Heisman Watch: No, Arch Manning isn't a serious Heisman contender despite what his odds suggest
Arch Manning’s Heisman odds are preposterously out of line with his actual chances to win the award.
Manning is the No. 7 favorite at BetMGM after he skyrocketed up the board in his relief appearance in Week 3. After Quinn Ewers left the blowout win vs. UTSA with a strained abdomen, Manning threw four TD passes and ran for another.
It seems likely he’ll start in place of Ewers this week against Louisiana-Monroe. Ewers is questionable, according to coach Steve Sarkisian, but you can’t blame Texas for playing it safe. The Longhorns are 44.5-point favorites over the Warhawks.
Even if Manning starts and plays spectacularly again against ULM, it’s highly unlikely he’ll continue as Texas’ starting quarterback when Ewers is ready to play. The senior has been great so far this season and entered the UTSA game as the early season favorite to win the Heisman after Texas’ win over Michigan.
If Ewers only misses the ULM game, it’s very possible he’ll regain that favorite status in short order. He’s not currently listed given the uncertain nature of the injury, but if he comes back in time for SEC play and Texas continues to be the No. 1 team in the country, you’ll see Ewers’ name at the top of the board.
Much like Colorado has been for bettors on a weekly basis since Deion Sanders arrived in 2023, Manning’s climb up the Heisman odds is more about name recognition for casual bettors than anything else. Action on Manning’s chances prompted the odds shift, and it’s a shift that has casual bettors’ fingerprints all over it.
If you’re looking to wade into the Heisman market or just simply use the odds as a guide to where the race currently stands, you’d be well-advised to ignore Manning and his low odds right now. There’s nothing that suggests this movement is anything other than a meme stock.
Here are four other players who also had exceptional Week 3 performances. They all have much better chances to win the Heisman.
Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter
vs. Baylor in Week 4
As Yahoo Sports’ Dan Wetzel laid out earlier this week, the case for Hunter’s Heisman candidacy is stronger than his BetMGM odds suggest. As Manning sits at +1600, Hunter is at +3500 playing both cornerback and wide receiver at an extremely high level and playing over 100 snaps a game.
The former five-star recruit is the Buffaloes’ leading receiver with 30 catches for 342 yards and five touchdowns. No other Colorado player has more than 14 catches or three touchdown grabs. He’s also posted 11 tackles, two passes defensed and an incredible interception against Colorado State in Week 3.
It’s reasonable to think that Hunter’s production could slow down as the season goes on, especially as Colorado plays Big 12 games the rest of the way. But if he continues to cover teams’ top receivers and also be Colorado’s clear No. 1 target, he should undoubtedly be a Heisman candidate even if the Buffaloes fail to make a bowl game.
Miami QB Cam Ward
at South Florida in Week 4
Ward has taken over as the betting favorite for the Heisman following his performance against Ball State. Ward was 19-of-28 passing for 346 yards and five touchdowns for the No. 10 Hurricanes in their 62-0 blowout win over the Cardinals. He’ll face a tougher test this week against South Florida, a team that was within a couple points of Alabama in the fourth quarter before the Tide broke open their Week 2 matchup.
Ward is completing 73% of his passes so far this season and has thrown 11 TDs to just one interception along with one rushing touchdown. His chances of winning the Heisman likely hinge on Miami’s contention in the ACC. If the Hurricanes really are the best team in the conference like they have shown they can be through three weeks, then Ward will be a central figure in the Heisman race all season long.
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava
at No. 15 Oklahoma in Week 4
Iamaleava didn’t need to do much in Tennessee’s 71-0 win over Kent State in Week 3. In fact, he had a pretty light night. He was 10-of-16 passing for 173 yards and a score while also rushing for 31 yards on five carries. The Vols were up 37-0 at the end of the first quarter and had plenty of opportunities for players lower on the depth chart to get game reps across the final 30 minutes.
Iamaleava is currently the No. 4 favorite at BetMGM and could easily overtake Ward as the top favorite with a big game in Week 4. No. 6 Tennessee at No. 15 Oklahoma is the game of the week in college football as coach Josh Heupel visits the school he played at for the first time as a head coach.
Alabama QB Jalen Milroe
Off in Week 4
Milroe is the only player to appear in the first two editions of Heisman Watch this season and he’s here after scoring five touchdowns against Wisconsin. Milroe threw for three scores and rushed for two others as Alabama cruised to an easy 32-point win.
Milroe is completing 67% of his passes this season and has thrown eight touchdowns without an interception. He’s also rushed for 156 yards and six scores. No player is responsible for more TDs this season than Milroe so far. Both Alabama and Georgia are off in Week 4 as they prepare for their massive matchup in Week 5.
