Tim Walz’s midwestern charm boosts Harris – can he help sell her economic vision?

Tim Walz has had a meteoric rise to the national political stage, advancing from state governor to Democratic running mate, bolstering Kamala Harris’s presidential chances, invigorating the party’s base, and re-popularizing the term “weird” along the way.

On Tuesday night, the avuncular Minnesota governor will face his next challenge: taking on Ohio senator JD Vance, in a much-anticipated debate in New York. Both men have long sold their experiences of growing up in rural midwest towns as proof that they represent middle America, and both were recruited to augment their parties’ chances in November.

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With Harris and Trump hailing from large coastal cities, Tuesday’s debate will see which of the small-town vice-presidential candidates can best appeal to the sort of blue-collar workers who could swing the vote in November.

So far, Walz seems to be doing the most convincing job. The 60-year-old is more popular among the American public than Harris, Trump or Vance, and has received rousing receptions on the campaign trail, where his rallies and events showcase his ability to act like a regular person. Vance, by contrast, can come across as stiff and awkward, and has managed to alienate large sections of the American public via criticisms of immigrants and women who do not have children.

“The selection of Tim Walz as the vice-presidential nominee was sort of designed to help Kamala Harris reach midwestern voters – and midwestern white voters in particular. He’s the type of midwesterner that people can identify with,” said Emmitt Riley, a professor of politics and African and African American studies at Sewanee University and the chair of the National Conference of Black Political Scientists.

“I think Tim Walz has done what he needed to do, because if we think about Kamala Harris’s favorabilities, they’re up, I think poll numbers are shifting – she’s not pulling ahead of Donald Trump with respect to issues on the economy, but voters are now warming to her economic message. So I do believe he’s been able to attract the support he needs.”

An event at a high school in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania in late September showed Walz’s appeal. Wearing an open-necked blue shirt and a gray suit, the former schoolteacher came out to the song Small Town by John Mellencamp. There’s nothing disingenuous about the music choice: Walz was born and grew up in Valentine, Nebraska, a town of about 2,500 people, a point he makes on the campaign trail.

Then Walz turned to joking about how Pennsylvania’s NFL teams were more successful than the Minnesota Vikings. Walz went on to link the history of Minnesota, where he has been governor since 2019, to Pennsylvania, which has struggled with unemployment as its steel industry fell apart in the 1980s.

“Northern Minnesota has some of the richest iron mine deposits in the world. That iron from the northern Minnesota iron range fuelled the steel mills here, right in the Lehigh Valley. Together it was our people that built the tanks that won world war two and freed the world from Nazi oppression,” Walz said.

“We forged the bridges, we built the highways, we built the skyscrapers, and we are ready to continue to build the future together.”

It was a speech that told people in Pennsylvania – a key swing state – that Walz was one of them, someone who understood the concerns of the working person. Walz certainly isn’t afraid of leaning into his rural midwestern background.

“I had 24 kids in my graduating class. Twelve were cousins,” Walz told the crowd, to laughter.

“But what you learn is your communities, your family, you take care of one another. You look out for them, you lift them up. Kamala Harris does that. We didn’t grow up in the same place, but we grew up around the same people.”

The difference between Walz and Vance is stark in the midwest: a New York Times/Siena College poll found that Walz has a +3% favorability rating in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, while Vance’s rating was -6%. Given the closeness of the vote in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020 – Joe Biden won Michigan by about 150,000 votes, and Wisconsin by just 20,000 – if Walz’s popularity can persuade even a small percentage of midwesterners to vote Democrat, then his selection will have been worth it.

“I think that if you look at Tim Walz’s favorability compared to JD Vance’s favorability, he’s more likable than JD Vance, he seems more personable than JD Vance, and these are all pluses for the Harris campaign,” Riley said.

But although Walz has won the popularity contest, on Tuesday he needs to sell what a Harris administration would do for Americans. The economy has proved to be a key issue for voters, and for months – first when compared to Joe Biden, and latterly to Harris – Trump has been seen as someone who would be better for America’s financial plight.

In the past 10 days, however, two polls have shown Harris and Trump essentially tied when people are asked who would do a better job of handling the economy. Democratic supporters are keen for Walz to build on those green shoots during the debate, to present how a Harris administration would continue to tackle inflation and improve the cost of living.

“What Walz has to do tomorrow is really let the American people know that he identifies with their struggles with respect to inflation, but at the same time tie Trump policies to why Americans are experiencing such high inflation,” Riley said.

“[Harris and Walz] so far haven’t talked about the Trump tax policies. They haven’t talked about Trump policies with respect to tariffs, and in addition to his mismanagement of the global pandemic. I think when voters think about that it’s clear to them that Donald Trump isn’t going to actually be better for Americans on the economy.”

Vance, who grew up in Middletown, Ohio, before studying at Yale and joining a California-based venture capital firm, is likely to attack Walz as an out-of-touch elite, despite the evidence that suggests that Walz is a pretty normal person, capable of doing normal things – something Democrats will hope comes across on the debate stage.

In recent days, Walz’s team have sought to temper expectations, however, briefing that he is nervous and considers himself a bad debater. Walz told reporters that his preparation was “going great” as he stopped by a pumpkin farm in Harbor Springs, Michigan, on Sunday – where he looked more comfortable inspecting squashes in baseball cap and jacket than he may do pontificating on stage on Tuesday.

“He’s a strong person,” Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic Minnesota senator, told CNN this week.

“He’s just not a lawyer-debater type. It’s not like he was dreaming of debates when he was in first grade.”

Historically, this debate might not have mattered. Vice-presidential candidates have traditionally been seen as relatively unimportant – the debates are “often a sideshow that has little influence on the election outcome”, said Robert Rowland, a professor of communication studies at the University of Kansas.

But with the election expected to be extremely tight, every little appearance could affect the race.

“Vance is fulfilling a role often played by vice-presidential candidates – attack dog carrying the nationalist populist message of Donald Trump,” Rowland said. “The focus of his campaign has been on activating core Trump supporters.”

“In contrast, Governor Walz has been perhaps the most effective spokesperson for the message of the Kamala Harris campaign – that Trump, Vance and other Maga Republicans are weird.”

On Tuesday the US will be introduced to both men, as Americans look to decide the future of the country.