NFL 2024 season predictions: can the Kansas City Chiefs pull off an unprecedented three-peat?

This will be the year of ...

Who else? Patrick Mahomes, pretty much like he has been the last five seasons, will be the NFL’s main focal point. Mahomes, entering his eighth NFL season, has led the Chiefs to three Super Bowl victories and another AFC title, and he won’t turn 29 until next month. He is prolific, intelligent, inventive – and, as important, durable. Dave Caldwell

Caleb Williams. The rookie quarterback is walking into a unique situation. Never has such a talented No 1 overall pick stepped onto a roster with such a strong supporting cast – and immediate playoff expectations. Oliver Connolly

Jim Harbaugh’s magic fairy dust. Harbaugh took a storied franchise in San Francisco down on its luck and instantly led them to an NFC Championship Game berth. These Chargers have way more demons, plus a few key departures, but Harbaugh enters the building with a high-upside quarterback in Justin Herbert and a revamped offensive line. Watch out for rookie RT Joe Alt. But mostly watch out for Harbaugh’s culture-altering voo-doo. Melissa Jacobs

The will-they-or-won’t-they? Whether it is if Travis Kelce will drop to one knee for Taylor Swift or if Kansas City can earn a fabled three-peat, the Chiefs will be under the brightest spotlight the sport has seen. If they do bag the hat-trick then a crossover to the dynastic dark side al la Tom Brady’s Patriots feels likely. Graham Searles

Best team that won’t make the playoffs

The same old New York Jets, for the 14th straight season. The Jets have a rapacious defense, and running back Breece Hall and receiver Garrett Wilson complement the wifty 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is returning from a torn achilles. The Jets are even returning to those cool New York Sack Exchange-era uniforms. But they still are the Jets. Even if Rodgers stands tall, or upright, they will find ways to miss out. DC

No team has as high a ceiling or as low a floor as the Indianapolis Colts. In Anthony Richardson, they have an uber-talented quarterback, but one with a ton of lingering questions: Can he stay healthy for a full season? Can he play consistently from the pocket? Is he accurate enough for the NFL? The talent is there for the Colts to compete in the South – they have a well-oiled offensive line and a ferocious defensive line. But they may be a year away. OC

Chicago Bears. After decades of blasé action, the Bears are finally fun to watch. They’re already renaming one of the airports after Caleb Williams given his stellar preseason. And he has fun shiny toys like Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and DeAndre Swift, all under the eye of respected playcaller Shane Waldron. The defense, especially the secondary, improved its personnel. But … expect a few growing pains for Williams. The Bears will be oh close with 10 or 11 wins. If only they were in any other division. MJ

The Buffalo Bills almost missed out last year and the fade may continue to push them out of contention. The offense is weaker without a blue-chip receiver and only surefire targets at tight end to maximize Josh Allen’s abilities. GS

The most underrated team this year is ...

The Philadelphia Eagles lost six of their last seven games in 2023 (then a real dud of a playoff game) a year after they went to the Super Bowl. Coach Nick Sirianni kept his job, but he had to hire new coordinators and relinquish some of his responsibilities. The Eagles appear to be the popular media choice to bomb out again this season, but they still have that damn good O line (minus Jason Kelce) and the best receivers in the league. Saquon Barkley, the former Giants’ running back, is a huge addition. DC

How about the Tennessee Titans? There are fair questions about whether splurging in free agency was the right long-term move, but they’ve significantly upgraded their defense and put enough pieces around Will Levis – at receiver, running back and along the offensive line – to figure out if they have anything in the second year QB. The AFC South may quietly be the best division in football, which could ding Tennessee’s win-loss record. But they’ll be competitive. OC

The Jacksonville Jaguars were 8-3 last season before Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 13. He wasn’t the same after and the Jags finished 9-8. Lawrence like his old self this preseason. If the offensive line improves and the defensive playmaker make plays, the Jags could easily make a surprise playoff run MJ

The LA Chargers hired a real football guy in Jim Harbaugh to turn them into a hard-nosed winning machine. An influx of rookie and veteran talent to replace the dead wood could kickstart a great season. GS

One bold prediction ...

