Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 4 Fantasy Football

Matt Harmon

Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.

Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.

Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.

Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.

Let’s dive into my Week 4 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

The undefeated and white-hot Minnesota Vikings will take on a division rival in Green Bay, who will likely welcome back their franchise quarterback. Jordan Love sounds ready to return from his Week 1 knee injury.

It’s not the softest landing spot for Love to make his return. Brian Flores has been putting quarterbacks in the blender dating back to last year and he’s just pitched a couple of excellent performances back-to-back against Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud. According to Fantasy Points Data, Minnesota has the second-highest blitz rate in the league (39%) and plays two-high coverage at the highest rate (77.9%). That makes them a challenging matchup for just about any passer, and it’ll likely put Love into some chaotic spots in his first game back.

As a result, I’m expecting the Packers to be run-focused again this week and funnel targets to Jayden Reed. Unlike last year, Reed is a full-time player who has run a route on over 70% of the dropbacks. He’s the underneath option who could push for eight-plus targets against this two-high defense.

The Vikings offense has been effective and balanced so far this season. According to Next Gen Stats, Aaron Jones ranks fourth among running backs in rushing EPA this season. Sam Darnold has been a revelation as the starting quarterback. It’s hard to calibrate the Packers' defense through three weeks because, after getting worked over by the Eagles in Week 1, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis the next two games are a bit too erratic to qualify as a real test. Regardless, the Minnesota offensive pieces are in our circle of trust for now.

Any matchup between two top-five quarterbacks in an island game should get waved right into the binge category.

The Bills enter this game fresh off a full-scale demolition of the Jaguars. The Ravens will be a stiffer test. That said, this isn’t the same Baltimore defense of old through three games. The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing success rate allowed but have ceded the most passing yards per game. The Ravens don’t have the same pass-rush juice as last year and are breaking in a new defensive coordinator.

Josh Allen and co. showed last week that despite not having a No. 1 receiver and overall being a far more run-focused offense than before, they can still shred through the air. No player in Buffalo has a target share north of 19% or a route rate above 70%, so it’s difficult to trust any of these players in fantasy. However, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have the most established roles. They’re the favorite to lead the team in receiving in any given week.

The Ravens offense has been a mixed bag. Lamar Jackson’s third- and fourth-down passer rating ranks 21st among quarterbacks to start two-plus games this year. Their passing game struggles in true dropback situations for a variety of reasons. The Bills' zone-heavy defense is likely to keep Jackson out of scramble drills and force him to find receivers in the intermediate area. Tight end Mark Andrews ran just four routes last week, and if he’s limited again, the aerial attack in Baltimore will be pretty limited as well. They need to get Rashod Bateman some more diverse presnap alignment and get Zay Flowers out of the designed-touches role he’s been stuck in for far too long.

The good news is that Derrick Henry and the run game have looked better every week. The Bills are a tougher defense up front than Dallas — just about everyone is — but this rushing attack has started to sync with what Henry does as a downhill runner. He’s a back-half RB1 the rest of the way in fantasy.

If recent history is any indication, this matchup will be a shootout-style, fantasy football bonanza.

My one concern about projecting that type of game is the two defenses here, which are both much improved from previous versions.

Seattle currently ranks No. 1 in defensive success rate allowed. Some of that has to do with facing Bo Nix in his first start, the Patriots and a Dolphins team without Tua Tagovailoa. However, Mike Macdonald has this team playing smart football and has made great in-game adjustments. There’s some stability with this result, even if No. 1 overall is a stretch. For Detroit, its run defense remains one of the premier units in the league and its pass rush and outside cornerback coverage is better than previous versions of Aaron Glenn’s units.

These two offenses are still good enough to get rolling. It feels like Seattle’s scoring unit is flying under the radar. Geno Smith is playing like a top-10 quarterback right now and ranks sixth in dropback success rate. He’s made great decisions and, in a world where most quarterbacks are playing check-down specialist against two-high, he’s pushing it downfield. That said, this looks like a great game for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Detroit has played well against perimeter wideouts but has been stung by power slots like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin this year.

The Lions offense quietly hasn’t torn it up through the air. Jared Goff ranks 24th in dropback EPA this season. He’s made uncharacteristic mistakes and in my opinion, they’ve gotten away from some of the efficient bread-and-butter underneath passing. With Seattle playing some funky coverages on the back end and Sam LaPorta dealing with an injury, it’s a great game to get Amon-Ra St. Brown rolling.

Keep an eye on the center position where star Frank Ragnow is now out of commission with an injury. He’s one of the best centers in the league, and his absence could negatively impact a run game that is one of the best out there this season.

Most important Saints storyline: The Saints' offense was the story of the first two weeks but has started to run into roadblocks. The biggest is a pair of injuries on the offensive line, with Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz set to miss multiple weeks. McCoy's absence will be particularly brutal. The Saints' surge on offense was based on a ferocious and precisely executed zone-rushing attack that kept Derek Carr in positive down and distances to take shots off play-action. Many of the passing game wrinkles that Klint Kubiak has used can still be present but the teeth will come out of this offense if the run game is less efficient and pass protection becomes an issue.

