The Tories are in no position to attack Farage

When even Cabinet ministers are admitting that Labour will win the election, and that Thursday’s vote is now all about forming a strong enough opposition, one needs to read the writing on the wall: it’s over and we need to prepare for the reality and frustration of opposition.

The dangers posed by a Labour government are obvious. As I pound the pavements every day, I feel sick to my stomach at the thought of Starmer undoing Brexit, potentially signing up to a form of free movement, scrapping the Rwanda scheme and erasing the notion of a biological woman.

What will be worse? The larger class sizes, independent schools gone bust and a decolonised curriculum, or the net zero mania and the abandonment of Israel and British Jews? Sky high taxes will be but the mere tip of a massive iceberg.

Yes, it is notable that Labour’s vote share has not markedly increased in recent weeks, but our vote is evaporating from both Left and Right. The critics will cite Boris, Liz, Rwanda and, I can immodestly predict, even me as all being fatal to our “centrist” vote. The reality is rather different: we are haemorrhaging votes largely to Reform.

Why? Because we failed to cut immigration or tax, or deal with the net zero and woke policies we have presided over for 14 years. If our best defence is whining that the Left took over the institutions, who negligently let them? There’s a reason why insincere posturing isn’t fooling anyone now, and it’s our record in office.

Today the grandees – who, remember, bear no responsibility for the fate of the party they have led – lash out at Nigel Farage and Reform. I don’t agree with Mr Farage on everything, but we Tories need to reflect honestly and with humility to ask ourselves how a start-up party, with very little infrastructure, has galvanised the electorate and lured so many of our lifelong supporters?

The Reform phenomenon was predictable, avoidable and is entirely our own fault. This simple fact seems to be lost on my colleagues who have driven our party’s bus off the side of the cliff, while angrily blaming those of us who kept pointing at the obvious signs saying: “Cliff Edge Dead Ahead, Bad for Buses”.

Millions of traditional Tory voters are not wrong. In house after house, lifelong Conservatives are furious with our party. At worst, they feel betrayed and politically homeless. At best, they are torn about how to vote – hence the large number of undecided voters at this stage in the campaign. They feel as if we haven’t delivered for them on things they voted for time and time again.

We may lose hundreds of excellent MPs because of our abject inability to have foreseen this inevitability months ago: that our failure to unite the Right would destroy us. Tory Cabinet ministers attacking Farage is like a patient berating the doctor for the illness. It’s an illness that could have been easily prevented by the patient taking heed of the warnings years ago, admitting to the problem and adopting some healthy habits.

Take the repugnant bigotry expressed by some Reform candidates and their followers as a case study for what we have got wrong, too, while characteristically sneering at others for their mistakes.

Reform demonstrably failed to vet its candidates properly and these people should be nowhere near public life. I’ve been on the receiving end of racism myself and it’s right that the PM called it out. But cries of hurt and anger look less powerful when the Conservative Party was perfectly happy to take the money from Frank Hester. Remarks about hating black women were glossed over in the name of filling our party coffers. I don’t follow the logic. Nor do the voters. Whatever “the smartest men in the room” might privately think, the public are not in fact mugs.

Our voters are crying out for inspiration. They want a party that unapologetically fights for the best of our country, that celebrates our past and is excited about the future. They want to hear about timeless Conservative virtues, aspiration, and that we are the only party that will empower them to move forward, support their children and keep their families safe. They want a big vision of hope, optimism and love of our people.

I am still hoping for an England-style triumph, with our winning goals scored in the dying minutes of extra time. But if we don’t enjoy the same luck, we need a searingly honest post-match analysis. Because the fight for the soul of the Conservative Party will determine whether we allow Starmer a clear run at destroying our country for good, or having a chance to redeem it in due course.

Indeed, it will decide whether our party continues to exist at all.