Senate Democrats Up For Reelection Are Doing Well. It Might Not Be Enough To Win A Majority.

Senate Democrats facing reelection this year are running strong in every single presidential battleground state, but it still might not be enough to maintain the party’s hold on the upper chamber next year.

What once looked like a brutal map for Democrats ― with half a dozen vulnerable incumbents in the Senate, hindered by an unpopular Democratic president in the White House ― now appears to be less so, according to new polling from The Cook Political Report.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey leads wealthy businessman Dave McCormick 53% to 40%. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads entrepreneur Eric Hovde 50% to 43%. And in Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen leads veteran Sam Brown by a whopping 18 percentage points.

Democrats are also faring well in races for two open Senate seats. In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego is leading Republican election denier Kari Lake 51% to 42%. In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin tops former House GOP Rep. Mike Rogers 50% to 42%.

The renewed enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic presidential ticket last month, is helping boost not only her campaign against former President Donald Trump but down-ballot candidates as well. Democrats improved their vote share in every race since Cook last conducted polls on the presidential battlegrounds in May.

“The surge has been particularly large in Nevada, which had been one of Biden’s worst states,” Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote on Thursday.

However, polling averages show very tight races in most of these states, Election Day is still nearly three months away, and the risk of polling error can’t be discounted in some areas, as evidenced in previous elections.

The big problem for Democrats is that, unless they expand the map and flip a Republican seat, all their efforts to retain a majority in the Senate might be for naught. With Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) retiring and his seat all but certain to flip to the GOP next year, Democrats can afford to lose only one more seat if they keep the White House.

Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) ― two red-state Democrats defending seats where Trump is extremely popular ― are viewed as the most vulnerable to a GOP challenge. Polls have shown Brown with an edge over his businessman opponent Bernie Moreno, but Tester has trailed veteran Tim Sheehy in recent surveys.

Both Tester and Brown are running on their bipartisan legislative accomplishments in the Senate, such as providing veterans care and manufacturing stimulus, as well as highlighting times they bucked their party. Tester is one of the few Democrats who has yet to endorse Harris, for example.

Democrats have also gone on the offense by seeking to unseat Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott in the GOP strongholds of Texas and Florida, but those campaigns are viewed as more of a long shot. One recent poll found Scott’s Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, within striking distance, however.

Top Democrats are riding high for now. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said he felt “exhilarated and gratified” by the surge of enthusiasm behind Harris, predicting his party would hold the Senate and win back the House next year.

“We are so enthusiastic about the prospects of winning the presidency, keeping the Senate and winning the House,” Schumer told The Associated Press earlier this month.