Labour landslide as Tories on course for historic defeat – and Reform surge: your guide to the night ahead

Good evening. According to the exit poll that landed just after the polls closed at 10pm, 14 years of Conservative-led government are over – and Labour have won in a landslide.

Even though it has been widely predicted in the polls throughout the campaign, it looks like the scale of the victory will be remarkable – a majority of around 170, very close to Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide, while the Tories are on course for the worst result in their history. Perhaps the other big story of the night, if it holds up: the kind of showing for Reform that Nigel Farage has been dreaming of, far outmatching anything Ukip or the Brexit party ever achieved.

A health warning: this is an exit poll, not a final tally, and it is unlikely to be exactly right. But exit polls have been remarkably accurate estimates of the final count for the largest party throughout the 21st century, and the scale of the victory suggested makes anything other than an outright Labour victory appear impossible. (In 2015, it projected a hung parliament when the Tories in fact won a small majority – but it was still only 14 seats away.) Needing 326 seats for a majority, the exit poll puts Labour on 410, with the Tories on 131, the Lib Dems on 61, Reform on 13, the SNP on 10, Plaid Cymru on 4 and the Greens on 2.

To follow the very latest, head to Andrew Sparrow’s live blog. The live results tracker is here, though it’ll be dormant for a while yet. If you want to get First Edition at 7am to run you through everything that happens overnight, sign up here. For more on what we know now, and a companion to guide you through the rest of the night, read on.

How to keep up as the night unfolds

It’s way too early for deeper analysis – but here is what the exit poll tells us, if it’s broadly correct. We are in a new era. The Conservatives have been utterly repudiated. Keir Starmer’s strategy has been resoundingly vindicated. The Lib Dems will have a significant voice in the next parliament, the SNP have been dealt a severe blow and lose their status as the third party, the Greens have a crucial parliamentary foothold – and Reform are pinching themselves.

Now that the doubts about whether the polls could really be right have been laid to rest, the big questions are about what this means for Britain’s future: how will Keir Starmer govern with such a thumping majority? Who will the Tories select to replace Rishi Sunak, who will surely announce his resignation very soon, and how long will it take them to recover – if they can do so at all? And what does Reform’s success portend for the future of populism in Britain? But all of that is ahead. Here’s your guide to the rest of the night. My tip: go to bed right now and set your alarm for 3am, when the really big news will start rolling in.

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Now: People on TV saying things

Currently underway on every election broadcaster: fervent discussion of whether the exit poll is correct, Labour pundits trying to sound level-headed, Tories being more laceratingly honest than at any other point in their political lives.

There’s also every possibility that somebody will say something they later regret: it was at 10.19pm in 2015 that Paddy Ashdown said that he would “publicly eat my hat” if the exit poll’s prediction of Lib Dem wipeout turned out to be true. No actual results for a while, but if you’re staying up, settle in and get a feel for the vibes.

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11pm-3am: Early indications

As the first results start to land, remember that in any individual constituency, swing may tell us much more than the actual result – how does the result compare to last time, and how does it line up with the exit poll? The much-less-exciting-than-its-protagonists-imagine battle to be first seat to declare is likely to be between Blyth and Ashington and Houghton and Sunderland South in the north-east, both expected to be held by Labour.

At about 12.15am we should get the first big result in Basildon and Billericay in Essex, where Tory party chair Richard Holden was parachuted in to what should be a very safe seat despite no real link to the area. If it’s close, Labour are probably having a good night. About 15 minutes later we’ll see if former minister Robert Buckland has successfully defended Swindon South and a majority of 6,625 – probably not in a solid Labour win. And then come the first Scottish constituencies of East Kilbride and Strathaven, Hamilton and Clyde Valley, and Rutherglen – all SNP-held Labour target seats, with East Kilbride and Strathaven the tallest order: if that falls, it’s a rough night for the SNP.

Harrogate and Knaresborough is a Lib Dem target, with an 8% swing needed to take it from the Tories, and should land around 1.45am. Then comes Rochdale, where Labour’s Paul Waugh is attempt to replace George Galloway, at 2.30am.

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3am-5am: This is it

443 of 650 constituencies are expected to declare in this period – and by the end of it the result is likely to be clear. Alex Chalk could be the first cabinet minister to lose his seat at 3am in Cheltenham, where the Lib Dems are attacking a majority of just 981. Jeremy Corbyn will find out his fate in Islington North at about the same time.

In Northern Ireland, Belfast East, expected at 3am, will be watched particularly closely as the Democratic Unionist party’s interim leader, Gavin Robinson, is defending the marginal seat against the Alliance party leader, Naomi Long. In Wales, Plaid Cymru has its biggest hopes pinned on the Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin constituencies, which are also expected to declare between 3am and 4am.

Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire is in a ferocious contest with Green co-leader Carla Denyer in Bristol Central, and the result is due at 3.15am. Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash and Grant Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield could have the feel of Portillo moments at 3.30am, but are defending relatively small majorities, so might lack shock value. If Penny Mordaunt loses to Labour in Portsmouth North at about the same time, despite a majority of 15,780, the Tories will know they’re in line for a very bad result. And if Rishi Sunak loses Richmond and North Allerton at 4am, it’s a cataclysm. This is also when we’ll first hear from the prime minister, whatever the result.

At about the same time, we’ll learn whether Nigel Farage has won in Clacton, who will meanwhile be looking for news of Richard Tice’s challenge in Boston and Skegness, and perhaps many other seats besides. And, if expected declaration times and the polling averages are right, the FT estimates that Labour could cross the 325 majority threshold at about 4.15am. Fittingly enough, Keir Starmer’s Holborn and St Pancras seat is also due about then – meaning his speech will come pretty soon after Sunak’s.

Another popcorn moment at 4.30am in the new seat of North East Somerset and Hanham, which Jacob Rees-Mogg is defending against Labour with a notional majority of 16,389. Meanwhile, the Greens will get news from Brighton Pavilion, Caroline Lucas’ seat now being defended against Labour by Siân Berry – and also from Waveney Valley, where co-leader Adrian Ramsay is trying to beat Conservative Richard Rout. The sun rises at 4.51am.

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5am onwards: The dust settles

Liz Truss should find out if she’s held her vast majority against Labour in Norfolk South West as the clock strikes five. Relax: you should now know what’s happened in this election, more or less. All but a very few results will be declared by 7am. We may hear another big victory speech, with ears pricked for the chosen soundtrack. The prime minister-elect will head to Buckingham Palace soon afterwards, and the next five years will begin. At last.

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