Most important Falcons storyline: Atlanta's passing game continues to be scrutinized. The Falcons rank a surprising fifth in passing success rate, but there haven’t been many scoring plays or downfield shots yet. Despite some shakier moments under pressure in Week 3, Kirk Cousins and co. continue to show some promise after a dreadful Week 1. The Falcons have started to prioritize Drake London (27% target share in Weeks 2 and 3) and continue to get good play out of some of the secondary receivers like Darnell Mooney. If Cousins can get rolling against a tight Saints secondary, the already dwindling panic about the Falcons offense will continue to dissipate.

Most important Rams storyline: Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay turned in brilliant performances in Week 3 when most of us had left them for dead. Despite multiple offensive coordinator injuries and the absence of both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, the Rams’ offense was not just functional but dangerous against the 49ers. The wide receiver injuries forced the Rams to get back to more 12 personnel looks which brought Tutu Atwell back into the mix. The speedy receiver ran a route on 86.2% of the dropbacks. His speed opens things up for other players, including the run game, and will help him cash in big plays when he’s on the field.

Most important Bears storyline: The Rams rank 29th in dropback EPA allowed. Their defense has been one of the most generous to opposing passing games. The Bears didn’t win the game last week against Indianapolis, and Caleb Williams made his share of mistakes, but it was by far their most promising passing day so far. This is the type of matchup where, if the Bears' shaky pass protection holds up, Williams and co. can find some big plays downfield. The new offensive coordinator hasn’t found a way to get DJ Moore going just yet but that should be a priority, especially as Rome Odunze was added to the injury report on Thursday and Keenan Allen is still dealing with a heel issue. If Odunze is healthy, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be the other main focal point. There have been far too many designed plays for mediocre players in this offense, not the main guys.

Most important Steelers storyline: Justin Fields looks comfortable as the Steelers QB1. We have yet to see a dominant rushing game from Fields. There are many reasons behind this. For starters, this team wasn’t sure he’d be the starter for a long stretch to begin the season. By now, Arthur Smith should have had more than enough time to come up with some packages to exploit Fields’ rushing ability. With injuries in the running back room, it makes even more sense to uncork Fields as a runner in Week 4. The Colts have allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league, so the matchup is ripe for the Steelers to get a run game going.

Most important Colts storyline: It feels as if Anthony Richardson’s passing ability will be under the microscope every single week. He’s been one of the least consistently accurate passers in the NFL. He can still uncork some heaters in the vertical game, but there’s no meat and potatoes to this passing game right now. As such, you can’t play a Colts receiver in fantasy right now. Michael Pittman Jr. shouldn’t be dropped because Richardson is talented and could turn this around but the situation is dire with so many other intriguing talents on the depth chart. A date with the Steelers' ferocious defense is hardly the moment to expect the rebound.

Most important Eagles storyline:The Eagles will likely be without both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in Week 4. Even Britain Covey, who had been running as the No. 3 receiver, is out for multiple weeks. That leaves behind Dallas Goedert as the likely top target-earner after he turned in a dominant game in Week 3 to push him to the TE1 overall in fantasy. The bigger question is what comes from the wide receiver room. Former Commanders' Round 1 pick Jahan Dotson hasn’t done much in an Eagles uniform, but perhaps they’ll have him ramped up more after arriving to the team in late August. Otherwise, massive rookie Johnny Wilson will be asked to step up as an inside/outside threat.

Most important Buccaneers storyline: We haven’t seen a big Mike Evans game since Week 1, where he scored twice against the Commanders. Chris Godwin leads the team in first-read target share with 38.2% to 21.8% for Evans. Godwin’s 39.4% air yard share even bests Evans’ 38.4%. Some of that is Godwin playing well as the power slot in this offense. Most of it is just due to matchups. Week 4 looks like an excellent spot for Evans to rebound against an Eagles team with beatable perimeter cornerbacks.

Most important Bengals storyline: The Bengals are staring down the barrel of an 0-4 start which would create some painfully uncomfortable tension inside that building. The defense is the biggest issue and could be why the Bengals could fall to a suddenly frisky Panthers offense. That said, there’s no reason the Bengals offense shouldn’t hit big in this spot. The passing game is fully stocked with Tee Higgins back in the fold, and running back Zack Moss has a great matchup against the Panthers' run defense. This game could turn into a weird but high-scoring affair.

Most important Panthers storyline: The Panthers offense with Andy Dalton averaged 6.2 yards per play compared to 3.4 in what was likely the final game of the Bryce Young era. They scored on 64% of their drives in Week 3; just 12% through the first two games. Getting a competent veteran quarterback at the helm of a well-designed offense made all the difference in the world. Diontae Johnson was the main beneficiary, producing a career-high 122 receiving yards. Chuba Hubbard also had his best game in quite some time with the ceiling of the offense raised. With Dalton under center, we can start these Panthers players with confidence, especially against a hapless Bengals defense. Also, try to stash rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette with Adam Thielen now on IR.

