Fantasy Basketball: 3 guards to avoid in drafts at their current ADP

Dan Titus
Jamal Murray #27 of the Denver Nuggets looks on against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first quarter of Game Three of the Western Conference Second Round Playoffs at Target Center on May 10, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Nuggets defeated the Timberwolves 117-90. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
Jamal Murray tops the list of guards to avoid at their current cost in 2024-25 fantasy basketball leagues amid concerns about his health ahead of the season. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) (David Berding via Getty Images)

Picking the right players and knowing who to fade are critical factors in forming a competitive fantasy basketball team. Today's column zeroes in on three players who might be appealing but have red flags tied to their draft stock. Whether it be injury or competition-related, let's break down the guards to avoid in fantasy basketball this season.

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The Blue Arrow signed a lucrative max extension to stay with the Nuggets this offseason, and while I'm not mad at it, he's been mid since the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Yes, Murray dealt with late-season ankle and calf injuries, but neither the Nuggets nor Murray shed much light on the severity of either issue. Murray pushed through, and like many, I figured he'd be close to 100% by the time the Paris Olympics rolled around. Spoiler alert: he wasn't. Murray didn't look like himself, averaging a mere 6.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 3.8 dimes in 20.5 minutes per game.

Murray is one of the players I'm most interested in seeing throughout training camp because he looked cooked from the postseason to the Olympics. When healthy, he is one of the best complementary stars in the game. While we know his job is secure, injuries are a recurring theme with Murray and with a fifth-round ADP, I usually pass over him for Immanuel Quickley or Jalen Duren.

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Middleton has turned into one of the riskiest players in fantasy basketball. Over the past two seasons, he's averaged just 15-5-4 in 25 minutes per night. It's not a great look that he's been incapable of seeing a typical starter's workload. More concerning, Middleton had surgeries on both ankles this offseason and hasn't been cleared for 5-on-5 activities yet. Training camp begins on Tuesday, and while he'll participate, the Bucks will exercise caution, bringing Middleton back slowly.

That news is far from ideal in fantasy basketball because, despite his ninth-round ADP, I won't have the patience to wait for Middleton to get back to a 30+ minute type of player. It seems more plausible that he's just not that guy anymore, and it's time to look elsewhere. He's the third option on Milwaukee anyway and much of his value is derived from his rebounds, assists and efficiency. But if his minutes stay in the mid-20s, it's a tough sell for me.

McCollum is coming off an underrated fantasy basketball season, finishing 38th in nine-category leagues and 58th in points leagues. The problem isn't the player — it's the situation. The Pelicans' decision to trade for Dejounte Murray was a bit of a head-scratcher. Still, my immediate reaction was that the combination of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Murray would squeeze McCollum's usage and opportunity. McCollum's seventh-round ADP isn't wrong; I just fail to see how he sustains a 25% usage while sharing the ball with those three high-usage players.

I suggested on Good Word with Goodwill that coming off the bench would be in McCollum's best interest. I'm sticking to that theory because, defensively, it's the best option if the Pelicans want to win. However, I'm anticipating a dip in scoring with so much competition around him, and that'll mean he won't average 20 points per game for the first time in 11 years. You don't have to fade him, but I’d prefer other guard options in the seventh round like Cam Thomas or D’Angelo Russell.

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