Starmer set for huge majority as exit poll predicts record Tory defeat

Sir Keir Starmer is poised to complete one of the most remarkable turnarounds in British political history as the exit poll indicates a huge Labour victory that will sweep him into Downing Street with a majority of 170.

As polling stations closed at 10pm, the exit poll predicted that Labour will win 410 seats, the Tories 131, the Lib Dems 61, Reform 13 and the SNP 10.

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, and Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, have become the first two senior Labour figures to be returned to parliament, winning in Leeds West and Pudsey and Sunderland South respectively.

Lee Anderson, meanwhile, has become Reform UK’s first elected MP, retaining his Ashfield seat.

It is a stunning reversal in fortunes since the Tories won an 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson just under five years ago, in what was also Labour’s worst election result since 1935.

Follow our liveblog here for seat-by-seat updates as they come in

The 131 seats projected for the Tories would represent a record low in their 346-year history, beating the previous 156 in 1906.

If the exit poll is correct, several senior Tories are in serious danger of losing their seats.

According to the BBC, chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, defence secretary Grant Shapps, ex-business secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and ex-Conservative leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith are among those at most risk.

Sir Jacob said: “The Conservative Party took its core voters for granted and that is why people have gone over to Reform.”

Former cabinet minister Andrea Leadsom argued that the loss of votes to Reform showed that “the Conservative Party hasn’t been conservative enough.”

Minister Steve Baker, who is also expected to lose his seat, told the BBC: “I think this is an extremely difficult time for the Conservative Party.”

He said that Mr Sunak would do “what is right for the country”.

If the exit poll is proved right, Nigel Farage is set to be a big winner, taking his Reform UK party to 13 seats at its first attempt.

His last-minute decision to stand in Clacton appears to have been fully vindicated and has propelled his party into parliament, ending his own run of seven defeats in attempts to get elected.

After the first two declarations, Farage put out a video saying: “What does it mean? We are going to win many, many seats across the country.”

Meanwhile, the SNP’s support appears to have collapsed in Scotland, with the projected 10 seats representing a loss of 35 seats.

The SNP will have lost out to the Labour Party surge, which Lord Mandelson told the BBC was “much bigger” than Tony Blair’s victory in 1997.

He pointed out that when the now Sir Tony won, the party had been slowly “on an upward trajectory” in 1987 and 1992, but this victory will have come after a near collapse under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.

Sir Keir’s final message to voters linked to his decision to throw out his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn.

He said: “I’ve changed the Labour Party. If you put your trust in me by voting Labour, I will change the country.”

Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, commenting as the polls closed, said: “Keir Starmer’s transformation of the Labour Party has been remarkable. He has put country before party and has transformed Labour from a party focused on itself to one back in the service of the British public. We have campaigned as a changed Labour Party, ready to change Britain.

“It’s going to be a long night, and it will be several hours until we know the full picture of results. Labour will need a swing bigger than Tony Blair achieved in 1997 to achieve a majority of just one seat.”

But after millions defied predictions of massive voter apathy and went out to vote, the British people have delivered a devastating verdict on the Tory government over the last five years.

With three different prime ministers, rows over Brexit, the Partygate scandal, Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-Budget and years of civil war and internal bickering, the Conservatives’ 14-year period in government has come to a crushing end.

The exit poll suggests that the prime minister himself could be one of several senior Tories nervously awaiting results tonight, with their seats under serious threat.

If there are more than seven cabinet casualties, it will be a new record. Other records which could be broken are the all-time lowest number of Tory seats of 156 in 1906 and Tony Blair’s 1997 majority of 179.

Mr Sunak, who announced the snap election in the rain while being heckled with D:Ream’s “Things Can Only Get Better”, has insisted that he is “proud” of his election campaign despite many claiming it has been one of the worst in history.

Warnings of a Labour “supermajority” and claims of a £2,000 tax hike for each home – disowned by the Treasury – were designed to scare Tory voters planning to stay at home or support Mr Farage’s Reform UK.

But the tactics seemed to have failed despite a better-than-expected turnout reported up and down the country, with the good weather contributing to people going to the polls and queuing to vote.

Sources have already told The Independent that the high turnout is mainly because “people want to punish the Conservatives” and there are predictions of a wipeout result which could leave the Tories on fewer than 100 seats.

Mr Sunak’s decision to leave the D-Day commemorations early during the campaign and the gambling scandal involving members of his inner circle have all meant he has struggled to close the gap with Labour.

Ahead of polling day, he had told supporters that he would “fight to the end” and was “used to being an underdog”.

But his final throw of the dice, bringing back disgraced former prime minister Boris Johnson to a campaign rally, appears to have failed to turn around his party’s fortunes with scores of MPs set to lose their seats after 75 Tories already said they would not stand.

Mr Farage, who has pushed hard on immigration and Mr Sunak’s failure to stop the small boats in the Channel, appealed to voters to “vote with your heart, vote for Reform”.

Earlier in the day he mocked Mr Sunak: “Time to hit the panic button.”