Super Bowl LIX will be a rematch of Super Bowl LVIII, in which the Chiefs beat the 49ers in overtime. An instant Supe rematch has not happened in 30 years, when the Cowboys beat the Bills. The Chiefs still have Mahomes and Andy Reid, and the Niners were the best team in the NFC last year (and might have been the best overall team in the NFC in each of the two years before that). It is hard to see either team stumbling. DC

Deshaun Watson will be benched by week six. There are still 92m reasons why Watson will be the Browns starter this year and next season, but few of them have to do with football. The Watson of today is a shadow of his former self. At one point, Watson was the best quarterback in the league at dealing with pressure: the measure that separates the good from the great. It was his cheat code. He didn’t just beat pressure, he crushed it. In Cleveland, that’s crumbled away. He’s been one of the three worst QBs in the league with the pass rush closing in each of the past two seasons. With Jameis Winston signed as a backup and jobs on the line, Cleveland have a viable plan if Watson continues to falter. OC

Taylor Swift finally plays the Super Bowl half-time show. The Eras Tour ends in December, and let’s face it, she’s going to be at the Super Bowl, anyhow. MJ

The bloom finally falls from the rose for Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. A first losing season since taking charge in 2007 beckons with Russell Wilson running the show and Justin Fields his unconvincing understudy. It is a testament to Tomlin’s abilities that this still seems like a slight against the coach when he has little outside of some defensive pieces to work with. GS

Johnny Manziel disaster waiting to happen department ...

A frontrunner has emerged already in this sad derby, through no fault of his own. JJ McCarthy, the quarterback who propelled the Michigan Wolverines to the national collegiate title last season, tore the meniscus in his right knee in camp and will be lost for his rookie NFL season. The Vikings chose him 10th overall. The Vikings are likely to start darn old Sam Darnold, ex-Jets bust. DC

How ‘bout them frugal Cowboys? Dallas will win plenty of games, as they always do. But there might not be a worse vibes team entering the year. Coach Mike McCarthy, quarterback Dak Prescott and all-everything menace Micah Parsons all have contract questions looming over their heads. And outside of Parsons, the Dallas defense is lacking in both talent and structure, despite bringing in Mike Zimmer to run the show. The only addition this offseason was bringing in a fossilized Eric Kendricks to a group that slipped to 19th in EPA/play at the end of last season. If things get off to a rocky start, the finger-pointing will begin early. OC

Buffalo’s fall. The Bills are heavy favorites to win the NFC East, largely on the supreme talent of Josh Allen. But things feel fragile in Buffalo. The roster turnover was much deeper than Stefon Diggs. Linebacker Matt Milano’s bicep tear is a big blow. The Bills’ have weathered a lot during their little reign. A mid-season meltdown wouldn’t surprise me. MJ

New England. The waters could get choppy very quickly with a green head coach, a fanbase hungry for a new era of success and a rookie quarterback in Drake Maye being tentatively prepared as the face of the franchise. Jerod Mayo has to thread the needle just right while following one of the greatest head coaches in the NFL. No pressure. GS

MVP

Mahomes had what was considered to be an off-year, leading the Chiefs to a 10-6 record as a starter (woeful for him) and finishing seventh in the MVP voting (dismal for him). He will collect his third MVP award this year because he is at the pinnacle of his career and he still can lead the Chiefs to those inexplicable comeback victories. He already has a spot on the list of the best NFL quarterbacks ever, but Mahomes very well could edge into the Tom Brady Stratosphere this season. DC

The Chiefs have a fairly easy schedule this year, and they should waltz through a weak AFC West. With a rejuvenated offense, a 14-win season is within reach. That should be enough for Mahomes to clinch his third MVP award. OC

