Why Trump chose JD Vance

Mike Bebernes

Ohio Sen. JD Vance formally accepted his party’s nomination for vice president at the Republican National Convention in his first major speech since being tapped as Donald Trump’s running mate.

“My message to you, my fellow Republicans, is — we love this country and we are united to win,” Vance said early in a lengthy address in which he spoke about his own path to politics, heaped praise on Trump and aimed harsh criticism at President Biden.

Vance first rose to the national stage thanks to his memoir 2016, Hillbilly Elegy, which chronicled his journey from growing up in poverty in the American Rust Belt to enlisting in the Marines and attending Yale Law School. At the time, he was a fierce critic of then-candidate Trump, writing that he was “unfit” for the presidency and questioning on social media whether he was “America's Hitler”

Vance has since said that he was “wrong” about Trump and gradually became one of the former president’s most fervent supporters. He was elected to represent Ohio in the Senate in 2022 after winning a tightly contested Republican primary in the state, thanks in part to Trump’s endorsement.

Always a staunch conservative, Vance has fully embraced the MAGA approach to politics. His views are as far to the right — and in some cases farther — as Trump’s position on key issues like abortion, immigration, climate change, LGBTQ rights and foreign policy. He has backed Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election, saying that he would not have certified President Biden’s victory had he been in former Vice President Mike Pence’s position.

Trump’s decision to go with Vance is indicative of how much has changed in the Republican Party since he first ran for president in 2016. Selecting Pence — a devout, soft-spoken Reagan-style conservative — was widely seen as a way to reassure evangelicals who were turned off by Trump’s persona and string of scandals. Vance, on the other hand, aligns closer with Trump's ideals and can speak directly to the Rust Belt states critical to another Trump victory.

In choosing Vance, Trump broke from the logic that has tended to guide recent vice presidential decisions. Vance isn’t from a swing state and he is quite similar to Trump, both demographically and ideologically. One historian described the choice as Trump opting for “a younger clone of himself.”

But Vance does have some differences from Trump that could matter to voters. His blue collar background, a far cry from Trump’s early life in New York City, may have helped him earn the nod. He told Fox News this week that Trump specifically mentioned the benefits he might provide in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania when calling to offer him the position. Vance is also just 39 years old, which may prove appealing to young voters who might be wary about Trump's age now that President Biden has stepped out of the race.

The general consensus among historians, though, is that most running mates have little or no impact on who wins presidential elections. That reality has fueled discussions about what Trump might see in Vance outside of his potential influence on the results in November.

Selecting the first millennial VP candidate is also a way for Trump to cement the MAGA movement’s command over the Republican Party for the long term. Republican Rep. Jim Banks called Vance “the future of the GOP” in an interview with Axios and the conservative Washington Examiner’s editorial board described him as a “natural vehicle” to bolster Trump’s vision for the country and lead it into the future.

Trump may also have prioritized a number two who he feels will back him in a way that Pence wouldn’t. “You need someone who’s going to be extremely loyal to the president,” one state-level GOP lawmaker told KQED. “I think JD is the man for that job.” Democrats, though, view Vance as less loyal than he is subservient. “Trump looked for someone he knew would be a rubber stamp for his extreme agenda,” Vice President Kamala Harris said in a campaign video released on Tuesday.

Above anything, Trump wants someone he knows he can control

“He is so transparently a man who will say whatever his betters require him to say to get what he wants from them. Telling people with money and power what they want to hear is the only consistent throughline in his career. … Now he is an appendage of Donald Trump’s after a long and bitter apprenticeship of sycophancy.” — Kevin D. Williamson, Dispatch

Trump needs a standard bearer to carry MAGA into the future

“Trump’s choice of Vance is not an entreaty to voters on the fence but a signal to all Americans, and especially Republicans, that the GOP remade in Trump’s image will extend beyond 2024.” — Grace Segers, New Republic

Vance does provide a contrast in Trump is ways that could matter

“Vance brings youth and intellect to the Republican ticket. He could also strengthen the ticket in the upper Midwest, which Joe Biden must win to be reelected. … Unlike Trump, he is a military veteran and a real product of the working class.” — David A. Graham, Atlantic

Vance is one of the MAGA movement’s best spokesmen

“Vance is smart and sure-footed. He’ll almost certainly be an effective spokesman for the ticket. He’s given to outlandish statements, especially on social media, but that isn’t his only mode. He’s very difficult for hostile interviewers to corner and was perfectly comfortable going on mainstream outlets during the VP audition period. More fundamentally, he’s a MAGA pick for an increasingly MAGA party.” — Editorial, National Review

Selecting Vance serves to kill off the last remnants of the old Republican Party

“Mr. Trump so totally dominates today’s Republican Party that he feels no need to build bridges within it. By choosing Mr. Vance, Mr. Trump made a clean break with the Republican free traders, entitlement reformers and foreign policy hawks who remain wary of him. He believes he doesn’t need their votes to win, and he’s probably right.” — Matthew Continetti, New York Times

Vance has made it clear he’ll put Trump over the Constitution

“Vance has … made clear that he might be willing to cross a line that Pence wouldn't, and that may have helped him get the job.” — Ryan Teague Beckwith, MSNBC

Choosing a former critic is a signal that there is no room for dissent within the GOP

“Vance’s ascension is owed to something else entirely. He is the embodiment — and one of the most articulate defenders — of a belief system that has gradually taken hold of the Republican Party, one that prizes cultural and ideological warfare and rewards the warriors who are most effective in taking the fight to non-believers.” — Charlie Mahtesian and Calder McHugh, Politico

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