Reform won’t recover from this false start

Four weeks ago we found out Reform UK was real. Though it did not stand candidates everywhere in the local elections, where it did it performed well. In Sunderland it romped home, pushing the Conservatives into third place in some wards. They doubled their support from 6 per cent in 2023 where they stood to 12 per cent. They beat or came close to their polling benchmarks in Blackpool, Derbyshire, the East Midlands, London and Manchester.

Now it could be unwinding. In the latest JLP/Rest is Politics poll Reform UK is on the decline with people over the age of 35, where it gets most of its support. The party has seen a statistically significant drop amongst women, garnering the backing of less than one in ten of the female vote. For the first time in our election tracking, Labour is taking more votes amongst 2019 Tories than Reform is.

And critically, the number of Conservatives who would consider switching to Reform has dropped from 33 per cent at the time of the local elections to just 23 per cent today.

What has happened? The squeeze is on. The Conservatives can convincingly say to Reform voters that a vote for them is effectively a vote for Starmer: some people in our poll gave this as a reason for changing their mind in the last few days. If the race tightens this line will only gather credibility. And Tory policies like national service and the pension triple lock plus could also win more Reform backers over.

It did not have to be this way. If Nigel Farage had taken on the leadership of the party and stood for a seat, we would be in a very different place. To be taken seriously in an election, you have to stand. Richard Tice just does not have the same bite: two in every three voters do not have an opinion of him, and Reform voters overwhelmingly prefer their man from the jungle.

Some caution is needed. Farage is still getting airtime and could yet stand. Reform are still taking 13 per cent of the 2019 Tory vote. Whereas the Tories needed to squeeze the Brexit Party to under 10 per cent in 2019, this time they need to squeeze Reform UK to below 5 per cent to have any chance of forcing a hung parliament. Even then, with such a dire national position, it would not be guaranteed.

To convert more Reform voters, the Conservatives will need to make more radical bids for their support – especially on immigration - and ratchet up the message that a vote for Reform means a vote for Labour.

But assuming they do, this is shaping up to be another two-horse race. Even if one is a pony with only three legs.

James Johnson is co-founder of JL Partners polls