Xi Jinping forecasts ‘rough seas’ on 75th anniversary of People’s Republic of China

Xi Jinping has warned of “rough seas” ahead for China’s people in a speech marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China that was notable for the lack of major festivities.

In the speech to about 3,000 Chinese Communist party (CCP) members and foreign dignitaries on Monday, the eve of China’s national day, Xi praised China’s advancement since Communist forces ousted the Nationalist government and established the PRC.

Xi, head of China’s ruling CCP, said “no difficulties can stop the Chinese people from moving forward” but called on the population to be “vigilant”, prepare for danger, and rely on the party and its army ahead of tough times.

“The road ahead will not be smooth, there will definitely be difficulties and obstacles, and we may encounter major tests such as high winds and rough seas, or even stormy waves,” said Xi, who has tightened control over the CCP and Chinese people during his rule.

China is the world’s second-largest economy and second most populous nation but has struggled to bounce back after the Covid-19 pandemic and major issues in its housing sector – two of the biggest drivers of an economic downturn that is also affected by an ageing population and low consumer spending.

In recent weeks the government has announced a raft of measures to boost the economy, including lowering interest rates and raising the retirement age, but analysts have warned it may not be enough. It is also engaged in territorial disputes with neighbours including the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan that are significant drivers of ongoing hostilities with the US – a major supporter of all three.

In his speech, Xi reiterated plans to annex Taiwan under what he terms “reunification”. The CCP claims Taiwan as a Chinese province, and subsuming it into the PRC is a key priority. Taiwan, though, has never been ruled from the Chinese mainland since the CCP took power there.

“Taiwan is China’s sacred territory, and the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are connected by blood, and blood is thicker than water,” Xi said during the speech, according to China’s state media. “No one can stop the wheel of history.”

The CCP has not ruled out using force to take Taiwan and has introduced laws to impose the death penalty on those it finds to be serious separatists – including senior political figures from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive party.

Taiwan’s people and their democratically elected independent government overwhelmingly reject the prospect of CCP rule, wishing to maintain the delicate status quo. Taiwan is boosting domestic defences in preparation for a potential attack. The US is a major weapons supplier to Taiwan, under US legislation requiring it to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

On Sunday the US government approved the biggest military sales package to date: US$567m worth of weapons, training, and logistics support.

In response, China’s ministry of foreign affairs accused the US of “conniving” and “emboldening” secessionist forces, undermining peace and stability in the region, and warned its support would “backfire”. “No matter how many weapons the US provides to the Taiwan region, it will never weaken our firm will in opposing ‘Taiwan independence’ and safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a spokesman said.

The banquet where Xi spoke was one of few events marking the 75th anniversary. Tuesday was a surprisingly muted affair marked in Beijing only by a flag raising ceremony in Tiananmen Square. Past milestone years have seen opulent ceremonies and big military parades.

Chinese state media headlines ran Xi’s speech prominently, but focused mostly on the positive elements, lauding China’s achievements under CCP rule. Coverage was otherwise muted compared to past years, a likely signal that the authorities are avoiding ostentatious displays while Chinese people are under financial strain.

By contrast, Hong Kong is reportedly expected to hold a record number of events, overseen by thousands of police. In the wake of the 2019 pro-democracy protest and government crackdown, Hong Kong has become increasingly controlled by and aligned with the CCP. An electoral overhaul has ensured only pro-Beijing “patriots” can sit in the legislature, and national security legislation has effectively banned public forms of dissent.

Additional research by Chi-hui Lin