‘I told my kids I may not be an MP after the election. But that’s democracy’

It was not long after Rishi Sunak surprised the nation by calling a snap general election that Jeremy Hunt sat down for a candid chat with his three children.

For their entire lives he has been MP for South West Surrey, as well as holding a series of senior Cabinet positions. But, he told them, this might be about to change.

“I’ve had the discussion with my kids, you know, I may not be an MP after the election,” he said, adding that he went on to tell them: “And that’s nothing to worry about. That’s democracy.”

The Chancellor is the first to admit that his seat – along with many others in the Blue Wall – is on a “knife edge”. He is one of several Tory “big beasts” who may well get ousted on July 4.

Speaking to The Telegraph at a coffee shop in the village of Godalming, in the heart of his Surrey constituency, he says: “This seat has only ever been Conservative. So lots of people express disbelief when you say, ‘No, it could fall to the Lib Dems’.

“We’ve done private polls. In some of them we are ahead, and in some of them we are behind. So it’s everything to play for.”

He admits people feel “bruised” from the shock the economy has gone through in recent times – the pandemic, followed by the war in Ukraine.

But he remains upbeat about his own – and the Conservative Party’s – chances. “I would say that the response on the doorstep has been positive,” he says.

“Since the election was called, there’s been a definite move back towards us. There’s a sense of rather than just wanting to give the Government a good kicking, people are now focusing on the choice for the future.

“And I would say round here, the main reason people vote Conservative is they trust us to do the right thing on the economy.

‘We’ve done that basic thing that people want’

“And they look back on the last 14 years, with the financial crisis, the pandemic, Ukraine, and they can see that we have delivered and the economy has turned a corner.

“People are still feeling bruised after the shocks that we’ve had over the last few years. But there is a recognition that we’ve done that basic thing that people want from Conservative governments, which is to take whatever tough and difficult decisions necessary to get the economy back on its feet.”

In a blow to the Tories, the first MRP poll of the campaign suggests that they could win just 66 seats in the general election.

The new analysis would put the Conservatives on course for their worst electoral performance ever, by some margin, with Labour securing a landslide 476 seats and the Lib Dems 59.

Large-scale MRP polling by Electoral Calculus surveyed 10,000 people taking tactical voting into account and was published on Friday night by GB News.

It puts Labour on 46 per cent, the Tories on 19 per cent, Reform UK on 12 per cent without any seats, and the Lib Dems on 10 per cent, with a 48-seat gain.

The survey also predicts 18 Conservative Cabinet members could lose their seats, including Oliver Dowden, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt.

Mr Hunt is keen to point out that the same poll predicted he would hold on to his seat, but added that such surveys should be taken “with a pinch of salt” and they “swing around a lot”.

He pointed to another poll which showed that only 40 per cent of voters have made up their minds as to who they will vote for on polling day.

“We’ve got a month to go,” he says. “One of the biggest changes over the last two decades has been the number of people who wait until the last minute before making up their mind. Politics is not class based anymore. People are making an informed decision and they want to think about it carefully.”

Mr Hunt believes that if the election is fought on “substance”, it is all to play for. And one area where he believes there is a clear dividing line between his party and Labour is on taxation.

The Conservatives will “absolutely” never bring in a wealth tax, he says, but the same cannot be said for Labour.

“Lots of people in the Labour Party have flirted with wealth taxes in the past, including Rachel Reeves. This is profoundly unconservative. If you want to encourage people to work hard for themselves and their families, then the worst possible thing you can do is to say ‘we’re going to tax any wealth that you accumulate’.”

Ms Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has previously ruled out introducing any wealth taxes, but the Tories say that Labour cannot be trusted to keep their word.

Similarly, Mr Hunt vows never to increase capital gains tax because “we want to encourage people to earn and to save. And increasing capital gains tax would send exactly the wrong signal for a society that wants to cultivate risk taking entrepreneurialism and wealth creation”.

As for Labour, they are “trying to leave as many doors open to the increase in taxes they can”, he says.

“They refused to rule out increasing VAT four times until we put them under pressure. So the question is, where would they go next? Would it be taxes on pensions or pensioners? Would it be taxes on business? Would it be taxes on people’s savings?

“I think the answer is a Labour government would try and pluck the goose or wherever it thought there would be the least noise.

“And if we want to grow the economy after the very difficult period we’ve been through, then that will be the most damaging outcome possible.”

Likewise, he promises that a Conservative government will never raise the top rate of tax.

Meanwhile, he says Labour claim they won’t do the same but adds: “Look at their track record, it was Labour that put up the top rate of tax in the last government. And so I think it’s pretty clear where their instincts are.”

Turning to stamp duty, he calls it a tax on “aspiration” and describes the levy on property purchases as “very distorting”. Asked whether he can rule out introducing any new taxes on expensive properties, Mr Hunt said: “If you are talking about stamp duty, then I think if anything we should be going in the opposite direction.”

The Chancellor said that stamp duty is “one of the things that puts people off moving house or buying a house for the first time. In a society which believes in aspiration, that’s something that you worry about. So I think stamp duty can be a very distorting tax”.

In May, The Telegraph disclosed that the Welsh Government is using satellites to spy on homeowners with big gardens, as it seeks to overhaul council tax.

Families who live in areas with good schools or lower crime rates are among those who will be hit with higher council tax bills, under plans being drawn up by the Senedd. Would Mr Hunt ever look to reevaluate council tax bands?

“I don’t rule our reforms to council tax,” he says, although he refuses to be drawn on the details.

“But I don’t think it should be done in a way that is designed to squeeze yet more money out of people as Labour are trying to do. It’s a very important tax for local government and it’s one that concerns a lot of people. But the way Labour is going about it in Wales is wrong.”

Mr Hunt is one of the great survivors of modern British politics. He ran twice, both times unsuccessfully, to be Tory party leader – first against Boris Johnson in 2019 and then once again in the summer of 2022 when he was eliminated in the first ballot of MPs and Liz Truss went on to win.

But far from his career in front line politics being over, he made a remarkable comeback when Ms Truss appointed him to be the new Chancellor in the wake of her disastrous mini-Budget.

“The interesting thing about Liz Truss is that when she made me Chancellor and I had to reverse nearly every big decision she had taken, she gave me a completely free hand,” he recalls.

“She didn’t stand in my way. At that point, she acted in the national interest. So you won’t find me criticising Liz Truss. Of course, she made mistakes, she said so herself. But I think it took a lot of courage to reverse those decisions as she was willing to do that.”

Mr Hunt admits that he has had some “very close shaves” during his time in politics.  “Probably the most terrifying one was the Leveson Inquiry, when I was wrongly accused of trying to fix the BSkyB takeover. I was vindicated but that was pretty terrifying.”

His biggest regret? “It’s not possible to look back on being the longest serving health secretary and have some things that you point to that you with the benefit of hindsight wish that you had done differently.

“I wish I had scrapped national targets in the NHS. We scrapped them from the police. We don’t have them in education. And both of those public services have done better as a result. And that’s something I hope the future Conservative government would look at.”

And his proudest moment? “Probably the thing that I will feel most proud of looking back is delivering a soft landing for the British economy when I became Chancellor.

“Inflation over 11 per cent, the Bank of England predicting the longest recession in 100 years. And working with Rishi Sunak, we achieved something that most people thought was utterly impossible.”