CJ Stroud. What not to love about Stroud? He’s poised, has elite arm talent, can improvise with the best of ‘em, and is clutch. Now that Texans have added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to the talented receiver duo of Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and resigned Dalton Schultz, the skies the limit. The Texans do face a slate of tough non-division defenses but luckily Stroud gets all those AFC South games for Stroud to feast. MJ

A second division title for the Houston Texans and 30-plus touchdowns can keep CJ Stroud rising from last season’s offensive rookie of the year to the pinnacle of the league. GS

Rookie of the year

Many awesome things are expected of Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall draft pick. He won’t have to do everything by himself, either, with the Bears acquiring receiver Keenan Allen, drafting Oregon receiver Rome Odunze and signing running back D’Andre Swift, who had a rebound year with the Eagles. The Bears still have four games against the Lions and Packers, though. DC

If he lives up to the billing, it will be Caleb Williams. But that’s no fun. So let’s go with Laiatu Latu, the top rookie defender. Four of the last five defensive rookies of the year have been edge rushers, largely because they wrack up counting metrics. Latu is playing on a killer defensive line and could touch double-digit sacks in his debut campaign. OC

Jayden Daniels. Daniels has looked great in the preseason and should be able to put up big numbers in the Commanders offense (ahem, playing from behind). Caleb Williams will be a close second. Malik Nabers should be in the mix as well but will be hampered by his position and quarterback. MJ

Caleb Williams has hype, the talent and the weapons in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen to make the huge splash the Chicago Bears expect him to make. GS

AFC East champ

The Bills should win this division because they have the indefatigable quarterback Josh Allen, but the Jets and Dolphins should offer much stiffer challenges. Miami will get in the playoffs; New York won’t. New England will bring up the rear in the team’s first season since 1999 without that scowling guy in the hooded sweatshirt on the sidelines. DC

The Dolphins. This is more a reflection of the Bills than a belief in the Dolphins. Buffalo seemingly always figure it out on defense, but for the first time in the Sean McDermott era, they’re lacking ability and depth at linebacker and safety. If the defense falls from good to average, the pressure will be on an undercooked offense to be one of the three best in the league. OC

The Jets. Fine, I’ll bite. The sensational defense kept them respectable last year when the injury bug struck the offense. Now add a healthy Breece Hall, Aaron Rodgers, and skies the limit. Miami should be a fun, explosive watch but the Bradley Chubb injury is concerning. MJ

A case can be made for Miami, New York or Buffalo but the Dolphins should overtake the Bills with their electric offensive talents that can torch any defense if the mercury stays above freezing. GS

AFC North champ

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson should again be sensational in the regular season this year. The postseason is, of course, another deal. Jackson, the NFL’s MVP last season, has won only two of six playoff starts. The Chiefs took the Ravens out in Baltimore last year. All Jackson has left to accomplish is a deep playoff run. DC

The Ravens were a juggernaut last season. But there are some concerns hidden beneath the surface this year: a brittle offensive line; and a new, first-time defensive coordinator. But there should still be too much star power on both sides of the ball for any potential drop-off to cost them the division. OC

Baltimore Ravens. To me, this is a toss-up between the Ravens and Bengals. But the Ravens have the edge thanks to their explosive offensive including the two-tight end sets they get to run with Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews. Even with a healthy Joe Burrow, there’s too much lingering contract drama that threatens to permeate. MJ

Joe Burrow is back, blonde and just begging to reclaim the crown for the Bengals. The freedom of finally being healthy after a litany of injuries make Cincinnati a must watch this year. GS

AFC South champ

The Texans won’t surprise anyone this year, after their unlikely late surge to the division title last year under first-year coach DeMeco Ryans and first-year quarterback Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV. They should win the division again, especially if quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars plummet from the skies, as they did last year. DC

The Texans. Stroud (rightly) garnered all the attention last season. This year, Houston’s defense will rise to match Stroud and the offense. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are a scary pass-rush tandem and the team made crucial upgrades at linebacker. OC

The Texans are poised to take the next step thanks to their ridiculous offensive talent. Both Jacksonville and Indy should be mix especially Indianapolis if Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. MJ

