New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Kamala Harris has a huge head start for the Democratic nomination — and the strongest numbers against Trump

Andrew Romano

Vice President Kamala Harris is launching her last-minute campaign for the 2024 Democratic nomination with a huge head start over other would-be candidates, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll — and the strongest head-to-head numbers against former President Donald Trump.

The survey of 1,743 U.S. adults — which was conducted from July 19 to July 22, mostly before President Biden ended his reelection bid on Sunday — shows that Harris’s support among Democratic voters as a potential Biden replacement had surged from 38% to 59% in the three weeks leading up to the president’s big announcement, while support for "someone else" had plummeted from 42% to 24%.

And what about Harris’s support now, after Biden has dropped out and endorsed her? The new Yahoo News/YouGov poll asked respondents to imagine that scenario as well. With Biden’s (then-hypothetical) endorsement, Harris’s support shot up another 9 points, to 68%, among voters who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents.

Support for someone else, meanwhile, slipped to just 19%.

These fresh poll numbers — along with an avalanche of additional endorsements from leading Democratic figures and reports that she has already secured a majority of Democratic delegates — suggest Harris is well on her way to locking down the nomination ahead of next month’s convention in Chicago.

But questions remain. Could Harris have defeated other promising Democrats in an open contest? And is she really the strongest candidate to square off against Trump in November?

The new Yahoo News/YouGov survey shows that even before the Democratic establishment coalesced around Harris in the wake of Biden’s withdrawal, rank-and-file Democratic voters were already moving in her direction.

In fact, nearly half (49%) of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they would favor Harris as the new nominee over a field of hypothetical challengers, up from 31% three weeks ago against a different list of alternatives.

In the new poll, California Gov. Gavin Newsom finished in a distant second place at just 9% — down from 17% previously. And other rising Democratic stars — Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (7%), Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (5%), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (3%), Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (2%), Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (2%), Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (1%) and Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (1%) — lagged even further behind, which may partially explain why all of them (including Newsom) have now endorsed Harris rather than challenging her.

As for the general election, Harris (46%) is currently tied with Trump (46%) among registered voters in a hypothetical matchup. Immediately before withdrawing, Biden (45%) was tied with Trump (45%) as well.

But compared to the president, Harris performs three points better among women, seven points better among Americans aged 18 to 29, seven points better among independents, eight points better among Black Americans and 13 points better among those who view both Biden and Trump unfavorably (so-called “double haters”). (These groups have small sample sizes and therefore larger margins of error than the survey as a whole.)

In contrast, Trump (46%) would defeat lower-profile Democrats such as Newsom (40%), Whitmer (41%) or Shapiro (39%) if the election were held today, according to the poll. It’s possible the national spotlight would improve their standing. But the opposite is also possible.

The sprint ahead of Harris will not be simple or smooth. Fifteen days from now, Democratic delegates will choose their nominee; voters will pick the next president less than 90 days later. That’s a heavy lift for any candidate.

If Harris wins the Democratic nomination, she would enter the general election with some vulnerabilities. For one thing, Trump leads Harris 43% to 41% when third-party candidates are factored in; independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. siphons off 5% of the vote. The new Yahoo News/YouGov poll showed Biden in an identical position prior to bowing out.

Harris’s favorable rating among Americans (40%) is slightly higher than Biden’s (37%) — but slightly lower than Trump’s (43%). Just 35% of Americans approve of the job she’s doing as vice president, which is roughly as bad as Biden’s rating (37% — a new low) and significantly worse than his predecessor’s, at least in retrospect. Looking back, slightly more Americans now approve (47%) than disapprove (46%) of how Trump handled the presidency.

It’s worth noting, however, that the share of Americans who disapprove of the job Harris is doing (48%) isn’t in Biden territory yet. Why? Because 16% of them remain unsure what to think about her performance in office.

For Biden — and Trump — the corresponding number is just 6%. Harris’s unfavorable rating (51%) is lower than theirs as well (58% and 53%, respectively). Minds are made up, in other words, about the two presidents. Impressions of Harris are a little less set in stone. In the weeks and months ahead, that’s likely to change. Harris’s job is to change it for the better.

Again, the new Yahoo News/YouGov survey was mostly conducted before Harris announced her candidacy — a moment Democrats met with favorable memes and more than $100 million in donations. It's unclear if this initial reaction will boost Harris’s polling in the future.

But for now, Democrats clearly see her bid as a step in the right direction. Immediately before Biden dropped out, only 35% of them said he should remain in the race — down from 55% in March. More than twice as many said that with a different nominee, the party would have a better chance (41%) rather than a worse chance (16%) of defeating Trump. And a similar plurality said Harris would be more fit to serve as president (39%) than Biden (16%).

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By nearly every measure, Biden’s position had become untenable. Just 25% of Americans said he was up to the challenges facing the U.S.; even fewer (22%) said he was fit to serve another term as president. For Trump, those numbers are both 44% — roughly twice as high. The same share of registered voters (44%) believe Harris is ready to serve as president.

Finally, a full 58% of Americans said no when asked if they think “Joe Biden and those around him have been truthful about his health” — a group that possibly includes Harris herself. Only 21% said yes.

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The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,743 U.S. adults interviewed online from July 19 to 22, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to Nov. 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.8%.

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