Nearly quarter of students who got three Ds in A-levels graduated university with firsts

Nearly a quarter of students who received three Ds in their A-levels went on to achieve a first in their degree last year, according to the universities regulator.

The Office for Students (OfS) said 24.4 per cent of students who left school or college with results of DDD were awarded the university grade in the 2022-23 academic year.

It marks an almost fourfold jump compared to 2010-11 when 6.7 per cent of those students ended up getting a first. And 21.6 per cent of students who received below three Ds were also handed firsts.

It comes as the rate of first-class degrees handed out to all students in England has nearly doubled over the past decade, amid concerns over grade inflation.

OfS data published on Thursday showed 29.6 per cent of all university students were awarded firsts in 2022-23.

It marks the second year in a row the figure has fallen and means the rate of firsts is broadly equivalent to pre-pandemic levels.

However, it is still nearly double the rate in 2010-11, when 15.8 per cent of all degrees were awarded a first.

Susan Lapworth, chief executive at the OfS, said the figure was still too high, despite two consecutive years of decline, and said almost half of all firsts handed out were officially inexplicable.

The OfS takes into account various factors when analysing whether the proportion of firsts handed out “can be accounted for”, including degree subject, a student’s qualifications, and their age of entry into higher education.

The universities regulator said that of the three in 10 degrees that were given the prestigious grade last year, almost half “cannot be explained by the OfS’s statistical modelling”.

According to its analysis, the true rate of firsts handed out last year should have been around 16.2 per cent.

“We are still seeing nearly double the proportion of graduates awarded first-class degrees as we did in 2010/11, nearly half of which is unexplained,” said Ms Lapworth.

“Our report is clear that while some of this observed increase could be attributed to factors like improved teaching and learning, we need to guard against unexplained increases in classifications becoming embedded because this risks public confidence in higher education.”

She said the universities regulator was clear that “a first-class degree in 2024 should carry the same weight as one awarded in the past and into the future”.

‘Ludicrous grade inflation’

It comes amid concerns that some universities could be trying to lure a continuous pipeline of students by boosting their chances of leaving with a top degree.

Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said in May that there was currently a “bizarre world of ludicrous grade inflation within universities”.

He told The Expert Factor podcast: “Actually, who does that grade inflation benefit the most? Kids who go to Oxford or Cambridge or Imperial, because you know that a first from Oxford is worth something. You just don’t know what a first from some other organisations is worth.

“As an employer … the information [that] is conveyed to you by the class of the degree is not very great, and so employers use other information, and increasingly actually employers use their own tests and so on.

“So we’ve lost part of the usefulness of the degree as a signal to an employer of what it is that you’re capable of, if everyone is getting these higher-class degrees.”

Performing arts universities were among the universities handing out the highest rate of first-class degrees in 2022-23, according to OfS data.

The Royal Academy of Music awarded the highest proportion of firsts, with 59.6 per cent of students graduating with a top degree, followed by the Royal Northern College of Music, Imperial College London and Trinity Laban Conservatoire of Music and Dance.

The OfS said its analysis of whether degrees were “explained” did not take into account changes in marking criteria during the pandemic, or where students were awarded a place at university through things like portfolios or performances.