Trump must get back to campaign basics

With just over a month until election day, our latest polling research at CT Group reveals a momentum shift in the 2024 presidential race. I have run national election campaigns across several decades and in my experience, failure to anticipate these momentum shifts and understand their drivers always proves fatal for a campaign.

Our research goes beyond simple voter intention, diving into the motivations, issues and hesitations driving voters. The results show that despite economic dissatisfaction, Harris has gained an edge on the issues that matter most to voters – Trump’s core strengths are weakening, and time is running out for him to reverse course.

Amongst likely voters, Harris is ahead at 51.7 per cent to 46 per cent. Harris voters are also more likely to be definite to turn out to vote (74 per cent vs 49 per cent) and are less likely to be soft (change their mind and vote for someone else) by 13 per cent to 20 per cent. Nationally and in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, Kamala Harris has erased Donald Trump’s lead.

Turnout is crucial in every election, but this year it’s especially critical. Our polling indicates that 31 per cent of Trump supporters are either unlikely or possible voters, compared to 25 per cent of Harris’s supporters. While this gives Trump more room to mobilise, it also highlights the importance of having a strong ground operation to organise turnout in key states and districts and understanding what is influencing likely voters.

In battleground states, Trump is either tied or slightly trailing Harris, a stark contrast to earlier in the race when Biden was the Democrat nominee. Voters in these states, which are pivotal to winning the election, are heavily focused on the economy, inflation, and immigration. Yet Trump’s message on these issues hasn’t cut through as it once did. In part this is because of his inability to maintain message discipline on these issues.

Harris has made inroads by focusing on voters’ economic anxieties while positioning herself as a reliable alternative to Trump’s somewhat erratic approach. Her stance on reproductive rights has also resonated with key groups like suburban women, making them more motivated to vote and giving her an additional advantage in these swing states.

Our data reveals that many voters, especially those likely to cast a ballot, feel worse off than they did four years ago. Yet despite their economic frustration, these voters are leaning toward Harris. This signals a critical shift in the dynamics of the race.

In previous elections, Trump led on the economy and immigration. However, this latest polling now shows that Harris leads on managing the economy, setting the right tax policies, and handling immigration – issues where Trump historically had an advantage.

Trump’s failure to consistently focus on these critical issues is a misstep. Voters may feel worse off economically, but they don’t hold Harris responsible. Instead, she has successfully distanced herself from the broader frustrations tied to the administration’s record. Trump, by contrast, has allowed his messaging to drift into distractions and irrelevant commentary which fail to address voters’ core concerns.

By staying disciplined, Harris is winning over voters who might otherwise be swayed by Trump’s critique of the current administration. As Trump’s economic edge weakens, voters are focusing more on his personal characteristics. Our polling reveals that many see Trump as chaotic, divisive and risky. This is hurting him with moderate voters who might agree with his economic message but are put off by his leadership style.

Age is another issue both candidates face, but Trump appears to be more vulnerable. Voters see him as “too old” and question whether he can lead effectively, particularly given the controversies and unpredictability that defined his presidency.

Meanwhile, Harris is benefiting from her portrayal as stable and reliable. This contrast has allowed her to capture undecided voters who are concerned about Trump’s style. With only six weeks remaining, Trump must get back to campaign basics, remember that the election is about the voters – not him – and urgently refocus his campaign on the issues voters care about most and mobilise those voters who are willing to support him but unsure as to whether they will even vote.

Sir Lynton Crosby AO is executive chairman of CT Group