WNBA playoffs: Caitlin Clark, Aces, Liberty highlight top postseason storylines

Cassandra Negley

The WNBA entered September in playoff mode, and after three weeks of jostling for positioning that came down to the final hours, it’s time for the true postseason to begin. There is team history on the line for the top seeds, and icons could be playing their final career games.

All eight playoff teams begin play Sunday in the best-of-three, first-round matchups.

The defending back-to-back champion Las Vegas Aces are in a new position as they attempt to three-peat. The franchise that won both titles as the No. 1 overall seed sits outside the top three for the first time since 2019. The road to a championship is more difficult in what could be the last year for the sensational core four.

Head coach Becky Hammon said beginning in training camp she didn’t see an edge from her squad and that it’s been missing much of the year. The Aces started 6-6 while three-time champion point guard Chelsea Gray rehabbed a leg injury and tried to find another gear over the last few weeks. A’ja Wilson, the presumptive MVP who broke the single-season scoring record, elevated her game to even more dominant levels, but can’t win games alone.

It could be the final run for the core four that carry the vast majority of the Aces' offense. Wilson (2018 No. 1 overall pick) signed a two-year contract extension in June 2023, while Gray (2021 free agency) and guard Jackie Young (2019 No. 1 pick) signed two-year extensions this past spring. Kelsey Plum (2017 No. 1 overall pick) is an unrestricted free agent, per Her Hoop Stats data. Reserves Tiffany Hayes, Alysha Clark and Sydney Colson are also UFAs, possibly opening 40% of their salary cap in what will be an active offseason.

The Aces weren’t as successful at home this year compared to last year when they went 19-1. The Aces will host the first two games of the first round against Seattle. They could meet New York in a Finals rematch in the semifinals that would begin with two games in Brooklyn.

The Houston Comets are the only team in WNBA history to three-peat by winning the league’s first four championships. The playoffs then were two rounds of best-of-three.

(Gregory Hodge/Yahoo Sports illustration)
(Gregory Hodge/Yahoo Sports illustration)

The Liberty franchise knows how to reach a WNBA Finals. How to win one is another story. New York is the only original franchise without a championship despite five Finals appearances, including last year’s loss to the Aces. Might this finally be the year?

The Liberty have put themselves in a pristine spot with the No. 1 overall seed, an All-Star-laden starting five that’s been together two seasons and a deeper bench. Though they stayed atop the standings throughout the majority of the season, their playoff path could prove problematic. New York could face Las Vegas in the semifinals and Minnesota in the Finals. Both teams have given them trouble in the final weeks of the regular season.

The Liberty squandered a 20-point lead against the Aces and had to battle to win, 75-71. It was reminiscent of the 2023 Finals and a reminder that Las Vegas won’t go down quietly. A week later against Minnesota, the Liberty dug themselves into a 26-point hole — their largest deficit of the season — and couldn’t climb back in an 88-79 loss despite a monster 38-point, 18-rebound performance by defending MVP Breanna Stewart.

Sabrina Ionescu, an MVP contender whose improved play has lifted New York, hasn’t shot the ball as well after the All-Star/Olympic break. She’s hit fewer than 30% of her attempts six times and all but one are since the break. She was 4-of-21 against Minnesota (2-of-12 from 3) and 6-of-21 against Las Vegas (1-of-9 from 3). That isn’t enough from the star guard to overcome the league’s best. The Liberty will also need to establish Jonquel Jones early and more often to win these series, should they come to fruition.

A championship for Minnesota or Seattle would break the three-way tie with the defunct Houston Comets for most championships by a franchise in league history.

The Lynx have the best shot at becoming the first to five titles and could arguably be labeled the postseason favorite despite their No. 2 seed behind the Liberty. Minnesota waltzed into Brooklyn and dismantled the super-team with their “collective,” in Cheryl Reeve’s words, putting up a historic assist rate, excellent defense and superb 3-point shooting.

Minnesota won its four championships within a seven-year span in the 2010s under Reeve. The franchise retired the final jersey — Maya Moore's — from that legendary group this summer.

