Hurricane center now tracking 5 systems that could become tropical depression

The National Hurricane Center got even busier Saturday now looking at five weather systems with potential to form into the year’s next tropical depression or storm including one that will bring rain as it moves across South Florida this weekend.

If any of the systems grow to named strength status, they could become Tropical Storm Emily with Tropical Storm Franklin, Tropical Storm Gert and Tropical Storm Harold and Tropical Storm Idalia next in line.

In its 2 p.m. tropical update, the NHC said the system closest to the state is now just an area of disturbed weather near the northwest and central Bahamas, but its path will drag across the peninsula and into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico where it’s expected to form into a broad area of low pressure by early next week.

Its local effects won’t be too harsh with gusts of only about 25 mph expected by Sunday but intermittent rounds of showers and thunderstorms, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

“Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week,” NHC forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 10% chance to form into a tropical system within two days and 50% chance to develop within a week.

Odds increased since Friday for the next closest system, a tropical wave just east of the Windward Islands of the Caribbean that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Some gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form during the early and middle parts of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said. “Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Windward Islands during the next couple of days.”

The NHC gives it a 40% chance to form in the next two days, and 60% in the next seven.

In the central tropical Atlantic, chances area about even for a system the NHC has been tracking all week.

The area of low pressure located about halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles still has disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center.

“While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, a short-lived tropical depression could form in the next day or so while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “After that time, additional development is not anticipated since
upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable.”

The NHC gives it a 50% chance to for in the next two days, and 50% in the next seven.

The most likely storm to form, though, is in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

The broad area of low pressure with shower and thunderstorm activity is several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.

“Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development of this system, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said. “By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected.”

The NHC gives it a 70% chance to form in the next two days and 70% chance within the next seven.

The fifth and newest tracked storm is even farther away, a tropical wave near the western coast of Africa that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives is a 20% chance to form in the next seven days.

Meanwhile, in the tropical eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary continues to barrel toward Baja Mexico and is expected to bring heavy rains potentially still as a tropical storm by Monday to the southwestern United States.

In its 2 p.m. advisory, the NHC puts the center of what has diminished now to barely a Category 3 hurricane about 710 miles south-southeast of San Diego and 350 miles south-southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico with 115 mph sustained winds moving north-northwest at 16 mph. It has hurricane-force winds extending out 50 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extending out 265 miles.

A tropical storm warning is now in place in the U.S. for the California-Mexico border to Point Mugu north of Los Angeles as well as Catalina Island while hurricane and tropical storm warnings and watches remain in place for Baja Mexico and parts of mainland Mexico.

“Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected across the Southwestern United States, peaking on Sunday, and possibly lasting through Monday,” the NHC said. “Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada.”

The rainfall is expected to create dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding.

The Pacific has been busier so far this season with eight named storms, but the Atlantic could catch up soon as systems have warmer waters that could spur development.

The still face competition with increased Saharan dust that has continued to blow off the coast of Africa and spread out westward along the storms’ paths within the last week. That has contributed to a lull in recent storm formation. The NHC has not tracked a named storm in the Atlantic basin since July 24 when Hurricane Don dissipated.

Still, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which has so far seen four named storms including a lone Category 1 hurricane, is predicted to be an above-normal season, according to updated forecasts last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of the season runs from mid-August to mid-October when waters are the warmest providing fuel for tropical formation.

The NHC’s latest forecast for the year shifted upward so it now predicts 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 would grow to hurricane strength, and two to five of those becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.