Fantasy Football: 2024 Predictions for the most confusing RB situations in the NFL

Pranav Rajaram

Few words scare fantasy football managers more than “running back by committee.” This dreaded depth-chart outcome happens when teams choose to rotate between multiple different running backs in their offense instead of having one bellcow who receives the majority of the volume.

Running back committees are notoriously difficult to navigate in fantasy football, as we often have little information on which players will receive enough volume to be fantasy-relevant. In this article, I’ll be examining some of the more confusing and crowded running back situations in the NFL to get a better idea of players to keep an eye on for the rest of the offseason.

The Dolphins have quite a unique running back situation. Typically, you would expect the player coming off an overall RB2 finish in fantasy football to be the expected lead running back the following year. However, that is not the case, as veteran Raheem Mostert (the RB23) finds himself being taken well behind prospective starter De’Von Achane (RB12) in drafts this season.

Achane was no slouch himself last year — in 11 healthy games, he ran for 7.8 yards per carry and was the RB4 in fantasy points per game. By essentially every advanced running back metric — rushing yards over expected, yards after contact per carry, breakaway run percentage, etc., Achane was the best running back in football, though it is worth mentioning that he was notably less productive once he returned from an MCL sprain that he suffered midseason.

It is expected that Achane will step into a larger role in his second year and become the lead back for the Dolphins, but that is far from confirmed. In fact, Mostert is listed as the starting running back on the Dolphins' unofficial depth chart right now. Achane and Mostert’s performance and usage in training camp will be important to watch to get a clearer idea of how they will split time. I can’t imagine the Dolphins risking injury by giving Achane a full three-down workload because of how valuable he is to their offense. A big portion of Mostert’s production last season came due to his league-leading 21 touchdowns, and I expect him to retain his role as the Dolphins' goal-line running back this year.

Put that all together, and I’m confident that Mostert will see enough volume to be a weekly RB2/FLEX play, making him a value at his current ADP of 66th overall. At 32 years old, Mostert obviously does have health concerns of his own, but he is going late enough in drafts where his upside outweighs the potential floor.

I fully understand the hype behind Achane, as he has the home-run hitting upside that wins leagues. I don’t mind taking him at his ADP of 30th overall, but I would not feel comfortable with him as my RB1 because of his injury concerns and potential lack of volume. I would look to pair Achane with a higher-floor running back in the first two rounds like Jonathan Taylor or Saquon Barkley to guarantee some consistency on your team at the position every week.

The Titans made a notable change to their backfield this season, replacing franchise cornerstone Derrick Henry with former Cowboys running back Tony Pollard. Pollard is coming off a somewhat disappointing season in Dallas, finishing as the RB22 in fantasy points per game despite being taken in the second round of drafts last summer.

Pollard was able to put up over 1,000 rushing yards, but ran for just four yards per carry and was ineffective at the goal line. He finished outside the top 25 among running backs in yards after contact per attempt and breakaway run percentage after finishing top three in both of those metrics in 2022. The fibula fracture that Pollard suffered in January 2023 clearly cost him a great deal of explosiveness, and it remains to be seen if he can recapture the big-play ability that made him so valuable in fantasy.

Pollard joins sophomore Tyjae Spears in the Tennessee backfield. Spears had a quietly productive rookie year, totaling 838 scrimmage yards as the Titans' No. 2 running back behind Derrick Henry. Spears was particularly excellent as a pass-catcher; he saw 70 targets on the season, which ranked ninth among all running backs.

Heading into 2024, I expect Pollard and Spears to be in a standard timeshare, with Pollard as the two-down running back and Spears as the third-down and receiving option. Truth be told, I wouldn’t be aggressively targeting either of them in those roles in fantasy this year. Pollard, who is the RB29 in ADP, feels like he is due for another high-carry, low-efficiency season in a mediocre Titans offense.

Spears, on the other hand, will likely be a fine PPR FLEX play at this ADP of RB32, but I can’t imagine him getting enough volume to have any real ceiling. It is still worth monitoring this situation because one of Pollard or Spears could show out during training camp and become the clear-cut starter, but if they are splitting the workload, I don’t trust Will Levis and the Titans offense enough to support either Pollard or Spears to consistent fantasy production.

The Broncos have perhaps the most convoluted backfield in the NFL. You can reasonably make the case that one of four different guys could be their starter this year — Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Audric Estimé.

Williams is currently being drafted the earliest of the bunch at RB31 and is listed as the starter on the Broncos' unofficial depth chart. He struggled last year in his first season back from a torn ACL, totaling just 774 rushing yards on 217 carries and was clearly missing his trademark tackle-breaking ability.

Perine specialized as the pass-catcher for the Broncos last season, hauling in 50 receptions for 455 yards. Based on reports from Broncos practice, it seems like one of Williams or Perine will get cut before the season starts. I’d put my money on Perine being the one who gets released, given he is five years older than Williams and would save the Broncos an additional $1.8 million.

McLaughlin was largely used as a change-of-pace back last season. He saw about 4-5 carries per game and I expect him to maintain a similar role in 2024. Estimé, a fifth-round rookie, is a 221-pound bowling ball who was a big-play machine at Notre Dame. Rookie running backs taken as late as Estimé typically don’t get much playing time immediately, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he works his way into a more significant role later on in the season.

They cut Perine, and head into the season with Williams as the expected starter and McLaughlin in a change-of-pace role like last year. However, if Williams continues to struggle, I don’t think the Broncos will hesitate to replace him with Estimé, who looks like a prototypical two-down back and red-zone monster.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on Broncos training camp over the next few weeks to see how things will actually work out. As for your fantasy drafts, a good rule of thumb for these confusing running back committees is to just take the player going latest in drafts. This is especially the case for a below-average offense like Denver, as even in the best-case scenario the starter in this offense will not be a weekly top-10 option.

Based on that logic, I anticipate that Estimé, the current RB65 in drafts, will be the player you want from this Denver backfield.

In Dallas, I expect Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle to be in a similar situation as Pollard and Spears, with Elliott as the lead back and Dowdle rotated in. I don’t mind taking Elliott at his ADP of RB36 in that role as he was actually solid with the Patriots last season and could see an increase in touchdown production now that he is back in an elite offense.

In Washington, Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler will likely split time evenly in a budget version of what the Lions have with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. I want nothing to do with either Robinson (RB28) or Ekeler (RB35) this season in fantasy, as I do not expect the Commanders offense to be productive at all with rookie Jayden Daniels under center.

In Cleveland, Nick Chubb’s health status is something to keep an eye on. He was placed on the PUP list ahead of training camp, and might not be ready to go in Week 1. If that is the case, backup Jerome Ford would become a valuable starting running back in fantasy, especially now that Kareem Hunt is no longer on the team.

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