Fantasy Football: Key ADP risers and fallers as we close in on Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season

Tera Roberts
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7)
The Brian Thomas Jr. fantasy hype has been growing — but is it warranted? (Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Narrowing this week’s list of risers and fallers was tough. There were legitimately 15 players I could’ve placed in this article. Cooper Kupp is creeping up draft boards with just a single round now separating him from Puka Nacua. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is surging amid breakout rumors. Even Javonte Williams is on the rise with increased confidence in the Bo Nix-led Broncos offense.

On the opposite side, veteran receivers like Amari Cooper, Tee Higgins and Keenan Allen are falling. Backup or committee backs are taking a hit, including Jaylen Warren, Trey Benson and Ezekiel Elliott. As a whole, drafters seem to be leaning into upside while being weary of over-drafting players who will likely face consistency issues.

For this week’s list of risers and fallers, I’m focusing on a veteran who could finally have his WR1 season, dueling teammates and a surprising faller.

McLaurin feels like the perfect way to kick off this week’s article with the trade of Jahan Dotson to the Philadelphia Eagles. McLaurin’s ADP is naturally rising as many fantasy managers begin to see the value of drafting a WR1 with a major upgrade at quarterback and potential for hyper-targeting.

While Dotson’s exit may not feel like a significant boost to McLaurin, there are multiple factors to consider. Dotson’s stats weren’t mindblowing — 49 receptions on 83 targets for 518 yards and four touchdowns — but Dotson isn’t the only player removed from the offense. When you combine Dotson’s exit with that of Curtis Samuel, there are 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns vacated in an offense that should see an overall increase in competency with Jayden Daniels at the helm. A slight boost in targets plus an increase in touchdown opportunities from a competent quarterback put McLaurin in prime position for a career year.

Terry McLaurin Truthers, it’s our time to shine! We’ve awaited this moment and it’s time to lean in. The Commanders have confidence in Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey, plus the potential of Ben Sinnott who figures to be a factor at some point. However, rather than trying to predict a sleeper pick from this offense, simply lean into the proven veteran. While I won’t be pushing McLaurin into the top 20, a jump to low-end WR2 is more than reasonable.

Who is the Jags’ real WR1?

You know I love a good combo riser/faller and while these players may not have early-round ADPs, their movement is very significant. To be transparent, I supported Kirk over Thomas for most of the offseason. Kirk underwhelmed in the first game of the 2023 season with just one reception for nine yards but after that game, he was the Jags’ most consistent receiver. However, part of that surge may have been tied to Zay Jones’ injury opening up opportunities for Kirk. I expected Kirk to step up and be the clear WR1 as the only incumbent receiver, but Kirk may now be lower in the pecking order.

Preseason sample sizes are small and should be used with caution, but Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis appeared to be the preference in two-receiver sets. If that’s the case, Kirk’s volume could be inconsistent.

Kirk’s ADP is low enough to where you don’t have to worry about him ruining your fantasy season. However, drafting Kirk means passing up players with more potential upside.

Fantasy managers are realizing the upside play here may be Brian Thomas Jr. The Jags drafted Thomas as a one-for-one replacement for Calvin Ridley and Thomas’ starting role is unquestioned at this point. In April’s NFL draft, there was a clear gap between Thomas and the top three receivers of the class. Thomas’ ADP reflects that gap. That gap could be our advantage.

As a result, we have a potential WR1 for Trevor Lawrence in a stable offense being drafted around fellow rookies with less secure offenses or unclear receiving corps like Ladd McConkey or Keon Coleman. Thomas appears to be separating and I’d anticipate his rise to continue through the remainder of the draft season while Kirk continues to fall.

Thomas rising and Kirk falling is the exact movement within my rankings. To be fair to Kirk, I still think he has value as his ADP drops, but he must be drafted behind players like Ridley, Chris Godwin and Diontae Johnson. Kirk can still be a solid fantasy contributor and potential flex play in strong matchups, but Thomas has the true upside and touchdown equity. In this range of ADP, I’d prefer the upside swing versus the safer floor.

Quite frankly, White’s current dip in ADP is baffling to me. His preseason stats are limited but solid. White had 10 carries for 46 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry with one rushing touchdown and a long run of 17 yards. Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube have been underwhelming and don’t appear to be a threat to White’s workload. This is not a situation like that of D’Andre Swift, whose ADP is slightly falling because Khalil Herbert has looked fantastic this preseason. White has done nothing wrong and his backups haven’t been impressive.

White’s fall doesn’t appear to be in favor of other players or other positions being pushed up. He’s simply falling independent in the eyes of current drafters. I understand the concern because White’s backup is the poster child for “beware of small sample sizes.” Mattison was the 2023 version of White, getting the RB1 role after his team moved on from their incumbent superstar. That fear makes drafters hesitant to invest in White and his ADP reflects it.

White’s ADP is appropriate. I don’t advocate over-drafting him, but he’s in a low-risk range. I speculate that White’s drop in ADP is directly tied to a lack of confidence in the Raiders as a whole due to a lack of enthusiasm around the quarterback situation. I won’t lie to you, I don’t expect a ton of points from the Raiders, but all is not lost for White.

White can still benefit from the Raiders being a run-heavy offense with a quarterback who is decent enough to keep defenses honest due to the talent of the pass catchers around him. The Raiders defense is strong and they will not be scripted out of games, meaning White won’t exit the game because the Raiders are forced to abandon the run. Anticipate low-scoring games with strong volume on the ground and adequate goal-line opportunities — a fine combination for a strong RB2.

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