The Colts and Titans are still a work in progress while Jacksonville are unlikely to improve after holding on to one-hit wonder head coach, Doug Pederson. The Texans have it locked up. GS

AFC West champ

The Chiefs have all but retired this competition, having won the last eight division titles. No need to worry about them not extending the run. Their sternest challenge will probably come from the Los Angeles Chargers, who are coached by Jim Harbaugh, the former Michigan coach. His 49ers teams made three NFC title games, plus a Super Bowl. DC

Everywhere Jim Harbaugh goes, he wins games. The idea of pairing him with Justin Herbert is tantalizing. But have you taken a look through the rest of the Chargers roster? It’s barren. Outside the offensive line, the team is either slow or old. Even Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, big-name stars, are declining. Bosa has dealt with significant injuries. And Mack’s 17-sack 2023 season was something of a mirage. Of those 17, six were against Aidan O’Connell in his NFL debut, two came Zach Wilson’s eight-sack meltdown and two more were against Bailey Zappe. Harbaugh needs time to purge the roster. Until then, it’s the Chiefs’ division. OC

Kansas City. They’ve won the division eight years running. They have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Need I say more? Even a couple of early season losses wouldn’t be cause for panic. The Chiefs are a machine. I do believe the Chargers will steal one of the Matchups vs. Kansas City and sneak into the playoffs. MJ

The Kansas City Chiefs. GS

NFC East champ

If the Eagles really do fall apart this season, the Cowboys should scoop up the title. The Commanders are renovating under new coach Dan Quinn, and the Giants are likely to scuffle again under Brian Daboll. But Dallas’s playoff loss at home to Green Bay was so dismal that coach Mike McCarthy might become a short-timer – if he is not already. DC

The Eagles. Philly have the most complete roster in the division – perhaps the whole conference – and should be able to roll to five division wins. There’s some cause to pause: there’s still a lingering hangover in the building from last season’s debacle. But a new staff around head coach Nick Sirianni should be enough to extract the most out of a gifted roster. OC

Dallas or Philly? Philly or Dallas? The Eagles have the edge thanks to the additions of Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio and the mathematical improbability of a late-season meltdown as epic as last year’s. The Cowboys didn’t make enough personnel moves in the offseason to feel like they’re ready to seize the division. MJ

New York’s persistence with Daniel Jones at quarterback and a lack of talent in Washington leave the usual suspects to duke it out. The Eagles edge an unbalanced Dallas roster. GS

NFC North champ

Dan Campbell, the rabid head coach and advocate of kneecap biting, made the long-beleaguered Lions so much fun to follow all the way to the NFC Championship Game last year. The Lions will be gnarly again, but watch the Pack: quarterback Jordan Love and Green Bay won six of their last eight, then a playoff game in Dallas. DC

Growth is not always linear, but the Packers’ roster of young pups rounded into shape over the back-half of last season. From Week 10 onwards, they finished first in the league in EPA/play on offense, a measure of down-to-down effectiveness. The defense upgraded in the secondary this offseason and that should filter through the rest of what has been an unreliable unit. One bonus prediction: three NFC North teams win 10 games. OC

Dan Campbell has been a godsend. There are plenty of stars of offense. But it’s the insane defensive line starring Aidan Hutchinson and a (hopefully healthy soon) DJ Reader that will catapult the Lions to the division title and a deep playoff run. The Packers will be a major challenger. Expect Chicago to make some noise as well. MJ

A momentous battle could be in the making between Detroit and Green Bay. Josh Jacobs joining the Packers has shown their intent, however the Lions are giving older, irritating brother vibes: a step ahead in their development; better, faster, etc. Dan Campbell will be eyeing the No 1 seed. GS

NFC South champ

NFL rules dictate that one team has to win this division. OK, it won’t be the Panthers. The Falcons are intriguing, or puzzling, because they picked up not one but two quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins and rookie Michael Penix Jr. But the Buccaneers should repeat because Baker Mayfield, their resurgent quarterback, will simply make it happen, as he does. DC

