MLB playoffs 2024: Tarik Skubal delivers to lead Tigers to upset of Astros in Game 1 of AL wild-card series

Riding the wave of an improbable September surge that secured the franchise’s first postseason berth in a decade, the Detroit Tigers collected yet another memorable victory Tuesday, with a 3-1 win over the Houston Astros in Game 1 of the American League Wild-Card Series.

The Tigers, with a roster loaded with rookies who barely knew what it meant to still be playing at this point in the calendar, appeared to be substantial underdogs as they arrived in Houston to face a team that has become synonymous with postseason baseball. Yet in this laughably lopsided matchup in terms of October experience, ace left-hander Tarik Skubal proved to be the ultimate equalizer for Detroit.

Houston’s roster boasted not only a boatload more playoff experience — the Astros’ wild-card roster features a staggering 581 combined career postseason games, compared to just 12 on Detroit’s — but also a far more compelling collection of statistical standouts on both sides of the ball. On paper, the Astros had nearly every edge, with one glaring exception: Skubal. And so, it was on the 27-year-old southpaw to deliver the goods in his first career playoff start.

And that he did. Skubal sliced and diced through some of the best bats in the American League with exceptional command of his overwhelming four-pitch mix, single-handedly expediting Detroit toward the finish line of victory with each passing frame.

This was exactly what it was supposed to look like for the Tigers: their unparalleled ace living up to the hype when the team needed him most. And after Skubal swiftly sent down the top of Houston’s order on just five pitches in the bottom of the first, the Tigers’ bats came alive in the top of the second. Astros starter Framber Valdez was marvelous in the second half of the regular season and was making his 16th career playoff start, but his command looked shaky from the get-go Tuesday, and the Tigers pounced.

Jake Rogers — a .197 hitter in the regular season who earned the Tigers’ starting catcher job on the strength of his defense — struck first. On a 3-0 pitch with runners on the corners, the Tigers’ backstop opted not to wait and see if a struggling Valdez would walk him and instead took matters into his own hands, smashing a single up the middle to give Detroit a 1-0 lead. Remarkably, the 29-year-old Rogers is Detroit’s longest-tenured player, having made his MLB debut in 2019, just two years after the Tigers acquired him from — that’s right — Houston as part of the blockbuster deal for Justin Verlander at the 2017 trade deadline.

Next came Trey Sweeney. The rookie shortstop pounced on a 1-0 sinker from Valdez to drive in another run. For all the talk about Detroit being sellers this July, here was a player the Tigers acquired in the deal that sent Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, making an instant impact in a postseason game.

Then it was Matt Vierling’s turn. As the lone player on Detroit’s roster with postseason experience, Vierling had some familiarity with Valdez, having faced him in Game 6 of the 2022 World Series with Philadelphia. He sizzled a two-strike changeup into center field to make it 3-0 Detroit.

An early, three-run lead in Houston against this Astros lineup isn’t an especially comfy cushion under most circumstances. But with Skubal on the mound, Detroit appeared firmly in control.

There weren’t many moments of concern for the ace lefty over the course of his masterful outing. A comebacker off the bat of Yainer Diaz in the second caromed off Skubal’s glove hand, but he was able to recover and record the out, and he quickly assured his manager not to worry before calmly completing the remainder of the frame.

The Astros then made Skubal sweat with some traffic on the bases during a 29-pitch fourth inning, but he responded emphatically, with strikeouts of Jeremy Peña and Victor Caratini, both with his dastardly changeup. He appeared to tweak his back after a 100 mph fastball to Alex Bregman in the sixth, but Skubal again sent Hinch and head athletic trainer Ryne Eubanks back to the dugout before striking Diaz out on a 99 mph heater to end the frame.

"He's intense, but he's under control," Hinch said afterward. "He's competitive, but he's a thinking man's pitcher. He's got weapons. He's the complete package of a guy that you want anchoring a staff."