Seattle’s super-team enters with longer odds. The Storm won their four titles in three different decades, the last of which was in 2020 with Sue Bird, Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd. Phoenix could tie them all with a fourth franchise championship this season.

Is this the last time we’ll see Diana Taurasi playing in the WNBA? It’s a smart marketing tactic to sell regular-season home tickets, but also a valid question. The three-time WNBA champion and 2009 MVP finished her 20th playing season and has long said she wasn’t going to “ease my way out.” It’s in character to go the route of Candace Parker, making an offseason decision without any fanfare, rather than the route of Sue Bird, who went on a “retirement tour” in her final season.

Taurasi said this week she doesn’t want to make any “emotional, rash decisions,” and though she knows the “end is near,” she doesn’t know when exactly that is right now. Taurasi is an unrestricted free agent and already said she would not try for the 2028 Olympics, an indication the end of her career is coming within the next four years.

The No. 2 Lynx host the No. 7 Mercury in the first round with the first two games in Minneapolis. Phoenix will have to steal one to play the determining Game 3 at home in front of the X-Factor faithful.

Taurasi, 42, won two Finals MVPs in a career spent entirely in Phoenix. Whether this offseason or another, she will retire holding a plethora of records, including the most points in WNBA history with a significant lead over Tina Charles. The 2019 logo refresh is believed to be based on Taurasi and features her signature bun.

The Sun are one of the winningest franchises over the last decade, but there’s no championship to show for it. Within that time span, they’ve added splashy free-agent signings, switched coaches and pulled a rare midseason trade. Is this finally their season, and if it’s not, how do they get there?

The Sun are all-in on competing for the chip after shoring up their 3-point shooting and offensive spacing with Marina Mabrey, who joined them during the break after asking for a trade out of Chicago. Defense remains the Sun’s calling card with a league-best 94.5 defensive rating and merely average offensive rating (their 102 offensive rating ranks seventh).

But Connecticut amassed most of its wins against the bottom of the league and struggled otherwise. The Sun are 4-9 against the rest of the top five: Liberty (1-3), Lynx (2-1), Storm (1-2) and Aces (0-3). And two of those wins against Minnesota were in the first half of the season. That should give fans pause on the Sun in later rounds, if the team can advance past the first. Connecticut will face Indiana, one of the hottest teams since the Olympic break.

The Sun will have big decisions to make in the offseason either way. Their longtime core of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones are unrestricted free agents, according to Her Hoop Stats. Bonner and Jones signed one-year deals last summer. Mabrey is one of three players signed for 2025. She and reserve forward Olivia Nelson-Ododa are on guaranteed contracts, and Tyasha Harris is unprotected. The WNBA has not announced how the expansion draft will work for the Golden State Valkyries, so certain players' statuses are still uncertain.

They’re also at a disadvantage in luring star free agents. They are without a team-specific practice facility — the active arms race amongst elite franchises — and have the toughest travel as the most rural team in the league.

The question on everyone’s minds for weeks: How far can the Fever go?

Matching up with Connecticut in the first round is a favorable draw for Indiana to reach the semifinals for the first time since its Finals appearance in 2015. Indiana is a much different team than the one that suffered a 21-point blowout loss to open the season in Connecticut.

Caitlin Clark is playing more like a seasoned vet as her rookie season comes to a close, and Kelsey Mitchell is healthy after playing limited minutes due to an ankle injury in the preseason. They’ve formed the league’s most dangerous backcourt, averaging a combined 49.1 points since the All-Star/Olympic break, which is up from 35 prior.

Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith are more comfortable with Clark, and Lexie Hull’s perimeter shooting gives the team three dangerous threats. After losing three to the Sun within the league’s first month, Indiana blew open the Sun’s league-best defense to win the fourth meeting last month while shooting 43% from 3.

It is the third season the WNBA is using the best-of-three, first-round series, and the Sun went the full three games each of the last two years as the No. 3 seed. In 2022, they lost Game 2 and had to head to Dallas. In 2023, the Sun lost Game 2 again and had to head to Minnesota.

They’re on upset alert again in 2024.

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