Trump rally shooting likely to change election campaigns as security tightens

The shocking assassination attempt against Donald Trump is likely to lead to a ramping up of security across the American political landscape as the 2024 presidential election continues to play out against a backdrop of rising political violence.

In the immediate future there are set to be increased efforts to prevent any violence of disruption at the Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, this week which now will unfold against a backdrop of the attempt on Trump’s life.

Given the stunning lapse in security at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, which saw a single gunman repeatedly shoot at Trump from the roof of a building near to the stage from which he was speaking, the already huge effort in Milwaukee will be tightened further. A senior federal official told NBC that RNC security plans are being re-examined after the assassination attempt.

The Trump campaign’s co-managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita also sent a memo following the shooting to campaign staff confirming that the RNC convention will continue as planned, though it also asked staff to avoid campaign offices in Washington and Florida “as they’re assessed” and would be “enhancing the armed security presence with 24/7 officers on-site”.

The Wisconsin governor, Tony Evers, said on social media: “My staff and I are in contact with those coordinating security planning for the RNC and will continue to be in close communication as we learn more about this situation.”

But even if it goes ahead, the RNC convention is also running afoul of the culture war fight over firearms that so often mars American politics. The US has notoriously lax firearms laws and the Republican convention has already been a focus of a fight over the right to bear arms at the event – something many Republicans support.

According to the US Secret Service, firearms will not be allowed inside the main event space of the Fiserv Forum or other buildings where RNC events are set to take place, or in the so-called “hard perimeter” around the convention where credentials are required for entry.

But Wisconsin law means most guns will not be banned in the area immediately outside the convention perimeter, because state law expressly forbids the city of Milwaukee from enacting such a ban. A local effort to get that changed failed earlier this year.

The broader effect of the shooting on campaigning the presidential race is also likely to be noticeable. Trump has long made a habit of holding frequent rallies around the country that can attract tens of thousands of people, and it remains to be seen if he will call off future events or double down on his strategy.

His campaign managers in their memo warned staff about “political polarization this heated election. If something looks or feels off, please flag it immediately for leadership on an on-site security team”.

In New York, police increased security at Trump Tower in Manhattan. “Out of an abundance of caution, the NYPD is surging officers to certain sites across the five boroughs,” New York City mayor Eric Adams wrote on X.

The Biden campaign will also similarly be on high alert, given the failure of the Secret Service – which protect Biden, as current president, as well as Trump, as a former president and current candidate – to prevent the shooting.

The Pennsylvania shooting likely marks the Secret Service’s biggest security crisis since former president Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981, by a stalker of the actor Jodie Foster. Reagan survived the attack.

There was criticism of the Secret Service for allowing the shooter to get near enough to fire at Trump.

The agency denied rumors that it had rejected a request in recent days to increase Trump’s security. “This is absolutely false,” said spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi on social media. “In fact, we added protective resources & technology & capabilities as part of the increased campaign travel tempo.”

Nevertheless, the oversight committee in the Republican-led House of Representatives also said it would call Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle to testify at a hearing on 22 July.

It made no secret of its anger that the attack had happened. “Americans demand answers about the assassination attempt of President Trump,” the panel said in a statement on social media.

Political violence has also affected several Democrats including the congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who was injured in 2011 at a mass shooting at a constituent event, while the now 84-year-old husband of then House speaker Nancy Pelosi was attacked at home by an assailant who broke into their house on 28 October 2022, fracturing Paul Pelosi’s skull with a hammer.