That fastball to send Diaz back to the dugout turned out to be Skubal’s final pitch of the day — Hinch revealed postgame that Skubal was dealing with cramps — and Hinch called on his bullpen to cover the final three frames. Skubal’s final line in his first career playoff start is a fitting follow-up to an outstanding regular season that will soon earn him the AL Cy Young Award: six innings, four hits allowed, one walk, and six strikeouts. Of his 88 pitches, an incredible 73% of them went for strikes.

"You see him screaming off the mound, as competitive as he is," Hinch continued. "We see that every day, and I'm glad the baseball world gets to see that on the biggest stage of the year so far because it's authentic, and it's a real impact to our club."

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With several standout options at Hinch’s disposal, it wasn’t readily apparent what order Detroit’s top relief arms would be deployed over the final three innings. Will Vest emerged first and was brilliant, striking out four of the five batters he faced and leaving Detroit with just five outs left when he departed in the eighth in favor of Tyler Holton. The lefty Holton got Kyle Tucker to ground out to conclude the eighth inning, setting the stage for Jason Foley to lock down the ninth with the three-run lead still intact.

Then the plan started to go awry. Yordan Alvarez, even in his hobbled form as he continues to manage a knee sprain, led off with a booming double to left field, another startling reminder of his spectacular opposite-field power. Bregman followed with an infield single, then Diaz poked a single to right to score Houston’s first run of the game. The Astros had life, and the volume at Minute Maid Park began to build.

After a Peña bunt to move Bregman and Diaz into scoring position, Foley departed. In came righty Beau Brieske for yet another playoff debut for Detroit. Brieske is a former 26th-round pick who has pitched in myriad roles for the Tigers this season, including 12 games as an opener. This game was his to finish.

Caratini lofted a shallow line drive to left field for the second out. With one out left, Brieske turned up the heat against Chas McCormick in an effort to slam the door, but to no avail. McCormick fouled off two 100.1 mph heaters — the two hardest pitches of Brieske’s career — and worked a walk to load the bases for Jason Heyward.

Heyward, a late-August addition for Houston following his release from the Dodgers, delivered some big swings for the Astros in the weeks since he joined the club. And for a split-second, it seemed like he had delivered another. But in a blink, the line drive ripped by Heyward to the right side arrived in first baseman Spencer Torkelson’s glove for the third out, and the game was over.

After smooth sailing with Skubal for six innings, it got a little dicey at the end. But as they have so many times over the past six weeks, the Tigers found a way to win.

For Houston, Tuesday marked a sixth consecutive home postseason loss, dating back to the Astros’ dropping all four games against Texas in last year’s ALCS and Game 3 of the ALDS against Minnesota. It’s a disconcerting trend that will need to be reversed Wednesday if the Astros are going to extend their season another day — not to mention keep alive the dream of reaching the ALCS for an eighth consecutive October.

In Game 2, the Astros will hand the ball to Hunter Brown, the breakout right-hander with a 2.32 ERA over his last 13 starts entering October — a stellar option, considering the stakes. As for the Tigers? It’s expected to be Holton — yes, the same pitcher who came in to face Tucker in the eighth inning of Tuesday’s game. Because of course it will be!

Hinch is entirely self-aware of the degree to which his team’s pitching strategy diverges from the norm, and he has no problem admitting it. As he quipped Monday, the plan on the mound for Detroit was, “Tarik Skubal tomorrow and pitching chaos the rest of the way — which is kind of how it’s been the last two months."

Skubal did his part; that was the first step. The Tigers needing to use their four best bullpen arms to secure Game 1 might complicate how the so-called “chaos” is deployed from here, but that’s a trade-off Hinch and Co. will happily take. Hinch and his squad are just one win away from eliminating his former employer and advancing to the ALDS, where the AL Central rival Guardians await. That next win is sure to require a healthy dose of mixing and matching on the mound, but as Hinch noted, that’s hardly anything new.

Besides, that’s a Wednesday problem. For now, everything has gone according to plan — something teams can rarely say this time of year. Such is the luxury of having a pitcher such as Skubal on your side.