returned to pre-pandemic normality that ignores “the massive scale and enduring persistence of Covid-19 impact in education”. Recovery “will be a long slog, not a walk in the park”, requiring “protracted, grinding effort” and cooperation between schools, parents and the government, he added.

Pepe Di’Iasio, the general secretary of the ASCL, said: “This report shows that, while the headlines have moved on from Covid-19, the impact on schools and children remains a day-to-day reality.

“Unfortunately, the previous government failed to get to grips with this issue, ignoring recommendations from its own education recovery commissioner for a substantial and ongoing package of support for children and young people.

“Schools continue to see high rates of pupil absence and they have many pupils with complex needs. At the same time they are struggling with severe budget pressures, staff shortages and a special educational needs system on the brink of collapse.

“We urge the new government to work with us on developing targeted, well-funded policies that respond to the challenges outlined in this report.”

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “We know the pandemic has had a profound impact on children’s development – and we are determined to break down barriers to opportunity and improve the life chances of all children.

“We’re also committed to providing access to specialist mental health professionals in every school, introducing free breakfast clubs in every primary school to increase attendance, and ensuring earlier intervention in mainstream schools for pupils with special needs.”

The Guardian has reported concerns among school leaders and experts that there could be further classroom disruption in the coming school year, as a “behaviour bubble” of pupils affected by the Covid-era lockdowns at primary school reach the peak ages for suspensions and exclusions.

But Oates’ report said that even babies born during the pandemic now starting in primary schools were likely to be profoundly affected throughout their education.

“Covid-19 impact is not a thing of the past; it is moving like a series of different waves up through the system,” Oates said.

“Eleven-year-olds affected by interrupted learning are entering secondary school with very different problems to those born and young in the pandemic entering primary schools, who are displaying acute developmental needs,” said Oates, the group director of assessment research and development at Cambridge University Press and Assessment.

Those born during the pandemic “now appear to be prone to fundamental problems in cognitive and social development”, he said, bringing educational challenges that “will continue to unfold over the next five to 10 years as children whose early development was affected by the pandemic pass through school”.

Related: Rapid help needed for Covid babies who fell behind, says former Ofsted chief

The report criticises the government’s post-pandemic response, including funding extra academic help for pupils through the national tutoring programme (NTP), as uneven and “headline-grabbing” that failed to reach disadvantaged children.

Di’Iasio said: “While this report shows that the NTP had mixed success, it was at least something, and it has been replaced by nothing.”

Oates said that recovery policies now in place do not match the scale of the challenges facing schools.

“An evidence-driven response requires strategy and resources co-designed by schools, unions and the government. It will require parental support and community engagement. It will require protracted, grinding effort. It will require politicians dedicated to following the detail of what is happening on the ground, analysing data, listening to schools and fine-tuning strategy,” he said.