UFC 306: Betting odds are shifting for Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili

On Sept. 14, the UFC brings the action to Sphere in Las Vegas for a special themed pay-per-view event that may wind up breaking the bank for the sake of a memorable show.

UFC 306, also known as “Riyadh Season Noche UFC,” is being billed as a card to celebrate Mexican Independence. The Riyadh part is there to indicate that it’s being sponsored by Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority, since nothing makes more sense than a Mexican Independence Day event … paid for by Saudi Arabia … going down in Las Vegas.

Betting odds have seen a notable shift in the UFC 306 headliner, with UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley and challenger Merab Dvalishvili now essentially even. O’Malley opened as the underdog here, despite being the reigning champ, but as money has come in on the popular 135-pounder the odds have tightened.

Here’s a full look at UFC 306 betting odds, beginning with the main event:

Sean O’Malley (-110) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (-110)

O’Malley’s success keeps surprising people who see the colorful hair and lanky frame and refuse to believe that this guy could really be that good at fighting. Dvalishvili presents a tricky stylistic matchup for him, since he’s primarily a wrestler who’s found a lot of success weaponizing his bottomless cardio and frantic pace.

O’Malley will want to keep this standing, and if he can shut down a couple takedown attempts early his chances at victory should go way up. Dvalishvili has been hinting that he might try to stand and strike with the champ, but that’s most likely just gamesmanship since his boxing game does have some sizable holes when it’s being used for any purpose other than setting up a takedown.

Alexa Grasso (-120) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+100)

At last, a trilogy fight to hopefully settle things once and for all so the women’s flyweight division can finally move on to other business. Grasso pulled off a major upset as a big underdog in the first fight, then fought the former champ to a draw in the rematch. Now Grasso attempts to prove that she really does deserve that belt while Shevchenko tries to cash in on what could be her last best chance to get it back.

Shevchenko has looked like the better kickboxer in this pairing, but she’s also showed some signs of slowing down at this stage of her career. Grasso has less polish, but she makes up for it with a dangerous submission game and a bend-but-don’t-break approach to defense. Grasso’s not giving up that title easily, and Shevchenko has seemed generally less intimidating now that her championship aura is gone.

Brian Ortega (+150) vs. Diego Lopes (-185)

Ortega’s had a rough road to get here, but lately fans seem to be coming around to the idea that he’s not done just yet. His jiu-jitsu is always a threat, and when he gets to do his stuff he’s one of the best in the division.

Lopes has been consistently overperforming for the last year or so, suggesting that maybe it’s time to finally take him seriously. He’s got power on the feet and he seems to gain more confidence with every fight, which in turn translates to aggression and forward pressure.

Daniel Zellhuber (-225) vs. Esteban Ribovics (+185)

This one is on the main card for the sake of the Mexico (Zellhuber) versus Argentina (Ribovics) rivalry. Both are young fighters still making their way in the UFC, but Zellhuber probably has the edge in experience and quality of competition. Together they seem like a recipe for a three-round war that will force everyone else to up their game if they want that Fight of the Night bonus.

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-165) vs. Ode Osbourne (+140)

Rodriguez hasn’t lost a fight since his unsuccessful outing on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020. It’s been a long road from that to get back on the UFC’s radar, but his win on a UFC Fight Night event earlier this year was his sixth straight win. By comparison, Osbourne has been in the UFC for five years now and still has yet to really distinguish himself. He’s riding a two-fight losing streak and likely fighting for his job against a Mexican fighter who doesn’t exactly seem like someone the UFC brought here to lose on the Mexican Independence card.