Nine wins should be enough to clinch the division. The Falcons made the splashy moves this offseason, but they will be bedding in a new quarterback (coming off an achilles tear), head coach, defensive coordinator, offensive coordinator and several key defensive additions. By default, it’s the Buccaneers. OC

Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers extended left tackle Tristin Wirfs and have Baker Mayfield under center That’s enough to take this division. MJ

I am buying what the Falcons are selling. Kirk Cousins can unlock Kyle Pitts and Drake London’s massive potential. There will be bumps in the road though far fewer than those their rivals will endure. GS

NFC West champ

The Rams will hang with San Francisco though they don’t have a coach like Kyle Shanahan (or a superb running back like the relentless and punishing Christian McCaffrey). The 49ers will roll to the division title, but Rams coach Sean McVay and 36-year-old quarterback Matthew Stafford will find a way to earn a home playoff game. DC

It’s hard not to buy the Seahawks’ hype. Their offense will be explosive, if the offensive line can hold up. Mike Macdonald will be able to scotch-tape together an effective defense. It will be a close race, but the 49ers have more firepower and should sneak over the line. OC

The 49ers. The up-and-down roster talent jumps off the page. Kyle Shanahan is more than proven as a masterful regular-season coach. But it’s the Trent Williams signing the really tips the scales. It’s hard to see the Rams having a repeat of last year’s surprise with no Aaron Donald around. Arizona promise to be a fun watch but still a few players away. MJ

The Seahawks and Rams will be in the mix for the wildcard while putting up a stiffer test for the 49ers but Kyle Shanahan has kept his all-stars together, another dominant season is in motion. GS

AFC wildcard teams

Dolphins, Jaguars, Chargers DC

Bills, Bengals, Jaguars OC

Bengals, Chargers, Dolphins MJ

Ravens, Jets, Chargers GS

NFC wildcard teams

Cowboys, Lions, Rams DC

Lions, Seahawks, Bears OC

Packers, Cowboys. Rams MJ

Rams, Packers, Dallas GS

AFC championship game

Kansas City over Baltimore DC

Kansas City over Houston OC

Kansas City over Houston MJ

Houston over Kansas City GS

NFC championship game

San Francisco over Green Bay DC

Green Bay over Philadelphia OC

Detroit over San Francisco MJ

Detroit over Green Bay GS

Super Bowl LIX winner

Three teams have played in three straight Super Bowls: the 1971-73 Dolphins, the 1990-93 Bills (who infamously lost all four) and the 2016-18 Patriots. But none has won three straight. Place a goal in front of Mahomes, and he will find a way to attain it. The Chiefs were clearly less than stellar in the regular season last year, but they pulled out three extremely tough playoff victories to win it all again. Bet against Patrick Mahomes. I won’t. Kansas City 35, San Francisco 28, OT. DC

It feels silly to pick against the Chiefs. They are stronger this year than in the past two seasons. Heck, this may be the best team the Mahomes-Reid-Spagnuolo trifecta have rolled out yet. But there’s no fun in picking a three-peat. Let’s go with the Packers. It would be hard for Green Bay’s defense to be as uninspired as it has been the last three years. They’ve overhauled their safety room, which should make them as flexible and dynamic as any defense in the league. And there is still hope that the some of the six (!) first-round picks on defense outside Rashan Gary can become genuine difference-makers. If the defense can keep playoff games tight, Jordan Love and the offense can close. Green Bay 28, Chiefs 24. OC

The Lions will try to rattle the Chiefs with some trickery and aggressive playcalling. But in the end as long as Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and whoever they add on a one-year Super Bowl or bust deal are on the field, the Chiefs win. Again. MJ

We will drink from the unadulterated delirium of a Super Bowl consisting of two fanbases never to have seen their team in the big game. Campbell’s Lions would be more than worthy winners but fall to a Texans team pushed over the line by the defense. A unit led by defensive rookie of the year Will Anderson and able to match the great strides Stroud makes with a beefed up and healthy receiving crew. GS