Most important Commanders storyline: Jayden Daniels is coming off a special performance last Monday night. Daniels completed +20.8% of his passes over expected, the highest CPOE by a qualified passer in a game this season, per Next Gen Stats. The question is whether Kliff Kingsbury continues to dial up deep passes at the rate we saw in Week 3 after mostly horizontal raid attacks in Weeks 1 and 2. Daniels has such a talented arm they have no reason to go away from it. Most of it will come down to protection. Daniels was rarely pressured on Monday but that may have had to do with a bad Bengals defense more than anything else. The Cardinals aren’t an all-world stop unit so this does look like another strong week to chase ceilings for your Commanders players.

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Most important Cardinals storyline: The Commanders rank 32nd in dropback EPA allowed and 31st in passing success rate allowed. The secondary has been a mess this season and has given up massive games to No. 1 wide receivers this year. Mike Evans, Malik Nabers and Ja’Marr Chase averaged 102 yards against this team with four combined touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a smash spot. Since his Week 1 flop, Harrison has a 55% share of the Cardinals' air yards and looks every bit the part of a No. 1 wideout. Don’t rule out second-year receiver Michael Wilson getting in on the action. He’s run a route on 84% of the dropbacks this year as the clear No. 2 wide receiver and may get more volume with Trey McBride ruled out.

Most important Jaguars storyline: Is there any hope left for the Jaguars offense? Everything feels like a mess at the moment. The biggest issue is that there is no consistency in the passing attack, and the run game is once again broken. The Jaguars were too dink-and-dink as a passing team last year, and now they’ve overcorrected. Trevor Lawrence leads all quarterbacks in deep-throw rate. When those shots don’t hit, there’s just no rhythm to the offense.

Most important Texans storyline: With Tank Dell likely to miss this game, we are in a smash spot for both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. According to Fantasy Points Data, no one has played more man coverage than the Jacksonville Jaguars. Collins is one of the best man-beating receivers in the NFL.

For Diggs’ part, he’s still a strong receiver against man coverage. He should also get fed plenty of short-area targets, as we’ve seen for the first three weeks. With Dell not commanding targets, Diggs could push for another double-digit catch game.

One reason to watch: Aaron Rodgers looks better each passing week. He’s been under pressure on 24% of his dropbacks, per PFF, the second-fewest among QBs to start three games. The offensive line has been much improved over last year’s version. Rodgers has a top-10 passer rating when kept clean and a 2.10 time to throw on those plays, the fastest among quarterbacks. This team is looking to get the ball out quickly, which is another reason for Garrett Wilson’s slow start. I don’t know if a date with Patrick Surtain will be the moment to start pushing the ball downfield but those moments will come. For now, we can take solace in Rodgers looking close to his old self.

One reason to maybe watch: The 49ers got an all-time performance from Jauan Jennings in Week 3. While he won’t do that every week, Jennings is a good football player who has earned opportunities. He is a viable WR3 at worst as long as guys like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are out. Meanwhile, there will be plenty of panic about Brandon Aiyuk after a slow start to the season. But remember, he’s still working back into the rhythm of football after not participating in the offseason.

The film is still good; he’s just let a few passes slip and has mistimed others. That will correct itself at any moment once he’s more up to speed. Don’t freak out about this.

One reason to maybe watch: Brock Bowers’ route participation has gone down every single week from 78% in Week 1 to 65% to 60% last week. That makes no sense. Bowers is a dynamic receiver who runs the layup routes to complement Davante Adams as the vertical receiver. The Raiders have been a bit identity-free on offense thus far and are considering a quarterback change. Regardless of what happens going forward, Bowers’ playing time can’t be limited in any way. He’s been one of the few right answers in fantasy at this position and is one of the team’s most dynamic players.

One reason to maybe watch: There’s almost no chance that Skyler Thompson will make another start this week. We’ll likely get Tim Boyle or, hopefully, Tyler Huntley. The former Ravens backup quarterback has given some competent performances as a starter and is a threat as a runner. He is a dramatically different quarterback than Tua Tagovailoa, so we wouldn’t just immediately launch Miami back up the offensive rankings, but he would make the unit more watchable than last week's outing.

One reason to maybe watch: The Chargers are dealing with a litany of injuries, including Justin Herbert and both starting tackles, which is why this game sinks so low. I can’t imagine they risk any of these guys with a bye in Week 5. For the Chiefs, Xavier Worthy isn’t a guy we can start in fantasy right now. He’s run a route on 67% of the dropbacks but hasn’t looked ready to be a high-volume target as an outside receiver. Kansas City needs him to step up because their passing game has been outrageously small-ball with power slot Rashee Rice the only quality starter at the moment.

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